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Topic: ETFs

China’s potential rewards match its risks


MSCI China ETF LISTEN:  

Massive growth in the export of cheap manufactured goods has driven China’s economic success over the past two decades. However, developed countries—and especially the U.S., given newly imposed tariffs—are increasingly reluctant to buy more Chinese goods. As a result, China will need to find other sources of growth.

Here is one ETF that provides exposure to the country’s top publicly listed companies.

ISHARES MSCI CHINA ETF $65 (Nasdaq symbol MCHI; TSINetwork ETF Rating: Aggressive; Market cap: $3.5 billion) tracks the performance of the largest publicly listed Chinese companies.

Technology stocks account for 29% of its assets, while Financial Services (22%), Consumer cyclical (19%), Real estate (5%), Industrials (5%), Energy (4%) and Communication Services (4%) are other key segments.

The ETF holds a large portfolio of 287 stocks, although the top 10 make up a high 53% of its assets. They are Tencent Holdings (Internet services, 16.3%), Alibaba Group (e-commerce, 12.7%), China Construction Bank (5.2%), Baidu ADR (Internet services, 4.0%), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (3.0%), Ping An Insurance Group (financial services, 2.8%), Bank of China (2.3%), CNOOC Ltd (energy, 1.8%), JD.com Inc. (e-commerce, 1.8%) and China Petroleum (1.3%). The large percentage of the fund’s assets in the top two stocks creates significant company-specific risk for the ETF.

The fund started up in March 2011 and charges an MER of 0.62%. With an average of $147 million in units trading daily, the ETF provides strong liquidity.

Based on the forward earnings of the companies the ETF holds, it has a p/e of 11.4. The fund pays a fluctuating dividend twice a year. Over the past 12 months that payment amounted to $1.16 for a yield of 1.8%.

By land mass, China is the fourth-largest country in the world and, with 1.4 billion people, has the largest population. That makes for a labour force of over 800 million. For centuries, China was a leading centre of the arts and sciences, but in the 19th and early 20th centuries it had to deal with civil unrest, famines, military defeats and foreign occupation.

After the Second World War, the Communist Party of China under Mao Zedong established a centrally controlled economic system that imposed strict controls over everyday life. After 1978, Mao’s successor Deng Xiaoping focused on market-oriented development. That spurred economic growth through manufacturing.

The Chinese economy used to be the largest in the world, going back to the 1800s. For the next 150 years the Western economies dominated, but in 2010 China became the world’s largest exporter. In terms of purchasing power parity, it then became the world’s largest economy six years later in 2016. Over the past 20 years, Chinese economic growth has averaged 9.1% per year. While the International Monetary Fund expects that growth to slow in the coming years, it should stay above 6% per year.

China’s significant investments in domestic infrastructure, the expansion of heavy industry, such as steel and chemical manufacturing, and the massive growth in Chinese exports have driven its economic growth.

Between 2000 and mid-2018, exports have increased by over 1,000%, or an average 60% per year. Prior to U.S.-imposed tariffs on Chinese imports, it was China’s largest export customer, taking 19% of Chinese exports. The U.S. portion of Chinese exports has remained fairly stable over time at about 20% (see chart of page 75). Hong Kong and Japan are also key buyers of Chinese goods.

In March 2016, the government unveiled its 13th Five-Year Plan. It stresses the need for China to increase innovation and boost domestic consumption. Both are key to decreasing the economy’s dependence on government investment, exports, and heavy industry. As a result, China has implemented several initiatives aimed at driving economic growth in the years ahead.

One example is the “Belt and Road” development plan. Its goal is to establish land and sea trade corridors to link China, Asia, the Middle East and Europe. Together, those regions make up 60% of the world’s population, 30% of its GDP and 25% of global trade.

Another example is China’s focus on developing a global-leading electric vehicle market by 2030. Regulations already require the country’s automakers to increase the proportion of electric vehicles in their lineups.

Generally, Chinese companies have improved their global standing dramatically over the past 15 years.

In 2003, just 43 Chinese firms were ranked in the world’s top 2,000; by 2017, that number had grown to 291. Today, of the top 100 global companies, 21 are Chinese, compared to 30 from the U.S. The rapid rise of Chinese technology companies, such as Tencent, Baidu and Alibaba, has also propelled Chinese e-commerce to the top of the global ranking with a 42% market share compared to 24% for the U.S.

Although corporate and private debt levels are very high, government finances are in good shape: the public debt to GDP ratio is 19%; and China’s senior unsecured foreign debt issues have an A+ rating from both S&P and Fitch. In 2017, the government deficit was somewhat high at 4.0% of GDP.

Government consumption, on the other hand, makes up a low 15% of the Chinese economy, while taxes and other government revenues contribute a moderate 22% .

Inflation is low and stable—currently at 1.8%. The central bank policy rate of 2.4% and the 10-year government bond rate of 3.6% reflect that stability.

China’s yuan is managed by the People’s Bank of China against a basket of currencies. This has resulted in a stable currency over the past 10 years. Still, the brewing trade war with the U.S. has seen the value of the yuan drop about 5% against the U.S. dollar over the past few weeks.

In line with the broader Chinese market, the iShares MSCI China ETF has declined sharply since January 2018.

However, over the past year, the units are still up 18.7% compared to a 10.4% gain for the broadly based MSCI World Equity Index. Over the past 5 years, the ETF is up 71.2%. That’s well above the world index’s 58.8% gain.

For aggressive investors who want exposure to China, the iShares MSCI China ETF is a sound choice.

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