When making investment decisions in light of media reports of a development like the U.S. government shutdown and default threat, you need to consider the interests and viewpoint of the people involved—the journalists and the politicians. Journalists compete against each other to get high-profile assignments like this. After winning approval to cover a story, they have an incentive to dramatize it. They want their stories in the headlines. They want to attract a growing following of readers and viewers. They naturally carry their speculation to its logical conclusion. They want the public to imagine the worst possible outcome, rather than focus on the likeliest outcome, which is apt to be less interesting. The politicians involved have a more direct incentive to play up the drama. They rely on donations to finance their next election campaign. They want the media to talk about the importance of their struggles, and the dire outcomes that are likely if they fail. This is apt…