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Topic: ETFs

Outlook is bright for big exporter Germany


ETf Germany LISTEN:  

Germany faces a number of challenges—its population is getting older and its workforce will start to shrink from 2020 onwards. In addition, its largest export markets, including the U.S. and the U.K., are less and less willing to run large trade deficits with Germany. However, the country remains the economic powerhouse of Europe and one of the top exporting countries globally. It’s also home to some of the top companies in the world.

Here’s an ETF that provides exposure to leading German publicly listed companies.

ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF $28.99 (Nasdaq symbol EWG; TSI Network ETF Rating: Aggressive; Market cap: $3.3 billion) tracks the performance of the largest publicly listed German companies.

Consumer discretionary stocks account for 17.1% of its assets, followed by Materials (14.4%), Financials (14.2%), Health care (13.5%), Industrials (13.3%), Information technology (12.7%), and Telecoms (4.4%).

The ETF holds a well-diversified portfolio of 68 stocks; the top 10 holdings make up a high 52% of its assets. They are SAP (business software, 8.2%), Siemens AG (industrials, 7.4%), Bayer AG (healthcare, 6.9%), Allianz (insurance, 6.7%), BASF (chemicals, 6.3%), Daimler AG (automobiles, 4.3%), Deutsche Telekom (telecommunications, 3.8%), Linde AG (chemicals, 3.3%), Adidas (consumer goods, 3.0%) and Fresenius SE & Co. (health care facilities, 2.4%).

The ETF started up in March 1996 and charges an MER of 0.49%. With an average of $109 million in units trading daily, the fund provides good liquidity.

It has a p/e of 12.7 based on its forward earnings and pays a fluctuating dividend twice a year. Over the past 12 months the dividend amounted to $0.83 for a yield of 2.9%.

The German economy is the fifth largest in the world and the largest in Europe as measured by the size of its gross domestic product (“GDP”).

The economy has performed well over the past decade, outpacing growth for other European Union nations. In 2017, it grew by 2.5% as consumer spending picked up and exports boomed. The International Monetary Fund expects Germany’s annual growth to remain above 2% for 2018 and 2019.

Exports represent almost 40% of the county’s GDP, making Germany the third-largest exporting country in the world (after China and the U.S.). Those goods include motor vehicles, machinery, chemicals, computer and electronic products, electrical equipment, pharmaceuticals, metals, transport equipment, foodstuffs, textiles, rubber and plastic products. The top five export destinations are the U.S., France, China, Netherlands and the U.K.

The Germany’s export success has also resulted in large trade surpluses with many trading partners. This includes a $65 billion trade surplus with the U.S. In 2017 the country had an overall trade surplus (exports of goods minus imports) of 7.6% of GDP—one of the highest in the world.

Still, protectionist trade policies by the U.S. as well as a “hard” Brexit could significantly slow Germany’s economic growth by reducing exports and cutting its trade surplus.

Still, the country maintains a strong fiscal position, with an annual government budget surplus since 2014. This comes despite government expenditures of over 40% of GDP. Government public debt to GDP is moderate at 65%, and has declined substantially from 83% during the global financial crisis. The country has investment grade sovereign credit ratings, with both S&P and Fitch rating its long-term senior unsecured foreign debt issues as AAA.

Inflation is low and stable—currently at 1.7%. The central bank’s policy rate of 0.0% and a 10-year government bond rate of 0.4% reflect the stability of the German economy and the European Central bank’s continuing stabilization measures.

Germany does have some challenges: the population is getting older; and its workforce will start to shrink in 2020. That should result in a 20% to 30% decline in the working-age population over the next 40 years (see box above).

That kind of decline will eventually place considerable strain on the availability of labour, plus wages and government income. A low unemployment rate of 3.7%—plus high job vacancy rates and shortages of skilled workers—are already putting upward pressure on wage growth. It is forecast to accelerate steadily and exceed 3.5% in 2019. The latest round of wage negotiations in the manufacturing, construction and public sectors suggest those areas, in particular, will see rapid acceleration starting this year.

Entrepreneurship is also on the decline with new business registrations down from 230,000 15 years ago to 170,000 last year. Cumbersome and multiple procedures to start a new business (second only to Japan among developed countries) are the major reason for the drop. That does not bode well for renewed growth of German’s small-business environment.

Exceptionally low interest rates in the Eurozone have also lowered the profitability of German banks and insurance companies. The troubles of Deutsche Bank­—designated a systemically important bank globally—have been well publicized and remain ongoing. But the bank’s profitability challenges have also contributed to its weak share price—still down 84% from 10 years ago.

Germany exchanged its currency, the Deutsche Mark, for the Euro in 1999. Many would argue that the Euro exchange rate is too weak and therefore Germany’s exports are priced too cheaply. This may well be true, but as long as Germany is lumped together with weaker EU economies such as Italy and Greece, this will remain the case.

Over the past year the iShares MSCI Germany ETF has gained 1.1%. That’s just short of the gain for the broad-based MSCI World Equity Index. Over the last 5 years, the ETF has risen 24.2%—again lagging the MSCI World Equity Index. It saw a gain of 56.7%. However, the very strong performance of the U.S. equity market drove much of the gains for the global index, while the strong U.S. dollar resulted in the underperformance of most of the other markets tracked by the index.

For investors who want exposure to Germany, the iShares MSCI Germany ETF is a sound choice.

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