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Topic: ETFs

Economic reforms bolster this Indian ETF


ETf India LISTEN:  

India continues its impressive expansion, and remains one of the world’s top ten fastest growing economies.

The country’s major structural reforms, such as the introduction of a nationwide goods and services tax and better funding for state-owned banks, should further speed up growth for 2018 and 2019.

ISHARES INDIA INDEX ETF $36 (Toronto symbol XID; TSI Network ETF Rating: Aggressive; Market cap: $68.3 million) tracks the performance of the largest publicly listed Indian companies.

The ETF holds a portfolio of 50 stocks. Financials account for 35% of its assets, while Industrials (12%), Oil and Gas (13%), Consumer Goods (13%) and Technology (11%) are also key segments.

The fund’s top 10 holdings make up 49% of its assets. They are Reliance Industries (oil refining, 7.8%), Housing Development Finance Corp. (6.8%), ITC (tobacco, 5.6%), HDFC Bank (5.0%), ICICI Bank (4.9%), Infosys (IT services, 4.6%), Larsen & Toubro (engineering, 3.7%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (3.4%), Tata Consultancy (IT services, 3.2%) and State Bank of India (3.0%).

The ETF started up in January 2010 and has a relatively high MER of 0.98%. With an average of just $90,000 in units trading daily, the fund provides limited liquidity. It has a p/e of 21.9 based on its forward earnings.

India has enjoyed rapid economic growth for the last 20 years, averaging a 7% annual rise in its gross domestic product (GDP) between 1999 to 2008. Growth has since slowed, although the economy likely expanded by 6.7% for 2017. Important structural reforms should boost economic growth for 2018 and 2019.

In July 2017, a nationwide goods and services tax was implemented, replacing 16 different types of state and federal taxes with one common system. This will simplify the tax system, ease trade barriers between states, improve tax collection, and reduce the cost of capital goods.

The reform followed the government’s move in late 2016 to eliminate large-denomination rupee bills. The move exposed the part of the economy that operated outside of India’s legal and tax framework. Currently, 95% of all payments are made in cash, but the tax and currency changes should push people towards digital payments.

The government has also improved pensions and wages for public-sector workers and plans to refinance major public banks. They contend with high levels of bad loans.

Major infrastructure projects, including the addition of 35,000 kilometres of new highways, will further boost growth in the medium term: GDP should expand by 7.4% for 2018 and 8% 2019.

Inflation continues to run around 4%—down sharply from over 10% in 2012. Interest rates remain well above inflation, which gives the Central Bank room to cut rates in order to maintain its economic expansion.

The government budget deficit is over 6% of GDP, but improved tax collection should help to reduce that shortfall. India’s debt/GDP ratio is 48%, less than half of the G7 average of 119%. The country holds an investment-grade credit score with each of the major rating agencies.

The Indian rupee—an indicator of India’s political and economic conditions—continues its recovery. It reached an all-time low against the U.S. dollar in November 2016.

This ETF has delivered a strong performance over the past year, gaining 28.0%. That’s slightly better than the globally focused MSCI Emerging Market Index.

For aggressive investors who want exposure to India, the iShares India Index ETF is a sound choice.

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