Fertilizer stocks: 1 buy & 1 hold

Article Excerpt

Bad weather and increasing production have hurt fertilizer prices. As a result, Potash Corp. and Agrium have cut their 2016 earnings forecasts. We still like both companies, but Agrium’s expanding retail business makes it the better choice. POTASH CORP. OF SASKATCHEWAN $21 (Toronto symbol POT; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 839.4 million; Market cap: $17.6 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 3.3; Dividend yield: 6.2%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.potashcorp.com) gets 40% of its revenue and 50% of its earnings from potash, followed by nitrogen (35%, 40%) and phosphate (25%, 10%) fertilizers. Due to weak potash demand and lower prices, the company recently suspended production at its mine in Picadilly, New Brunswick. It started up in early 2015. Severance and other costs totaled $32 million (all amounts except share price and market cap in U.S. dollars). That’s partly why Potash Corp.’s earnings in the three months ended March 31, 2016, fell 79.7%, to $75 million, or $0.09 a share. A year earlier,…