As the world’s largest fertilizer producer, Nutrien is well-positioned to benefit from the growing global demand for food and the need for increased agricultural productivity. Recent positive developments in the potash market, coupled with the firm’s ongoing efficiency improvements, should drive continued profitability in the coming years.
Furthermore, a strong retail presence and diverse product portfolio provide revenue stream stability. The company’s commitment to shareholder value is evident through its attractive dividend yield and share buyback program.
The stock trades at 14.0 times the company’s forward earnings forecast, a reasonable valuation when you consider improving market conditions and the company’s strong focus on operational efficiency.
NUTRIEN LTD. (Toronto symbol NTR) is the world’s largest producer of agricultural fertilizers, including potash, nitrogen and phosphate. It also sells seeds, fertilizers and agricultural products to farmers through some 2,000 stores spread across the Western Hemisphere and Australia.
The company took its current form on January 1, 2018, through the merger of fertilizer producer Agrium (old symbol AGU) and its rival Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (old symbol POT). At the time, Potash Corp. investors owned 52% of the new company, while Agrium shareholders held the remaining 48%.
Nutrien’s stock moved up recently after Belarusian potash supplier Belaruskali announced that it would cut its output by 1 million tonnes in the first half of 2025 due to maintenance at one of its mines.
The cut represents about 1.5% of the annual global potash production of about 72 million tonnes. The lower output also helped fuel a jump in potash prices since November 2024.
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Potash sales volumes in the three months ended December 31, 2024, fell 16.5% to 2.76 million tonnes from record volumes in the year-earlier quarter, while selling prices declined 17.4%. However, nitrogen sales volumes improved 6.6%, while prices rose 1.9%. As well, sales at its retail business, which sells fertilizer and seeds to farmers, declined 9.2%, partly due to wet weather in North America, which prompted farmers to delay fertilizer applications.
As a result of those factors, Nutrien’s revenue in the quarter fell 10.3%, to $5.08 billion from $5.66 billion a year earlier (all amounts except share price in U.S. dollars). That matched the consensus forecast.
The lower revenue also cut company earnings before unusual items by 18.5%, to $150 million from $184 million. Due to fewer shares outstanding, per-share earnings declined at a slower rate of 16.2%, to $0.31 from $0.37. That missed the consensus estimate of $0.36.
The company likely spent between $2.2 billion and $2.3 billion in 2024 on new projects and upgrades to its existing operations. Those outlays should decline to between $2.0 billion and $2.1 billion in 2025.
The company also continues to make progress with a plan to improve efficiency. It now expects annual savings will total $200 million U.S. by the end of 2025, which is one year ahead of its original target.
Nutrien continues to make progress with a plan to improve its efficiency. The company now expects annual savings will total $200 million by the end of 2025, which is one year ahead of its original target. As well, rising prices for corn, soybeans, wheat and other crops should spur demand for fertilizers and seeds.
Those factors should lift Nutrien’s earnings in 2025 by 5% to $3.65 U.S. a share. The stock trades at a reasonable 14.0 times that forecast.
What’s more, the company will raise your quarterly dividend by 0.9% with the April 2025 payment, to $0.545 a share from $0.54. The new annual rate of $2.18 yields a solid 4.2%. It also plans to buy back up to 5% of its outstanding shares over the next year.
Recommending Nutrien without reference to the potential impacts of the current tariff situation to the south seems more than a bit odd. Are your recommendations just sitting on the shelf and published randomly without taking into account current events??
Thanks for your comment. We continue to update our current advice on Nutrien for subscribers—including on tariffs—in our monthly Successful Investor newsletter and weekly Hotlines.
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Recommending Nutrien without reference to the potential impacts of the current tariff situation to the south seems more than a bit odd. Are your recommendations just sitting on the shelf and published randomly without taking into account current events??
Thanks for your comment. We continue to update our current advice on Nutrien for subscribers—including on tariffs—in our monthly Successful Investor newsletter and weekly Hotlines.