Market Turbulence – Fearing the Worst

Article Excerpt

The mortgage crisis continues to weigh not just on financial stocks, but on the overall stock market. That’s mainly because investors are bracing themselves for much worse news than we’ve seen so far, such as much higher mortgage defaults. Investors also worry that Washington’s plan to buy up bad mortgage loans and illiquid securities, at a cost of up to $700 billion, will spur much higher inflation. But this will only happen if we see much higher default rates, plus much deeper house-price drops. We see little reason to worry about these extreme outcomes. As investors become more familiar with the situation, fears may ease. The stock market is likely to stay volatile until after the November election. After that, we could see a six-month rebound in prices. Nobody can predict market turbulence. But I suspect we are much closer to the bottom than to the top. Now more than ever, investors need to focus on our three-part program: 1) invest mainly in well-established…