Reading the Yield Curve

Article Excerpt

In July, we warned that we were in a particularly dangerous time in the market — a time you might call the ‘hey, this-is-easy’ segment of the market cycle. At times like that, it may seem you (or your broker) can do no wrong. Market declines often follow such times, and that’s exactly what happened. The Toronto Exchange index hit an all-time peak in mid-July. By its mid-August low, it was around 15% lower. Since then, of course, stock prices have rebounded. The Toronto Exchange is only around 4% below its July peak. What happens next The market downturn and the accompanying media coverage of the subprime crisis and credit crunch seem to have sparked a 180-degree shift in investor sentiment since mid-July. The market was going up in the early summer, so investors assumed it would keep on going up. But interruptions like the one of the past few months are inevitable. When the market setback got underway, investors shifted their focus to rising…