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Topic: How To Invest

Grain processor strives for breakthrough with stalled Australian deal

Grain processor strives for breakthrough with stalled Australian deal

ARCHER DANIELS MIDLAND CO. (New York symbol ADM; www.adm.com) processes corn, wheat, soybeans, canola, flax seed, peanuts, cocoa and other crops into a variety of food ingredients, such as flour, oils and sweeteners. It is also the largest maker of ethanol from corn in the U.S.

In its fiscal 2013 first quarter, which ended September 30, 2012, the company earned $182 million, or $0.28 a share. That’s down 60.4% from $460 million, or $0.68 a share, a year earlier. Lower profits from its ethanol business offset higher earnings from its oilseeds operations. Revenue fell 0.4%, to $21.8 billion from $21.9 billion.

The latest earnings included a $146-million writedown of its investment in a Mexican maker of corn flour and tortillas. Without this charge and other unusual items, the company would have earned $0.50 a share in the latest quarter, down 13.8% from $0.58 a year earlier.

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Stock investing: Deal for 100% of Australia’s GrainCorp stuck on disagreement over price

Archer Daniels recently paid $278 million to increase its interest in GrainCorp, a leading Australian grain-storage and shipping company, from 4.9% to 14.9%. It then paid $139 million for another 5% of GrainCorp, raising its stake to 19.9%.

Archer Daniels now wants to buy 100% of GrainCorp. This would cost Archer Daniels $2.9 billion. However, GrainCorp has rejected this offer as too low. GrainCorp’s shares are trading for slightly less than Archer Daniels’ offer, which indicates that investors do not expect a higher bid. Even so, it’s possible Archer Daniels could raise its offer. As well, its current 19.9% stake helps discourage rival bidders.

Rising prices for corn and other grains will increase Archer Daniels’ costs. That’s why the stock trades at just 12.0 times its projected 2013 earnings of $2.42 a share. Archer Daniels also has a long history of annual dividend increases. The current rate of $0.70 yields 2.4%.

In the most recent edition of Wall Street Stock Forecaster, we look at whether the benefits of the GrainCorp deal—chiefly diversification of its markets—would justify the price of a 100% takeover by Archer Daniels Midland. We also examine the company’s long-term prospects in light of world food demand. We conclude with our clear buy-hold-sell advice on the stock.

(Note: If you are a current subscriber to Wall Street Stock Forecaster, please click here to view Pat’s recommendation. Be sure to log in first.)

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