Understanding the Stock Market – The “January Effect”

Article Excerpt

Market weakness early in 2008 unsettled investors who are believers in the so-called ‘January barometer’ — the idea that January’s performance provides a clue to understanding the stock market for the rest of the year. However, this indicator is something of a self-fulfilling prediction, because it lumps January’s results in with results of the remaining 11 months. If the market goes up 5% in January, it has a big head start on a gain for the year. It could fall 4.5% in the remaining 11 months and still come up a gainer. That’s just one more illustration of why we never put much faith in any one indicator or set of statistics. Instead, we analyze a wide variety of data, and try to separate causes from mere coincidence. Declines early in January may reflect investor shock at trends in the U.S. presidential nominating process. Some lesser-known candidates are showing strength, while front runners are faltering. This could lead to a change in U.S. economic…