Strong U.S. economy boosts its banks

Article Excerpt

A strong U.S. economy and higher interest rates are normally good for the profitability of big banks. The recent sharp declines in U.S. long-term interest rates and the expectations for fewer, if any, rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve this year resulted in a sharp sell-off of U.S. banks. We think that these concerns may be overstated. The U.S. economy seems to be on solid ground, the net-interest margins of U.S. banks are stable or improving, their loan growth remains above inflation and their credit quality remains sound. That should result in profit growth above the market average for 2019. Finally, bank valuations are reasonable and compensate adequately for the risks, in our opinion. Improving margins The traditional business of commercial banks remains the lending of money. You can separate key factors driving the profitability of these operations into two categories: first, the size of the bank’s loan book; and second, the average interest rate charged on its loans. Together, these provide…