Topic: How To Invest

What is Pat’s commentary for the week of January 19, 2016

Article Excerpt

As I’ve often pointed out, the stock market tends to put on an above-average rise in U.S. Presidential Election years. This provides a statistical rationale for optimism in 2016, since the next election is this November. But it’s no guarantee that the market will rise, for a couple of reasons. First, several ominous factors are weighing on the market right now, in addition to the election. These include the outlook for interest rates; the trend in prices for oil and other commodities; the rise in terrorist activity; the Chinese economic slowdown; and the sharp rise in the U.S. dollar and corresponding drop in the Canadian dollar. An abrupt shift in any of these factors could have a big influence on the market for the remainder of the year and beyond. Second—more important—the election-year indicator works because U.S. politicians have a characteristic way of behaving during these years. President Obama is diverging from the traditional pattern that helped spur market gains in past election…