Pat McKeough

A professional investment analyst for more than 30 years, Pat has developed a stock-selection technique that has proven reliable in both bull and bear markets. His proprietary ValuVesting System™ focuses on stocks that provide exceptional quality at relatively low prices. Many savvy investors and industry leaders consider it the most powerful stock-picking method ever created.

As early as 1980, Pat was recognized as #1 in the world of published investment advice by the Washington, DC–based Newsletter Publishers Association, and he was the first multi-year winner of The Globe and Mail’s stock picking contest.

Both CBS MarketWatch and The Hulbert Financial Digest recognized Pat as one of North America’s top stock analysts. The Wall Street Journal called him “one of only four investment newsletter advisors who have managed to serve their readers well over the long haul.”

A best-selling Canadian author, he wrote Riding the Bull, his 1993 book that predicted the stock-market boom of the last half of that decade. Through his many television appearances, he is well-known to investors for his insightful analysis and his candid, unpretentious style.

Bottom line: Pat’s conservative, reduced-risk strategy is a proven approach to safe investing.

Posts by the author
SAPUTO INC. $49 (Toronto symbol SAP; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 194.2 million; Market cap: $9.5 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.4; Dividend yield: 1.9%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.saputo.com) has spent $2.4 billion on acquisitions in the past five years, mainly dairy producers in the U.S. It now wants to buy Warrnambool Cheese and Butter Factory Company, one of Australia’s largest producers of milk, cheese, butter and other dairy products.

Buying Warrnambool would add around $480 million to Saputo’s annual revenue of $7.3 billion. It would also give the company access to the fast-growing Asia-Pacific region. However, this firm continues to attract rival takeover offers, which is why Saputo recently raised its offer by 16.0% to $523 million. To put this figure in context, Saputo earned $133.3 million, or $0.67 a share, in the three months ended September 30, 2013.

Warrnambool’s shares are trading for more than Saputo’s new offer. This shows that investors expect an even higher bid.
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TECK RESOURCES LTD. $27 (Toronto symbol TCK.B; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 576.3 million; Market cap: $15.6 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.6; Dividend yield: 3.3%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.teck.com) will contribute $2.9 billion to the Fort Hills oil sands project (see Suncor at left).

Teck mainly produces coal, copper and zinc, so Fort Hills will help diversify its operations. Its mining expertise will also help keep Fort Hills’ operating costs down.

The company will probably sell some of its less important assets to free up cash for Fort Hills. For example, it has reportedly agreed to sell its 3% stake in Australian iron ore mining company Fortescue Metals Group for about $479 million.
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CENOVUS ENERGY INC. $30 (Toronto symbol CVE; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 755.7 million; Market cap: $22.7 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.3; Dividend yield: 3.2%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.cenovus.com) gets 60% of its production from its three heavy oil projects in Alberta and one in Saskatchewan. Conventional oil and natural gas wells supply the remaining 40%. In all, Cenovus’s proved reserves should last at least 23 years.

U.S.-based ConocoPhillips (New York symbol COP) owns 50% of Cenovus’s main Foster Creek and Christina Lake oil sands projects in Alberta. These operations produce heavy bitumen, which Cenovus ships to its 50%-owned refineries in Illinois and Texas. Phillips 66 (New York symbol PSX) owns the other 50% of these refineries.

In the three months ended September 30, 2013, Cenovus produced 264,100 barrels of oil equivalent a day (67% oil and 33% gas), down 1.3% from 267,500 barrels a year earlier.
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IMPERIAL OIL LTD. $45 (Toronto symbol IMO; Conservative Growth Portfolio; Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 847.6 million; Market cap: $38.1 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.2; Dividend yield: 1.2%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.imperialoil.ca) produces oil and natural gas, mainly from its oil sands projects in Alberta. It also owns three refineries and operates 1,800 Esso gas stations.

Imperial began operating its new Kearl oil sands project in April 2013. It owns 71% of Kearl. ExxonMobil (New York symbol XOM) holds the other 29%. Exxon also owns 69.9% of Imperial.

In the three months ended September 30, 2013, Imperial produced an average of 288,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day (88% oil and 12% natural gas). That’s up 1.1% from 285,000 barrels a year earlier.
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SUNCOR ENERGY INC. $36 (Toronto symbol SU; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 1.5 billion; Market cap: $54.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.4; Dividend yield: 2.2%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www. suncor.com) gets 70% of its production from its Alberta oil sands projects. The rest comes from conventional oil and natural gas properties. Suncor also operates four refineries and 1,500 Petro- Canada gas stations.

The company recently sold most of its Western Canadian conventional natural gas properties for $1 billion.

The cash will help Suncor develop its Fort Hills oil sands project in Alberta. Suncor owns 40.8% of Fort Hills and will operate it. France’s Total S.A. owns 39.2%, and Teck (see box this page) holds the remaining 20.0%. Fort Hills’ reserves should last 50 years.
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ENCANA CORP. $18 (Toronto symbol ECA; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 740.1 million; Market cap: $13.3 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.2; Dividend yield: 1.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.encana.com) is cutting its reliance on natural gas, as rising shale gas production has cut prices from $11.50 U.S. per thousand cubic feet in 2008 to just $3.60 U.S. today.

Encana now plans to narrow its focus from around 30 properties to five: Montney (B.C.), Duvernay (Alberta), DJ Basin (Colorado), San Juan Basin (New Mexico) and Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (Louisiana).

These five fields also produce significant amounts of oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs), such as butane and propane, and should last decades. Encana expects oil and NGLs to supply 75% of its cash flow by 2017, up from about 35% today.
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RIOCAN REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST $25 (Toronto symbol REI.UN; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Units outstanding: 303.2 million; Market cap: $7.6 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 6.5; Dividend yield: 5.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.riocan.com) started up in 1993 and is now Canada’s largest REIT. It currently owns all or part of 295 retail properties, including 15 under development. These holdings account for 85% of its rental revenue. The remaining 15% comes from 51 malls in the U.S.

RioCan continues to expand beyond suburban big-box-style shopping centres. Mostly through joint ventures with other property developers, it has added mixed-use retail, office and residential buildings, mainly in densely populated urban areas.

RioCan’s revenue declined 0.8%, from $764 million in 2008 to $758 million in 2009. Some of the trust’s tenants went bankrupt during the recession, but it mostly offset that by adding new properties. RioCan’s revenue recovered to $882 million in 2010 and rose to $1.1 billion in 2012, as it took advantage of lower property values and interest rates to expand its portfolio.
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PENGROWTH ENERGY $6.57 (Toronto symbol PGF; Shares outstanding: 517.7 million; Market cap: $3.4 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Average; Dividend yield: 7.3%; www.pengrowth.com) has gained over 31% since early July 2013. That’s mainly because the company has successfully completed its plan to sell some of its less important oil and gas properties in Western Canada.

The cash from these sales will help Pengrowth speed up the development of its Lindbergh oil sands project in Alberta. As well, the company’s monthly dividend of $0.04 a share still seems safe and has a 7.3% annualized yield.

Pengrowth is a buy.
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ISHARES CDN REIT SECTOR INDEX FUND $15.46 (Toronto symbol XRE; buy or sell through brokers; ca.ishares.com) holds the 15 Canadian real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index. The weight of each REIT is limited to 25% of the ETF’s value.

iShares CDN REIT’s expenses are 0.60% of its assets. The fund yields 5.0%.

The ETF’s largest holding is RioCan REIT at 19.5%, followed by H&R REIT (14.9%), Dundee REIT (8.0%), Canadian REIT (7.4%), Calloway REIT (6.7%), Allied Prop. REIT (5.9%), Boardwalk REIT (5.8%), Canadian Apt, REIT (5.7%), Cominar REIT (5.6%), Artis REIT (4.7%), Chartwell REIT (4.6%), Granite REIT (4.4%), Dundee Intl. REIT (2.3%), Northern Property REIT (2.3%) and Crombie REIT (1.8%).
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