The aggressive investor – a stock market prediction

Article Excerpt

Today, many investors seem sure that the subprime situation and the problems associated with it will bring on a long-term market decline that could carry stock prices much lower. When a stock market prediction like this becomes widespread, the conclusion, the timing or both are often wrong. Think back to how many people agreed with former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan’s famous (or notorious) “irrational exuberance” speech in December 1996. Yet, nearly four years passed before the market hit its ultimate peak. Between the Greenspan speech and the 2000 market peak, we went through a market setback in response to an economic crisis that started in Thailand in 1997. At that time, investors talked about the so-called “Asian contagion,” and feared the crisis would spread to the west. Instead, we got over it, and many markets went on to new highs. We may be on a similar track right now. I still take a generally optimistic view of the market, but I could…