stock prices

The U.S. dollar hit a low below $0.95 Cdn. in October 2011, and has since risen above $1.16 Cdn., a gain of 22.1%. In the same period, the U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index has gained 88.1%, even after allowing for the setback of the past couple of weeks. Together these two factors mean that if you followed our advice and put around a quarter of your portfolio in high-quality U.S. stocks, you probably have substantial capital gains. If so, you may feel tempted to sell some of your U.S. stocks—“harvest” some of your capital gains, as brokers sometimes say. It’s generally a bad idea to sell high-quality stocks simply because their stock prices have gone up. When you do that, you risk selling your best selections when they are just starting to rise. But it’s a particularly bad idea to sell U.S. stocks right now....

ROYAL BANK OF CANADA $79 (Toronto symbol RY; Conservative Growth and Income Portfolios, Finance sector; Shares outstanding: 1.4 billion; Market cap: $110.6 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 3.8; Dividend yield: 3.8%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.rbc.com) earned $2.3 billion in its fiscal 2014 fourth quarter, which ended October 31, 2014. That’s up 11.0% from $2.1 billion a year earlier. Per-share earnings rose 12.9%, to $1.57 from $1.39, on fewer shares outstanding. Revenue improved 5.8%, to $8.4 billion from $7.9 billion. Earnings at Royal’s Canadian and U.S. retail banking division (which supplied 52% of the total) rose 7.6% on strong loan growth and higher fee-based income. The securities trading division (18% of total earnings) saw its profits fall 14.3% on lower trading volumes, and costs to comply with new U.S. securities regulations. The bank’s wealth management division (13%) reported 41.1% higher earnings, mainly because rising stock prices increased the value of its assets under administration. Insurance earnings (12%) jumped 139.3%, mainly because a charge related to new Canadian tax laws depressed the year-earlier earnings. Without this charge, this business’s earnings rose 14% on fewer claims. The investor and treasury services business’s earnings (5%) gained 24.2%, thanks to higher deposit volumes and better efficiency....

Every Wednesday, we publish our “Investor Toolkit” series on TSI Network. Whether you’re a beginning or experienced investor, these weekly updates are designed to give you specific investment tips and stock market advice. Each Investor Toolkit update gives you a fundamental piece of investment advice, and shows you how you can put it into practice right away.

Today’s tip: “Bottom-up investors have the great advantage of basing their decisions on what they know about stocks, rather than trying to guess how stocks might be affected by a random series of events.”

In the early chapters of any good book on fundamental stock market advice, you will come across the two basic ways to make investment decisions: bottom-up and top-down....

The ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF, $38.79, symbol SDOG on New York (Units outstanding: 24.3 million; Market cap: $942.6 million; www.alpssectordividenddogs.com), is an ETF that applies the “Dogs of the Dow” theory on a sector-by-sector basis using the stocks in the S&P 500. The fund’s MER is 0.40%. The Dogs of the Dow approach involves buying the lowest-priced, highest-yielding stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. At the end of each year, you pick the 10 stocks from the 30-stock Dow with the highest dividend yields. You then invest an equal dollar amount in each, hold them for one year and repeat these steps annually. The ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF picks five stocks from each of the 10 sectors as defined by the S&P 500 index—consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, financials, health care, industrials, information technology, materials, telecommunication services and utilities. The ETF picks the stocks with the highest dividend yields. Each holding is then equally weighted so that every company has a similar influence on the ETF’s total return. The end result is a portfolio of 50 large cap stocks....

When I sat down to write about the 2014 U.S. mid-term Congressional Election results, I was struck by how little things had changed since the 2010 mid-term. Here’s what I wrote four years ago for our Inner Circle Q&A about the 2010 U.S. mid-term: “November 9, 2010 Dear Inner Circle member,...

Every Wednesday, we publish our “Investor Toolkit” series on TSI Network. Whether you’re a beginning or experienced investor, these weekly updates are designed to give you specific investment advice. Each Investor Toolkit update gives you a fundamental piece of stock market advice, and shows you how you can put it into practice right away. Today’s tip: “The value and quality of the stocks you consider are far more important than what the share price happens to be doing at any given moment.”...

Here’s the text of the quarterly letter I recently sent to our Portfolio Management clients:

“One of the most dependable rules of North American investing, and one I’ve often written about, is the “four-year rule”. It says that U.S. Presidents tend to get a lot friendlier toward business and investors in the second half of each four-year U.S. Presidential term. Stocks usually (but not always) rise in response.

The switch to investor-friendliness often occurs within a few weeks of the mid-term Congressional election. The next one of these takes place on Tuesday, November 4 this year. That’s when the current president will generally start to focus on the next Presidential election, which comes two years later.

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Every Wednesday, we publish our “Investor Toolkit” series on TSI Network. Whether you’re a beginning or experienced investor, these weekly updates are designed to give you specific investment advice. Each Investor Toolkit update gives you a fundamental piece of investment advice, and shows you how you can put it into practice right away. Today’s tip: “The best way to stay ahead of the market—and all the people who manage to underperform it—is to avoid going in and out trying to buy low and sell high.”...

The practice of market timing consists of coming up with and acting on a series of guesses (or estimates, or assessments of the probabilities) to use in your buying and selling decisions, with the aim of buying near a low and selling near a high. Most market timing systems attempt to interpret and detect buy and sell signals in trading patterns and history. Some of the decisions you make with the help of market timing will bring you profits, and others will cost you money. Many investors start out with an exaggerated idea of the value and importance of market timing. Most eventually become disillusioned with it, after they figure out that it’s costing them money. Market timing can pay off sporadically, of course. Although the results are largely random, successes and failures are apt to run in spurts. The worst thing that can happen to you near the start of an investing career is that you make a series of successful timing decisions. This may lead you to believe that you have a natural talent for market timing, or that you’ve stumbled on a timing process that’s a guaranteed money-maker. Either of these conclusions can spur you to back your future timing decisions with growing amounts of money....

BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA $72.16 (Toronto symbol BNS; Shares outstanding: 1.2 billion; Market cap: $88.0 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; Div. yield: 3.7%, www.scotiabank.com) is the third-largest of Canada’s five big banks, with $791.5 billion of assets.

In the three months ended July 31, 2014, the bank earned $1.85 a share, up 36.0% from $1.36 a year earlier. The latest quarter included a one-time gain of $0.45 a share from the sale of most of the bank’s stake in mutual fund company CI Financial for $2.3 billion. Without one-time items, earnings per share rose 8.5%, to $1.40 from $1.29.

Higher loan demand and deposits pushed up the Canadian banking division’s earnings by 2.7%. That includes ING Direct, which Bank of Nova Scotia bought for $3.1 billion in late 2012.

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