Subprime Strategy

Article Excerpt

As I said in our July 27 Hotline, the market downturn that got going that week could carry on till October and knock another 5% to as much as 15% off the market indexes. I still feel the damage will be greater in speculative areas, where some prices have risen out of proportion to value. Before the setback ends, however, some investors will dump perfectly good stocks out of overblown fears for their future. CANADIAN IMPERIAL BANK OF COMMERCE $87 (Toronto symbol CM; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Finance sector; Shares outstanding: 337.5 million; Market cap: $29.4 billion; SI Rating: Above average) provides an example. CIBC has some exposure to the U.S. subprime mortgage market, which is the source of today’s credit worries and market downturn. Growing uncertainty in the mortgage market will force CIBC to write down its U.S. investment portfolio by $190 million (after-tax) in its third fiscal quarter ended July 31, 2007. It earned $807 million or $2.27 a share in its second…