cp rail

GENNUM CORP., $13.48, Toronto symbol GND, jumped 119.2% this week after it accepted a $13.55-a-share takeover offer from U.S.-based Semtech Corp. (Nasdaq symbol SMTC). Gennum designs electronic equipment and computer chips that let television broadcasters store, edit and transfer video signals without losing picture quality. It also designs chips that make computer networks faster. The company’s shares are now trading just below Semtech’s offer. This indicates that investors do not expect a higher price. Regulators and Gennum shareholders must still approve the deal, but it should close in April 2012....

CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY LTD. $69 (Toronto symbol CP; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 169.7 million; Market cap: $11.7 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.3; Dividend yield: 1.7%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.cpr.ca) transports freight between Montreal and Vancouver, and connects with hubs in the U.S. Midwest and Northeast. It gets 25% of its revenue from the U.S.

CP’s revenue rose 16.7%, from $4.6 billion in 2006 to $5.3 billion in 2008, as rising Asian trade pushed up freight volumes. CP’s $1.5-billion purchase of Dakota, Minnesota & Eastern Railroad (DM&E) October 2008 brought in more revenue. DM&E operates a 4,000-kilometre rail network in eight midwestern states.

The recession cut CP’s revenue by 17.7% in 2009 to $4.4 billion. However, revenue rose 13.2%, to $5.0 billion, in 2010. Even with its weather-related problems in the first half of 2011, revenue for the full year probably rose to $5.2 billion.

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CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY LTD., $70.77, Toronto symbol CP, is our “Stock of the Year” for 2012. Next week, Stock Pickers Digest, our newsletter for aggressive investors, will reveal its #1 pick for 2012. We’ve had great success with CP since we recommended it in the first issue of The Successful Investor in January 1995. In October 2001 the old CP broke up into five separate companies: CP Rail, CP Ships, Fording Coal, Pan Canadian and Fairmont Hotels. In 2002, PanCanadian merged with Alberta Energy to form EnCana, which broke up into Encana and Cenovus in December 2009. All of these mergers and breakups unlocked significant shareholder value. Railways are highly cyclical. Unpredictable factors, such as weather, also add risk: in 2011, avalanches in B.C. and spring floods in the Prairies delayed CP’s trains and hurt its earnings....

We’ve chosen Canadian Pacific Railway as our “Stock of the Year” for 2012. Railways are highly cyclical. CP’s stock got as low as $30 in mid-2004, then shot up to briefly peak at $90 in mid-2007. It then fell to a low of $33 by March 2009, as the recession cut deeply into freight volumes. The stock more than doubled to $68 by February 2011 as the economy recovered. However, avalanches in B.C. and spring floods in the Prairies hurt CP’s volumes and earnings in 2011. The stock fell as low as $46 in September. It then began to rise in October, as the economic outlook and the stock market both improved. The company now has a new plan for dealing with bad weather and raising its efficiency. The recent involvement of a prominent American hedge fund may speed up CP’s earnings growth, and spur further gains in its stock price....

In next week’s Successful Investor Hotline, we’ll reveal our #1 stock pick for 2012. Don’t miss this unique opportunity to profit. CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY LTD., $69.08, Toronto symbol CP, rose 4% this week on media reports that Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. is pressuring the company to replace its current chief executive officer with Hunter Harrison, the retired CEO of rival Canadian National Railway Co. (Toronto symbol CNR). Pershing Square is an activist investment firm that is now CP’s largest shareholder. CP’s shares have gained 8.3% since October 28, 2011 when Pershing Square said that it had bought 12.2% of the company on. Pershing Square now owns 14.2% of CP....

RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD., $17.08, Toronto symbol RIM, fell 9% on Friday after it said it would write down its inventory of unsold BlackBerry PlayBook tablet computers. RIM recently cut the price of the PlayBook by 60% to spur sales. The writedown will cut RIM’s after-tax earnings in its 2012 third quarter, which ended November 26, 2011, by $360 million (all amounts except share price in U.S. dollars). RIM earned $329 million, or $0.63 a share, in the second quarter of fiscal 2012. The company shipped 14.1 million BlackBerry smartphones in the third quarter, which was in line with its forecast of 13.5 to 14.5 million. It also shipped 150,000 PlayBooks....

Activist investment firm Pershing Square Capital Management is now the largest single investor in CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY $61.46 (Toronto symbol CP; Shares outstanding: 170.5 million; Market cap: $10.5 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Average; Dividend yield: 2.0%; www.cpr.ca), with a 12.2% stake. Pershing has a long history of making undervalued companies more profitable. It often does this by encouraging management to sell real estate or underperforming divisions. For example, in 2006 Pershing helped pressure Wendy’s International Inc. to sell shares in its Tim Hortons coffee-and-donut chain and use the proceeds to buy back stock. CP aims to become more efficient by investing in better trains and other equipment. Pershing’s involvement is an added plus....

TRANSCANADA CORP., $42.37, Toronto symbol TRP, is still waiting for final approval to proceed with its proposed Keystone XL oil pipeline. Keystone XL includes the third and fourth phases of a four-phase, $13-billion U.S. project; phases one and two are already pumping crude oil from the Alberta oil sands to refineries in the U.S. Midwest. Keystone XL will cost $7 billion U.S., and will pump oil from Alberta through Oklahoma to the U.S. Gulf Coast. So far, TransCanada has spent $1.9 billion U.S. on Keystone XL. The U.S government should make a final decision by the end of 2011. If the pipeline is approved, TransCanada expects to complete it in the second half of 2013....

IBM $183.92 (New York symbol IBM; Shares outstanding: 1.2 billion; Market cap: $220.7 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; Dividend yield: 1.6%) earned $3.28 a share in the three months ended September 30, 2011. That’s up 15.1% from $2.85 a share a year earlier. Revenue rose 7.8%, to $26.2 billion from $24.3 billion. The company continues to see strong growth in fast-growing markets, like Brazil, Russia, India and China. Revenue from these markets, including those four countries, rose 19% in the latest quarter and provided 23% of overall revenue. As well, IBM will benefit as the uncertain economy prompts more businesses to automate their operations instead of hiring workers....

CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY CO., $63.80, Toronto symbol CP, reported higher revenue in its latest quarter. However, earnings fell short of the consensus estimate. In the three months ended September 30, 2011, CP’s revenue rose 4.3%, to $1.34 billion from $1.29 billion. That’s mainly because the company raised its shipping rates and fuel surcharges. In addition, CP shipped more coal and potash during the quarter; that offset lower volumes of manufactured goods and grain. Even with the higher revenue, earnings fell 5.3%, to $186.8 million, or $1.10 a share. That missed the consensus estimate of $1.11 a share. However, costs related to the early repayment of long-term notes cut earnings by $0.04 a share in the latest quarter. A year earlier, the company earned $197.3 million, or $1.17 a share....