Topic: How To Invest

What is Pat’s commentary for the week of July 11, 2017

Article Excerpt

Dear Inner Circle Member, For centuries, people have been looking for recurring patterns in trading activity that they can use to gain an advantage over other investors. Many try to link stock-price trends and turning points to months or dates on the calendar. Others look to events outside the market for guidance. They create rules and indicators that seem to have “worked” in the past. When you evaluate these patterns and rules, you have to keep one key fact in mind: random events often occur in bunches. When you flip a coin, any heads-tails pattern of any length can repeat any number of times. The string of repeating patterns can end abruptly, or taper off over time. But eventually, over long periods, heads will come up about as often as tails. The so-called “Super Bowl theory” is an obvious case of a randomly repeating pattern. The Super Bowl is an annual football championship game played each winter since 1967. In the 1970s, sportswriter Leonard…