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Topic: ETFs

Norway looks to ease its energy dependence


MSCI Norway ETF LISTEN:  

An abundance of oil and natural gas resources has made Norway one of the wealthiest countries in the world. However, efforts are underway to diversify its economy beyond natural resources, and there are early signs of success.

Time will tell how complete or successful that transition is. Meanwhile the country’s economy and stock market will likely remain heavily influenced by energy prices.

Here is an ETF that provides exposure to many of Norway’s top companies.

GLOBAL X MSCI NORWAY ETF $14 (New York symbol NORW; TSI Network ETF Rating: Aggressive; Market cap: $156.8 million) invests in the largest publicly listed Norwegian companies.

The ETF aims to track the MSCI Norway Index. The components of this index are weighted by market capitalization.

Energy accounts for 29% of the fund’s assets by industry segment, while Financials (24%), Consumer Staples (14%), Materials (11%) and Telecommunications (10%) are other key segments.

The ETF holds a portfolio of 60 stocks. The top 10 holdings make up a high 60% of its assets. They are Statoil (energy, 17.3%), DNB ASA (financial services, 12.1%), Telenor (telecommunications, 10.7%), Norsk Hydro (aluminum and hydro electricity, 4.7%), Marine Harvest (consumer defensive, 4.6%), Orkla (consumer defensive, 4.5%), Yara International (basic materials, 4.1%), Storebrans (financial services, 2.9%), Subsea 7 SA (energy, 2.8%) and Gjensidige Forsikring (financial services, 2.7%).

The 40% of assets held in the top three holdings increases the risk those individual stocks may hurt overall portfolio performance.

The ETF started up in November 2010 and has a MER of 0.50%. With an average of $1.3 million in units trading daily, the fund provides limited liquidity.

It has a p/e of 14.0 based on its forward earnings and pays a fluctuating annual dividend. In 2017, that dividend amounted to $0.38 a unit, for a yield of 2.7%.

Norway is a small country with a population of 5.3 million. It has a stable political system with a constitutional monarchy and a democratically elected government. The country rejected European Union membership in a 1994 referendum, but still maintains membership in the European Union Economic Area.

Norway is richly endowed with natural resources such as oil and gas, fish, forests, and minerals. The petroleum industry provides about 9% of the country’s jobs, 12% of its gross domestic product (GDP) and 13% of its revenue.

Although it remains one of the world’s leading petroleum exporters, Norway’s oil production is nearly 50% below its peak in 2000. Gas production, conversely, has more than doubled since that time. The country produces about 1.7 million barrels of oil per day, which makes it the 15th largest global producer. It is also the world’s 8th largest producer of natural gas.

Based on current production and proved reserves, Norway has about 10 to 15 years worth of oil production and 20 to 25 years of natural gas production remaining. However, new discoveries in places like the Barents Sea could extend those estimates.

In anticipation of eventual declines in oil and gas production, the nation channels revenue from its activities in that industry to its sovereign wealth fund—the largest in the world. The fund was valued at $1 trillion U.S. at the end of 2017. That amount is 2.6 times the size of the national economy. Under the current fiscal spending rules, the government can spend 3% of the wealth fund per year.

Mostly as a result of its natural riches, Norway is considered a very wealthy country, with a GDP per person of over $70,600. By comparison, Canada’s was estimated at $48,100 for 2017.

The size of the Norwegian economy is about $376 billion and ranks number 49 in the world. After solid GDP growth from 2004 to 2007, the economy slowed in 2008, and contracted in 2009, before returning to modest, positive growth from 2010 to 2017.

GDP growth was 1.3% in 2017, largely driven by rising consumer demand as Norway’s labour market rebounded and its central bank maintained low interest rates. For 2018, growth is expected to accelerate to around 2.0% and remain above that for 2019.

The country’s debt to GDP ratio is a low 43%, while the government recorded a budget surplus of 4.2% of GDP for 2017. Norway’s oil and gas exports give it a global trade surplus.

Government spending accounts for a high 48.8% of GDP compared to 39.4% for Japan and 37.6% for the U.S.

Norway’s inflation is low and stable—estimated at around 2.0% for 2018. At the same time, the central bank is expected to raise interest rates before next year.

The Scandinavian country topped the 2017 Inclusive Development Index (World Economic Forum); it ranked Norway as the best at providing long-term sustainable growth, jobs for a great majority of its population, and reducing poverty.

However, energy wealth has prevented the formation of a fully diversified economy. In addition, critics of the country’s generous social benefits programs have argued that the average Norwegian’s work week of as little as 33 hours has resulted in a high level of worker complacency.

A government sponsored program is now underway to design a future free of dependence on oil and gas. Still, time will tell if the country successfully makes the transition to a post-energy-dependant economy.

For now, the Norwegian stock market is significantly tied to movements in the price of oil and gas.

Even though the companies represented in the Global X Norway ETF are from diverse industries, most of the largest ones have links to the country’s oil and gas industries.

The fund’s performance has lagged the broader MSCI World Equity Index over the past 5 years. However, the ETF has staged a strong recovery since early 2016 when oil prices began to recover.

Over the past year, the fund has gained 30.6% compared to the 15.8% for the regionally diverse MSCI World Equity Index.

For aggressive investors who want exposure to Norway, and are willing to accept its energy focus, the Global X Norway ETF is a sound choice.

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