oil prices

Fairborne Energy, $4.17, symbol FEL on Toronto (Shares outstanding: 102.5 million; Market cap: $427.3 million), explores for, develops and produces oil and gas in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The company’s production is 73% natural gas and 27% oil. In the first quarter of 2010, Fairborne’s cash flow was $0.42 a share. That’s up 5% from $0.40 a share a year earlier. Higher oil prices were the main reason for the increase. Fairborne’s production averaged 13,886 barrels per day equivalent in the latest quarter (this measure includes natural gas). However, production rose sharply at the end of March. The company is now producing between 15,500 and 16,000 barrels per day equivalent....

CGI GROUP INC., $15.04, Toronto symbol GIB.A, is Canada’s largest provider of computer-outsourcing services. These services help its customers automate certain routine functions, such as accounting and buying supplies. That lets CGI’s clients focus on their main businesses, and improve their efficiency. The company continues to renew existing contracts and win new ones. CGI added $1.1 billion of new orders in its second quarter, which ended March 31, 2010. Its backlog is now $11.4 billion, or 3.1 times its annual revenue. Even with the jump in new orders, CGI’s revenue fell 4.0% in the latest quarter, to $910.4 million from $948.3 million a year earlier. CGI gets roughly 40% of its revenue from outside of Canada, mainly the U.S., so the higher Canadian dollar hurt its revenue. Without the negative impact of exchange rates, revenue would have risen 3.5%....

Canadian Oil Sands Trust, $31.24, symbol COS.UN on Toronto (Units outstanding: 484.0 million: Market cap: $15.1 billion), has a 36.74% interest in Syncrude Canada Ltd. Canadian Oil Sands’ share of Syncrude’s current oil production is about 103,100 barrels per day. Syncrude is the largest producing oil-sands project in the world, and Canadian Oil Sands Trust is Syncrude’s biggest stakeholder. Other partners in the Syncrude Canada venture include Imperial Oil (25%); Suncor Energy (12%); ConocoPhillips (9.03%); Nexen Oil Sands Partnership (7.23%); Mocal Energy (5%); and Murphy Oil (5%). ConocoPhillips recently agreed to sell its 9.03% stake in Syncrude to China’s Sinopec for $4.65 billion U.S. Based on that price, Canadian Oil Sands’ 36.74% interest in Syncrude is potentially worth $18.9 billion U.S. That’s 28.6% more than the trust’s current market cap. The sale should close in the third quarter of 2010....

Oil prices fell from their July 2008 peak of $148 U.S. a barrel to just under $40 U.S. in February 2009. Prices have roughly doubled since then, and oil now trades at about $84 U.S. a barrel. We think oil prices could rise even further if the global economy continues to rebound, as we expect. Even so, we continue to advise against overindulging in oil stocks. That’s because the Resource sector (including oil) is highly volatile, and no one can accurately predict future oil prices. However, you can profit nicely over long periods by investing a reasonable portion of your portfolio in well-established or well-managed Canadian oil stocks, especially those with high-quality reserves and rising production. These companies are well-positioned to profit during periods of high oil prices, and are able to at least partly offset price declines by producing more oil....

BIRCHCLIFF ENERGY $9.00 (Toronto symbol BIR; SI Rating: Speculative) (403-261-6401; www.birchcliffenergy.com; Units outstanding: 124.1 million; Market cap: $1.1 billion: No dividends paid) trades at a high multiple to cash flow because investors expect its production to rise as much as 40% over the next year or so. That would substantially boost cash flow. Birchcliff develops, produces and explores for oil and natural gas in Alberta’s Peace River Arch area. In the three months ended December 31, 2009, the company’s cash flow per share was $0.17. That’s down 22.7% from $0.22 a year earlier. That’s because lower gas prices offset higher oil prices in the quarter. Lower gas prices also prompted the company to cut back on drilling. That lowered production by 8.8%, to 10,515 barrels per day from 11,524 barrels....

CANADIAN UTILITIES LTD. (Toronto symbols CU (class A non-voting) $47 and CU.X (class B voting) $47; Income Portfolio, Utilities sector; Shares outstanding: 125.9 million; Market cap: $5.9 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.2; Dividend yield: 3.2%; SI Rating: Above Average) distributes electricity and natural gas in Alberta. It also operates 19 power plants: 15 in Canada, two in the U.K., and two in Australia, As well, Canadian Utilities sells engineering services to other utilities. ATCO Ltd. owns 52.3% of the company. Canadian Utilities’ 2009 revenue fell 7.0%, to $2.6 billion from $2.8 billion in 2008, partly due to lower electricity prices in Alberta. But thanks to improving efficiency and regulatory relief, its earnings rose 5.9%, to $3.40 a share (or a total of $427.6 million) from $3.21 a share (or $403.2 million). The company aims to fuel long-term growth with new projects. For example, it will soon begin work on a $1.65-billion power transmission line between Edmonton and Calgary....

Utility stocks have more appeal than they used to, mainly because low interest rates have made bonds less appealing. (See later in this issue for our full analysis of why utilities are a better choice than bonds for your portfolio.) We see all five of these electrical-power utilities as buys. That’s because they offer an attractive mix of safety, income and growth. As well, they have maintained or raised their dividends, despite the recession and stock-market downturn. CANADIAN UTILITIES LTD. (Toronto symbols CU (class A non-voting) $47 and CU.X (class B voting) $47; Income Portfolio, Utilities sector; Shares outstanding: 125.9 million; Market cap: $5.9 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.2; Dividend yield: 3.2%; SI Rating: Above Average) distributes electricity and natural gas in Alberta. It also operates 19 power plants: 15 in Canada, two in the U.K., and two in Australia, As well, Canadian Utilities sells engineering services to other utilities. ATCO Ltd. (see right) owns 52.3% of the company....

EMERA INC., $24.56, Toronto symbol EMA, owns Nova Scotia Power Inc., which is Nova Scotia’s main electrical-power supplier. Nova Scotia Power supplies 94% of Emera’s revenue. The remaining 6% comes from investments in power companies in the U.S. and the Caribbean. This week, Nova Scotia Power and U.S.-based NewPage Corp. agreed to build a new biomass power plant at NewPage’s Port Hawkesbury paper mill in northern Nova Scotia. Biomass power plants generate electricity by burning plant materials and wood waste. This new facility should start operating by the end of 2012. It will then supply 3% of Nova Scotia’s power needs. Under the deal, Nova Scotia Power will invest $200 million in the new plant, including $80 million to buy an existing wood-burning generator. Most of the remaining $120 million will go toward building a second generator. NewPage will build and operate the biomass plant. It will also supply the fuel....

Members of our Inner Circle service often ask for investing advice on stocks they are thinking of buying that we don’t cover in our newsletters. A large number of these stocks fall into a grey area. Sometimes our investing advice is that they are “okay to hold,” but we wouldn’t advise buying them. When Inner Circle members ask about one of these companies, that’s what our investing advice would be: it’s “okay to hold.” However, when Inner Circle members ask about companies we think they should sell (or avoid if they don’t already own them), we say so. Here are three recent examples of our Inner Circle investing advice: Day4 Energy (symbol DFE on Toronto) designs and makes solar panels using its patented electrode technology and silicon cells....

CENOVUS ENERGY $26.16 (Toronto symbol CVE; Shares outstanding: 751.3 million; Market cap: $19.7 billion; SI Rating: Extra Risk; Dividend yield: 3.1%) holds the more aggressive assets from the EnCana split on December 1, 2009. Cenovus’ oil-sands projects, oil refineries and conventional natural gas remain profitable. But extracting oil from oil sands is a hugely capital-intensive enterprise. Oil sands projects can become unprofitable if oil prices fall. Cenovus earned $1.3 billion, or $1.74 a share, in 2009 (all amounts except share price in U.S. dollars). That’s down 19.5% from $1.6 billion, or $2.17 a share, in 2008. These figures exclude unusual items. Cash flow per share fell 20.0%, to $3.29 from $4.11....