Even before the phenomenal industry-wide gains of 2022, Imperial Oil was a long-term buy for our subscribers.
In fact, the stock has delivered a 1,639.2% gain for our investors since we first recommended it as a buy in April 1995.
We love this Canadian giant because it adds to its gains in periods of both high and low oil prices. At the same time, the stability of its integrated operations backs a solid 2.4% dividend yield.
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Meanwhile, cash flow at this top oil producer remains strong. This lets it return more of that cash to its shareholders.
The shares currently trade at just 8.4 times forecast cash flow.
IMPERIAL OIL LTD. (Toronto symbol IMO; www.imperialoil.ca) gets about 90% of its production from oil sands operations in Alberta. Other operations include three refineries (one in Alberta and two in Ontario) and a petrochemical plant in Sarnia, Ontario. It also supplies gasoline to over 2,000 Esso and Mobil gas stations in Canada. ExxonMobil (New York symbol XOM) owns 69.6% of the company’s shares.
The company recently announced that it will build a “renewable” diesel fuel complex at its Strathcona refinery near Edmonton.
Renewable diesel is a biofuel produced from wood, crops and vegetable oils. The new facility will produce 20,000 barrels a day of renewable diesel when it begins operating in 2025.
Imperial will spend $720 million on this project. Some of those costs are included in the company’s previously announced plan to spend $1.7 billion on capital upgrades and exploration in 2023.
Energy Stocks: Imperial Oil’s payout, revenue and cash flow all improve
With the April 2024 payment, Imperial has raised your quarterly dividend by 20.0%, to $0.60 a share from $0.50. The new annual rate of $2.40 yields 2.4%.
With this latest increase, Imperial has now raised its dividend by an average of 25.9% annually over the past 5 years. Its TSI Dividend Sustainability Rating is Above Average.
Imperial Oil’s revenue climbed 39.6%, from $25.0 billion in 2016 to $35.0 billion in 2018. Revenue dropped 2.8% in 2019, to $34.0 billion. That was mainly because the Government of Alberta announced mandatory reductions in 2019 to oil and bitumen production in an attempt to narrow the price differential received for Alberta oil and bitumen compared to higher North American benchmark prices.
Revenue then fell 34.5% in 2020, to $22.3 billion. Energy prices fell along with a pandemic-induced slowdown in consumer and commercial activity. That included a steep decline in demand for gasoline, and an even sharper fall in jet-fuel prices. Revenue then rebounded by 68.3% in 2021, to $37.5 billion, as energy prices rose along with an improving global economy. Imperial’s revenue then took a big jump in 2022, climbing 58.7% to $59.7 billion along with much stronger oil and gas prices. In 2023, revenue fell 14.6%, to $51.0 billion. That decline was mostly due to lower oil and gas prices.
The company’s cash flow also rose between 2016 and 2018. Specifically, it climbed 177.9%, from $1.7 billion, or $1.96 a share, in 2016 to $4.6 billion, or $5.72 a share, 2018. Cash flow fell 23.9% in 2019 to $3.5 billion, or $4.61 a share. In 2020, cash flow dropped 75.0% to $880.0 million, or $1.20 a share. In 2021, cash flow rose sharply to $4.5 billion, or $6.32 a share. Cash flow then jumped another 100.1% in 2022 to $9.0 billion, or $14.06 a share. In 2023, cash flow then fell along with revenue, by 28.5%, to $6.4 billion, or $11.20 a share.
In the quarter ended December 31, 2023, Imperial produced an average 452,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. That’s up 2.5% from 441,000 a year earlier. However, due to lower realized crude prices, its revenue in the quarter fell 9.3%, to $13.11 billion from $14.45 billion a year earlier.
Cash flow also dropped, down 26.6% to $1.80 billion from $2.45 billion. Due to fewer shares outstanding, cash flow per share declined at a slower rate of 20.2%, to $3.25 from $4.07.
Imperial’s long-term debt of $4.0 billion is a low 7.5% of its market cap. It also holds cash of $864 million.
Imperial now plans to spend $1.70 billion on capital upgrades and exploration in 2024, down from $1.78 billion in 2023. The company also expects to produce between 420,000 and 442,000 barrels a day in 2024. The midpoint of that range—431,000—is about 4% higher than its production of 413,000 barrels a day for all of 2023.
Higher output and improving productivity will probably lift the company’s projected cash flow per share to $11.76 in 2024. The stock trades at just 8.4 times that estimate.
We hope you benefited from this analysis of Imperial Oil. The company is just one of the top-performing stock picks of our Dividend Advisor investor newsletter.
Of course, not all our picks over the years have produced these kind of spectacular gains. Some, in fact, have led to losses. But all portfolios need superstar stocks like this to offset those inevitable losses.
This post was originally published in April 2023 and is regularly updated.
Comments
Richard
What happened to the old saying that past performance is not indicative of future returns, especially for the commodity that this equity is based on. Still trying to decide on which is a better investment SU or IMO or maybe hold both. I like the carrier more than the producer.
Sir
Why not on a continuing basis highlight the dividend on all your recommended stocks for the past 2 yrs if possible. Confirms greater consistency for investors looking for that essential data
Regards,
JohnHastings
Thanks for your question. The daily emails—including the Imperial Oil one you are referring to—are designed as an introduction for free subscribers to TSI’s wealth of premium subscriber content, from our seven individual newsletters to Pat’s Inner Circle and Inner Circle Pro memberships.
As such, they include only a certain level of dividend analysis.
Please note, though, that our Dividend Advisor newsletter aims to give you an in-depth look at a company’s dividend sustainability—including its Dividend Sustainability Rating, plus relevant history, future dividend projections and so on.
Thanks for your comment, Gerard. Please note that for subscribers, we have covered Imperial Oil’s share buyback extensively in our monthly issues and weekly Hotlines.
I decided to re-balance my portfolio in early January and based on Pat’s recommendation , added IMO to my R and C portion and I am happy with the addition. IMO today is up YTD at 21.44 % and I am showing a gain of approximately 11%.
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What happened to the old saying that past performance is not indicative of future returns, especially for the commodity that this equity is based on. Still trying to decide on which is a better investment SU or IMO or maybe hold both. I like the carrier more than the producer.
Thanks, Richard, for sharing your thoughts. We continue to like both of these integrated oil producers and their long-term outlook.
Sir
Why not on a continuing basis highlight the dividend on all your recommended stocks for the past 2 yrs if possible. Confirms greater consistency for investors looking for that essential data
Regards,
JohnHastings
Thanks for your question. The daily emails—including the Imperial Oil one you are referring to—are designed as an introduction for free subscribers to TSI’s wealth of premium subscriber content, from our seven individual newsletters to Pat’s Inner Circle and Inner Circle Pro memberships.
As such, they include only a certain level of dividend analysis.
Please note, though, that our Dividend Advisor newsletter aims to give you an in-depth look at a company’s dividend sustainability—including its Dividend Sustainability Rating, plus relevant history, future dividend projections and so on.
Amazing ! Why not a single word about IMO’s November 2023 offer to buy back 1 500 000 000 $ of its common stocks ?
Thanks for your comment, Gerard. Please note that for subscribers, we have covered Imperial Oil’s share buyback extensively in our monthly issues and weekly Hotlines.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that for subscribers, we covered Imperial Oil’s share buyback in our monthly issues.
I decided to re-balance my portfolio in early January and based on Pat’s recommendation , added IMO to my R and C portion and I am happy with the addition. IMO today is up YTD at 21.44 % and I am showing a gain of approximately 11%.
Thanks for your feedback. We still see Imperial Oil as a buy.