AGRIUM INC. $115(Toronto symbol AGU; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 138.2 million; Market cap: $15.9 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.1; Dividend yield: 3.9%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.agrium.com) sells seeds, fertilizers and other agricultural products to farmers through 1,400 stores in North America, South America and Australia. In 2015, those retail outlets supplied 70% of its earnings.
The remaining 30% of earnings came from the production of fertilizers—both nitrogen- and phosphate- based. Agrium also mines potash.
The company plans to open 30 new stores in the U.S. by 2020. It’s also paying an undisclosed sum to Cargill Inc. for 18 of its stores in the U.S. Midwest. These moves should expand Agrium’s share of the U.S. farm-supplies market to 25%. That’s up from its current level of 17%.
Another area of growth is Agrium’s financing business. This operation lends money to farmers to cover the cost of their supplies. Farmers use their crops and other assets as collateral for these loans. That helps cut Agrium’s credit risk.
The company expects its financing operations to contribute as much as $50 million to its annual gross earnings by 2020 (all amounts except share price in U.S. dollars). Last year, gross earnings totaled $2.1 billion U.S.
These moves will help shield the company from volatile fertilizer prices. Due to the recent decline in prices, Agrium expects to earn between $5.25 and $6.25 a share in 2016. That’s down from its earlier forecast of $5.50 to $7.00 a share. The stock trades at 15.4 times the midpoint of the lower range.
As well, the company will probably generate free cash flow (cash flow less capital expenditures) of $5.15 a share this year. That easily covers its $3.50 dividend, which yields 3.9%.
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