oil and gas

CARFINCO FINANCIAL GROUP INC., $10.53, symbol CFN on Toronto, rebounded closer to its takeover price of $11.25 a share this week, after falling as low as $8.30 last week. In November 2014, Carfinco’s shareholders voted to accept a friendly $11.25-a-share takeover bid from Spain’s Banco Santander SA (ADR symbol SAN on New York). Carfinco is confident the deal will go through, and this week the last two conditions were met: Spanish regulators granted their approval and Carfinco entered into an agreement to sell Persian Acceptance Corp., its U.S. subsidiary....

The near-term direction of oil and gas prices remains uncertain, so we think the best way to cut risk is to look for companies with rising production that are trading at reasonable multiples to cash flow. Here are two with sound long-term prospects. DEVON ENERGY CORP. $61.60 (New York symbol DVN; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (405-235- 3611; www.dvn.com; Shares outstanding: 409.1 million; Market cap: $24.4 billion; Dividend yield: 1.6%) is one of the largest U.S.-based oil and natural gas explorers and producers. Its production mix is 46% gas and 54% oil. The company narrowed its focus with its July 2014 sale of some of its properties to Linn Energy for $2.3 billion. The deal included Devon’s holdings in the Rockies, the onshore Gulf Coast and the Mid- Continent region (which includes Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas)....

STANTEC INC. $30.05 (Toronto symbol STN; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (780-917-7288; www.stantec.com; Shares outstanding: 93.8 million; Market cap: $2.8 billion; Dividend yield: 1.2%) (all figures adjusted for a 2-for-1 share split in November 2014) sells a range of consulting, project-delivery, design and technology services. The company’s clients operate in a variety of industries, including oil and gas, transportation and construction. In the quarter ended September 30, 2014, Stantec’s revenue rose 12.2%, to $544.2 million from $484.8 million a year earlier. Earnings gained 5.7%, to $48.6 million, or $1.04 a share, from $46.0 million, or $0.99. Stantec continues to grow by acquisition. It has now completed its purchase of Montreal-based Dessau, a distressed firm that’s one of a number of companies caught up in a Quebec government inquiry into corruption in the construction industry. Under the deal, Stantec won’t be responsible for any of the millions of dollars in fines or penalties Dessau may have to pay....

PEYTO EXPLORATION & DEVELOPMENT CORP. $30.32 (Toronto symbol PEY; Shares outstanding: 153.7 million; Market cap: $4.8 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk; Dividend yield: 4.4%; www.peyto.com) produces and explores for oil and natural gas in Alberta. Its average daily production of 77,592 barrels of oil equivalent is 90% gas and 10% oil.

In the quarter ended September 30, 2014, Peyto’s cash flow rose 62.7%, to $1.09 a share from $0.67 a year ago. That’s because it raised its production by 37.7% and realized higher oil and gas prices.

The company is forecast to generate cash flow of $4.80 a share in 2015. That estimate will fall if oil prices stay low for some time, but Peyto’s high weighting in gas will largely offset lower oil prices. Peyto trades at 6.3 times the current forecast, which is reasonable in light of its strong growth prospects.

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ISHARES CHINA LARGE-CAP ETF $42.10 (New York symbol FXI; buy or sell through brokers) is an exchange traded fund that aims to track the FTSE China 50 Index, which is made up of the 50 largest, most liquid Chinese stocks. All of the companies in the index trade on the Hong Kong exchange. Some also trade as American depositary receipts (ADRs) on New York.

The fund’s top holdings are Tencent Holdings, 8.4%; China Construction Bank, 7.9%; China Mobile, 7.7%; Industrial & Commercial Bank, 7.2%; Bank of China, 6.1%; China Life, 4.8%; Ping An Insurance, 4.5%; PetroChina, 4.1%; CNOOC Ltd., 3.9%; China Petroleum and Chemical, 3.7%; Agricultural Bank of China, 2.5%; and China Pacific Insurance, 2.5%.

The fund’s holdings give it the following industry breakdown: Financials, 50.3%; Oil and Gas, 13.8%; Telecommunications, 11.1%; Technology, 9.9%; Consumer Goods, 6.3%; Industrials, 4.2%; and Basic Materials, 2.4%. Its expense ratio is 0.74%.

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SUNCOR ENERGY INC. $35 (Toronto symbol SU; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 1.5 billion; Market cap: $52.5 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.2; Dividend yield: 3.2%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www. suncor.com) gets 40% of its revenue and 65% of its earnings by producing oil and natural gas, mainly at its large Alberta oil sands projects. The remaining 60% of revenue and 35% of earnings come from its four oil refineries and 1,500 Petro-Canada gas stations.

Big merger boosted results

Suncor merged with rival Petro-Canada in 2009, increasing its revenue by 52.2%, from $25.5 billion in 2009 to $38.8 billion in 2011. Lower oil prices cut the company’s revenue to $38.5 billion in 2012. In 2013, Suncor sold most of its Western Canadian natural gas operations for $1 billion. However, higher oil prices offset the lower production, and its revenue rose to $40.3 billion.

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SHAWCOR LTD. $38 (Toronto symbol SCL; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 64.5 million; Market cap: $2.5 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.4; Dividend yield: 1.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.shawcor.com) makes sealants and coatings that keep oil and gas pipelines from rusting. It also manufactures industrial products, such as electrical wire and protective sheaths.

Low oil prices are prompting oil and gas producers to delay new drilling projects in the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, ShawCor will write down the value of its pipe-coating facility in Texas. Meanwhile, the devaluation of Venezuela’s currency has prompted the company to write down its 50% joint venture in that country.

These charges will cut ShawCor’s earnings by $80 million in the fourth quarter of 2014. To put that in context, it earned $115.5 million, or $1.90 a share, in the first nine months of the year.

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CAE INC., $14.64, Toronto symbol CAE, is our Stock of the Year for 2015. The stock has gained 3.8% since we made CAE our Stock of the Year for 2014. We feel it’s just getting started and has many years of growth ahead. That’s because the company is in a strong position to profit from several trends that are just beginning to take shape. For one, airlines will have to hire more pilots in the next few years as existing ones retire. As well, global air travel volumes should rise 5% annually for the next 20 years. Both of these developments should boost demand for new pilots and increase enrolment at CAE’s flight schools....

SHAWCOR LTD. $38 (Toronto symbol SCL; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 64.5 million; Market cap: $2.5 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.4; Dividend yield: 1.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.shawcor.com) makes sealants and coatings that keep oil and gas pipelines from rusting. It also manufactures industrial products, such as electrical wire and protective sheaths. Low oil prices are prompting oil and gas producers to delay new drilling projects in the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, ShawCor will write down the value of its pipe-coating facility in Texas. Meanwhile, the devaluation of Venezuela’s currency has prompted the company to write down its 50% joint venture in that country. These charges will cut ShawCor’s earnings by $80 million in the fourth quarter of 2014. To put that in context, it earned $115.5 million, or $1.90 a share, in the first nine months of the year....

SUNCOR ENERGY INC. $35 (Toronto symbol SU; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 1.5 billion; Market cap: $52.5 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.2; Dividend yield: 3.2%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www. suncor.com) gets 40% of its revenue and 65% of its earnings by producing oil and natural gas, mainly at its large Alberta oil sands projects. The remaining 60% of revenue and 35% of earnings come from its four oil refineries and 1,500 Petro-Canada gas stations. Big merger boosted results Suncor merged with rival Petro-Canada in 2009, increasing its revenue by 52.2%, from $25.5 billion in 2009 to $38.8 billion in 2011. Lower oil prices cut the company’s revenue to $38.5 billion in 2012. In 2013, Suncor sold most of its Western Canadian natural gas operations for $1 billion. However, higher oil prices offset the lower production, and its revenue rose to $40.3 billion....