Pat McKeough

A professional investment analyst for more than 30 years, Pat has developed a stock-selection technique that has proven reliable in both bull and bear markets. His proprietary ValuVesting System™ focuses on stocks that provide exceptional quality at relatively low prices. Many savvy investors and industry leaders consider it the most powerful stock-picking method ever created.

As early as 1980, Pat was recognized as #1 in the world of published investment advice by the Washington, DC–based Newsletter Publishers Association, and he was the first multi-year winner of The Globe and Mail’s stock picking contest.

Both CBS MarketWatch and The Hulbert Financial Digest recognized Pat as one of North America’s top stock analysts. The Wall Street Journal called him “one of only four investment newsletter advisors who have managed to serve their readers well over the long haul.”

A best-selling Canadian author, he wrote Riding the Bull, his 1993 book that predicted the stock-market boom of the last half of that decade. Through his many television appearances, he is well-known to investors for his insightful analysis and his candid, unpretentious style.

Bottom line: Pat’s conservative, reduced-risk strategy is a proven approach to safe investing.

Posts by the author
A conservative, step-by-step Canadian guide: account choice, W-8BEN, FX cost cuts, first trade, and DRIP, built for steady dividend income.
SNC-LAVALIN GROUP INC. $51 (www.snclavalin.com) designed and built Montreal’s Maison symphonique concert hall, which houses the Montreal Symphony Orchestra, in 2009. The company also operates the hall under a long-term deal with the Quebec government....
CGI GROUP INC. $38 (Toronto symbol GIB.A; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 311.7 million; Market cap: $11.8 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.1; No dividends paid; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk; www.cgi.com) is Canada’s largest provider of computer outsourcing services. CGI helps its clients automate routine functions, like accounting and buying supplies. That makes them more efficient and lets them focus on their main businesses.

Two-pronged strategy spurs results

CGI follows what it calls a “Build and Buy” strategy. The “Build” part refers to expanding relationships with existing clients and attracting new ones. The company’s long-term outsourcing contracts give it steady, predictable revenue streams. They also let CGI sell these clients other services.

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TECK RESOURCES LTD. $19 (Toronto symbol TCK.B; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 566.8 million; Market cap: $10.8 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.2; Dividend yield: 4.7%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.teck.com) has dropped 25% in the past three months, mainly due to the U.S. dollar’s recent rise and slowing economic growth in China and other parts of Asia. These factors have depressed the prices of metallurgical coal (which supplies 42% of Teck’s revenue) and copper (32%).

However, the company continues to benefit from rising zinc prices (26%). Thanks to better-than-expected production at its Red Dog mine in Alaska, Teck expects to produce 600,000 to 615,000 tonnes of zinc in 2014, up from its original forecast of 555,000 to 585,000. The company also plans to reopen its Pend Oreille zinc mine in Washington State by the end of 2014.

Meanwhile, Teck continues to aggressively cut its operating costs. It lowered its annual expenses by $360 million in 2013 and should achieve additional savings of $180 million a year by the end of 2014. The company has also reduced this year’s spending on new projects and upgrades by $150 million.

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EMERA INC. $36 (Toronto symbol EMA; Income Portfolio, Utilities sector; Shares outstanding: 142.6 million; Market cap: $5.1 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.8; Dividend yield: 4.3%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.emera.com) is Nova Scotia’s main power supplier. It also holds interests in electrical utilities in the U.S. and the Caribbean.

The company has raised its quarterly dividend by 6.9%, to $0.3875 a share from $0.3625. The new annual rate of $1.55 yields 4.3%.

In addition, Emera announced that it expects to increase its dividend by 6% annually for the next five years.

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SHAWCOR LTD. $54 (Toronto symbol SCL; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 64.5 million; Market cap: $3.5 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.8; Dividend yield: 1.1%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.shawcor.com) recently won contracts to coat underwater pipelines for the Shah Deniz project, which pumps natural gas under the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan. From there, other pipelines transport the gas to southern Europe.

The total value of these deals—$200 million U.S.—is equal to 12% of the company’s 2013 revenue of $1.8 billion (Canadian). ShawCor expects to complete these jobs from 2015 to 2018.

ShawCor is a buy.

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CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY LTD. $231(Toronto symbol CP; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 171.5 million; Market cap: $39.6 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 6.4; Dividend yield: 0.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.cpr.ca) prefers to use its excess cash to buy back shares instead of raising its dividend. That’s because many of its investors live in the U.S. and are subject to withholding taxes on dividends from Canadian firms.

The company could repurchase up to 5.3 million shares under its latest authorization. It has now reached this limit, so it has increased its target to 12.65 million shares, or 7% of the total outstanding. It expects to complete these purchases by March 16, 2015.

CP Rail is a buy.

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PENGROWTH ENERGY CORP. $5.02 (Toronto symbol PGF; Aggressive Growth and Income Portfolios, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 528.1 million; Market cap: $2.7 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.0; Dividend yield: 9.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.pengrowth.com) is shifting away from its traditional oil and natural gas operations and into projects with better long-term potential, such as its Lindbergh oil sands development in Alberta’s Cold Lake region.

Pengrowth is spending $630 million on Lindbergh’s first phase, which should start up in early 2015 and produce 12,500 barrels a day. That’s equal to 16.9% of Pengrowth’s second quarter output of 73,823 barrels a day (56% oil and natural gas liquids, 44% natural gas). Future phases will raise the project’s daily production to 50,000 barrels by 2020. Lindbergh’s reserves should last 25 years. The company’s cash flow per share will probably fall from $1.09 in 2013 to $1.01 in 2014. However, it should improve to $1.38 in 2015. The stock trades at a low 3.6 times that forecast.

Pengrowth’s improving cash flow should also let it keep paying monthly dividends of $0.04 a share, for an 9.6% annualized yield.

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TORSTAR CORP. $7.11 (Toronto symbol TS.B; Conservative Growth and Income Portfolios, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 80.1 million; Market cap: $569.5 million; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.5; Dividend yield: 7.4%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.torstar.com) publishes the Toronto Star, Canada’s largest daily newspaper by circulation. It also publishes three other daily papers and over 100 weeklies.

The slow economy continues to hurt advertising sales at Torstar’s newspapers. In the quarter ended June 30, 2014, the company’s revenue fell 7.4%, to $225.6 million from $243.6 million a year earlier.

Earnings jumped 44.2%, to $18.1 million, or $0.23 a share, from $12.6 million, or $0.16 a share. However, if you disregard restructuring costs and other unusual items, earnings per share fell 4.8%, to $0.20 from $0.21.

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METRO INC. $75 (Toronto symbol MRU; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 85.1 million; Market cap: $6.4 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.6; Dividend yield: 1.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.metro.ca) operates 600 grocery stores and 250 drugstores in Quebec and Ontario.

In its fiscal 2014 third quarter, which ended July 5, 2014, Metro earned $144.5 million, unchanged from a year earlier. The company spent $147.2 million on share buybacks in the latest quarter. Due to fewer shares outstanding, earnings per share gained 9.4%, to $1.63 from $1.49. Sales rose 1.4%, to $3.62 billion from $3.57 billion. Same-store sales gained 1.0%.

The company continues to benefit from the recent reorganization of its Ontario operations, including converting certain Metro outlets to the discount Food Basics banner.

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