Many members of my Inner Circle have asked the same question this week: Is it time to buy?

If I had to choose between “Buy” and “Sell”, I’d say “Buy”, by a big margin.

Having said that, I’m obliged to repeat a caveat you’ve often heard from me over the years: Nobody can predict these things consistently. If you could do that, …read more »

Market weakness early in 2008 unsettled investors who are believers in the so-called ‘January barometer’ — the idea that January’s performance provides a clue to understanding the stock market for the rest of the year. However, this indicator is something of a self-fulfilling prediction, because it lumps January’s results in with results of the remaining 11 months.

If the market goes …read more »

China holds $1.4 trillion in U.S. dollars, and has talked of selling some of them. This brings to mind the proverbial boy-who-held-the-tiger-by-the-tail.

It took China decades to build this hoard. Dumping part of it would undermine the value of the remainder. Moreover, China needs U.S. goodwill. It needs buying by U.S. consumers far more than they need cheap manufactured goods. The …read more »

The best exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer well-diversified, tax-efficient portfolios with very low management fees. Due to buyback and share issue arrangements, ETFs always trade close to their net asset value.

Here are some of the best deals available in ETFs. We’ve also analysed one we don’t like.

ISHARES CDN LARGECAP 60 INDEX FUND $79.86 (Toronto symbol XIU; buy or sell through a …read more »

In our July 27 Hotline, I said the market downturn could go on till October. I felt it could ultimately knock another 5% to as much as 15% off the market indexes, from July 27 levels. However, I felt the index losses would be temporary and markets would go to new highs in 2008.

I also felt speculative areas would suffer …read more »

Last month we pointed out that we were in a particularly dangerous time in the market — a time you might call the ‘hey, this-is-easy’ segment of the market cycle, particularly for investing newcomers.

That’s when it may seem that you (or your broker) can do no wrong. But since then the market has gone into a steep decline, ostensibly due …read more »

If last week’s downturn makes you wonder if you should sell all your stocks, keep in mind that the world economy and stock market stand to gain from three special factors, just like McKesson.

Starting in the early 1990s, I’ve regularly pointed out that these special factors are often overlooked or under-estimated. They are:

1. The baby boomers remain in the prime …read more »

It’s always best to base investment plans on an entire market cycle — boom, bust and everything in between. That’s also the way to judge investment advice and advisors. No one can consistently predict market trends, and it’s a costly error to invest as if you can.

One common way to guess wrong is to take the recent past as a …read more »

Exchange Traded Funds or ETFs are among the more benign investment innovations of our time. Unlike other innovations, they don’t load you up with heavy management fees, nor tie you down with heavy redemption charges if you decide to get out before six years have passed. Instead, they give you a lower-cost and more flexible and convenient alternative to mutual …read more »

As we said in our March 2 Successful Investor Hotline, North American stock markets could be sluggish or weak for a month or two.

Since then, investor fears have shifted from China to so-called “sub-prime” lending to home buyers with less-than-sterling credit ratings. Investors fear that if tighter lending standards shut these buyers out of the market, it will have a …read more »