ARC ENERGY TRUST $17.53 (Toronto symbol AET.UN; Units outstanding: 234 million; Market cap: $4.1 billion; SI Rating: Speculative) produces oil and gas in western Canada. ARC’s average daily production of 64,325 barrels of oil equivalent (this measurement includes natural gas) is weighted 50% to oil and 50% to natural gas.
ARC’s revenue fell 44.8% in the three months ended March 31, 2009, to $225.2 million from $407.9 million. Cash flow per unit fell 44.9%, to $0.54 from $0.98. Lower oil and natural-gas prices were the main reason for the declines.
The trust’s debt remains low, at 17% of its market cap. ARC has just lowered its monthly distribution by 16.7%, to $0.10 from $0.12. The units now yield 6.9%. ARC flowed only 70% of its cash flow through to its unitholders as distributions in the latest quarter. The units trade at 8.2 times ARC’s estimated 2009 cash flow of $2.15 per unit.
ARC Energy Trust is still a buy.
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