Keep invested despite high inflation and rates

Article Excerpt

Many investors and the media place great faith in what they regard as market indicators. We think now is a bad time for that. When you do it today, you can come up with lots of reasons for feeling negative about the market—high P/E ratios, rising inflation, the possibility for further Federal Reserve hikes in interest rates, along with other troubling reasons for investor unease. Meanwhile, while we’re optimistic about the long-term market outlook, it’s interesting to consider how stock markets have historically reacted to recessions brought on by very high interest rates. Recessions shrink corporate profits During economic recessions, corporate profits shrink, which in turn can lead to lower stock prices. Bear markets typically coincide with recessions—since the late 1960s, only one bear market has occurred without a recession (October 1987). Rising rates do not always cause a recession Central banks can raise interest rates for a variety of reasons but they mostly do it to dampen demand and reduce upward pressure on prices…