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Topic: ETFs

ETF profits from an emerging Poland


MSCI Poland ETF LISTEN:  

Poland has a troubled history of foreign occupation and communist government. However, the country moved away from that political system in 1990, joined NATO in 1999 and was accepted into the European Union in 2004. This has encouraged stability and helped to increase prosperity.

This ETF holds many of Poland’s top public companies.

ISHARES MSCI POLAND ETF $24 (New York symbol EPOL; TSI Network ETF Rating: Aggressive; Market cap: $328.0 million) tracks the performance of the largest publicly listed Polish companies.

Financial Services account for 47% of its assets. Oil and Gas (16%), Basic Materials (8%), Consumer Goods (8%), Consumer Services (7%) and Utilities (6%) are other key segments.

The ETF holds a portfolio of 39 stocks. The top 10 make up high 66% of its assets. They are PKO Bank Polski (financials, 14.8%), Polski Koncern Naftowy (energy, 10.1%), Powszecny Zaklad Ubezpieczen (financials, 9.9%), Bank Pekau (financials, 6.9%), LLP SA (consumer cyclical, 4.6%), Bank Zachodni (financials, 4.5%), Polish Oil and Gas Co. (energy, 4.2%), KGHM Polska Miedz (basic materials, 4.0%), Polska Grupa (utility, 3.4%) and CD Projekt (technology, 3.1%).

The fund started up in May 2010 and charges an MER of 0.63%. With an average of $7.6 million in units trading daily, the ETF provides reasonable liquidity.

It has a p/e of 11.0 based on the forecast 2018 earnings of its stocks. The fund pays a fluctuating annual dividend, which amounted to $0.51 for 2017 and a yield of 2.1%.

After a turbulent and violent history, which includes periods of Russian and German occupation, Poland’s modern-day liberation started with its move away from communist rule in 1990. It then joined NATO in 1999 before campaigning for and earning European Union membership in 2004. That has brought much needed stability and growth to the economy.

Poland is a country with a democratic system of government. The Head of State—its president—is elected by a majority of voters for a five-year term. The political system is based on the separation of legislative, executive and judicial powers.

With a population of 38 million, Poland is a mid-sized country, with a GDP of $509 billion. That makes it the 25th largest economy in the world. Manufacturing contributes 40% of output, while Services comprise 58%. Agriculture now makes up just 2% of GDP. Net exports (exports minus imports) contribute 4% to the economy. Those products include machinery and manufactured goods. They are mostly bound for export to Germany, the U.K. and the Czech Republic.

GDP per capita was $29,300 (adjusted for purchasing power) in 2017. That earned Poland 66th spot in the world rankings, along with Portugal, Malaysia, Russia and Greece. Canada, with a GDP per capita of $48,100, is ranked number 34 in the world.

Poland has reached mid-high-income status over a relatively short period of time. Few middle-income countries have experienced such consistent broad-based growth, That growth was spurred by increases in productivity, strengthened institutions, human capital investments, and sound macroeconomic management. Growth has also been fast yet stable (on average 3.6% over the past decade).

Booming domestic demand boosted real GDP growth to 4.6% in 2017 from 2.9% in 2016. Powered by an extremely strong labour market and social spending, private consumption grew by 4.8%, adding 2.8 percentage points to GDP growth. The economy is expected to grow at a healthy 4.2% in 2018—slightly above the global rate of 3.9%.

Since 2015, Poland has implemented new business restrictions and taxes on foreign-dominated economic sectors, including banking and insurance, energy, and health care.

The government also reduced the retirement age in 2016 and has had mixed success in introducing new taxes and boosting tax compliance to offset the costs of social spending programs and to ease the growth of its budget deficits.

The country ranked number 39 out of 137 countries in the 2017 Global Competitiveness Index (see box this page). This ranking has been improving over the past 10 years. Poland ranked 51 in 2007. The country scores well in such areas as access to foreign markets, GDP growth, mobile cellular subscribers, country credit ratings and a lack of trade tariffs.

The country’s finances are in reasonable shape, with a moderate government debt-to-GDP ratio of 49% and a 2017 fiscal deficit of 2.4% of GDP.

Government consumption makes up 18% of the economy. That’s in line with the OECD average. Taxes and other government revenues are the equivalent of 18% of the economy.

Inflation is reasonably low and stable—estimated at around 2.5% for 2018. Central bank policy rates and 10-year government bond rates are low at 1.5% and 3.0%, respectively.

Despite being a member of the European Union, the country still maintains its own currency—the zloty. Against the euro, the currency has been relatively stable with short bouts of volatility in 2008/09 and 2011.

The ETF has lagged the performance of the broader MSCI World Equity Index over the past five years. Over the past year, the fund is up 4.1%, compared to 14.0% for the broader MSCI World Equity Index.

For aggressive investors who want exposure to Poland, the iShares Poland ETF is a sound choice.

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