Pat McKeough

A professional investment analyst for more than 30 years, Pat has developed a stock-selection technique that has proven reliable in both bull and bear markets. His proprietary ValuVesting System™ focuses on stocks that provide exceptional quality at relatively low prices. Many savvy investors and industry leaders consider it the most powerful stock-picking method ever created.

As early as 1980, Pat was recognized as #1 in the world of published investment advice by the Washington, DC–based Newsletter Publishers Association, and he was the first multi-year winner of The Globe and Mail’s stock picking contest.

Both CBS MarketWatch and The Hulbert Financial Digest recognized Pat as one of North America’s top stock analysts. The Wall Street Journal called him “one of only four investment newsletter advisors who have managed to serve their readers well over the long haul.”

A best-selling Canadian author, he wrote Riding the Bull, his 1993 book that predicted the stock-market boom of the last half of that decade. Through his many television appearances, he is well-known to investors for his insightful analysis and his candid, unpretentious style.

Bottom line: Pat’s conservative, reduced-risk strategy is a proven approach to safe investing.

Posts by the author
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC. $59 (Nasdaq symbol TXN; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 1.0 billion; Market cap: $59.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 4.6; Dividend yield: 2.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.ti.comtarget=”_blank”) earned $798 million in the three months ended September 30, 2015, down 3.4% from $826 million a year earlier. The company spent $790 million on share buybacks during the quarter. As a result, earnings per share were unchanged at $0.76.

Revenue declined 2.1%, to $3.4 billion from $3.5 billion. Sales of analog chips (64% of the total) rose 1.5%. (Analog chips convert inputs like touch and sound into electronic signals computers can understand.) Revenue from embedded processor chips (21%), which perform mathematical calculations, gained 2.0%. But revenue from other chips and calculators (15%) declined by 18.6%.

However, free cash flow (cash flow less capital expenditures) rose 4.2% in the past 12 months, to $3.6 billion. That gives the company plenty of flexibility to keep buying back shares and raising its dividend.

...
FEDEX CORP. $155 (New York symbol FDX; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 282.4 million; Market cap: $43.8 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.9; Dividend yield: 0.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.fedex.com) has received approval from European regulators for its deal to buy Netherlands-based courier TNT Express NV. FedEx expects to complete the purchase by October 31, 2015.

The company will pay $4.8 billion. It held cash of $3.5 billion as of August 31, 2015, so it will borrow the funds it needs. Its long-term debt of $7.2 billion is a low 16% of its market cap, so it has lots of room to borrow more, especially at today’s low interest rates.

FedEx is a buy.

...
C.R. BARD INC. $184 (New York symbol BCR; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 73.9 million; Market cap: $13.6 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 4.0; Dividend yield: 0.5%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.crbard.com) earned $174.7 million in the three months ended September 30, 2015, up 4.7% from $166.9 million a year earlier. Earnings per share rose 6.0%, to $2.28 from $2.15, on fewer shares outstanding.

Sales gained 4.3%, to $865.7 million from $830.0 million. Without the high U.S. dollar’s negative impact, sales rose 8%.

The company is also buying the 50% of Medicon, a joint venture that distributes Bard’s medical devices in Japan. The company will pay $93 million for this stake. Owning all of Medicon will add $40 million to its annual sales.

...
NORDSTROM INC. $65 (New York symbol JWN; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 188.2 million; Market cap: $12.2 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.9; Dividend yield: 2.3%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.nordstrom.com) owns and operates 304 stores in the U.S. and Canada that mainly sell upscale clothing and footwear.

The company recently sold its credit card loans to Toronto-Dominion Bank (Toronto symbol TD) for $2.2 billion. It used the cash to cut $325 million from its $2.8-billion debt and pay a special dividend of $4.85 a share, worth a total of $900 million.

Nordstrom will use the remaining funds to buy back $1 billion worth of its stock by March 1, 2017. That’s in addition to the $591 million remaining on its existing repurchase authorization, which expires on March 1, 2016.

...
FAIR ISAAC CORP. $93 (New York symbol FICO; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 31.1 million; Market cap: $2.9 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 3.3; Dividend yield: 0.1%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.fico.com) makes FICO Scores, a computer program that helps businesses make better decisions about customer creditworthiness. FICO Scores dominates this niche market. Fair Isaac also sells software that helps credit card issuers control fraud and analyze cardholders’ spending patterns.

The company spends 12% of its revenue on research, which helps it stay ahead of the competition.

It’s now working to incorporate new data into its software. Right now, for example, FICO Scores doesn’t distinguish between people who carry balances on their credit cards (higher credit risk) and those who’ve never had a credit card but pay their utility and other bills off every month (lower risk). In addition, Fair Isaac plans to add data people publicly share on social media like Facebook. Both moves should make FICO Scores more accurate.

...
SYMANTEC CORP. $21 (Nasdaq symbol SYMC; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 679.2 million; Market cap: $14.3 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.2; Dividend yield: 2.9%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.symantec.com) sells computer-security technology, including antivirus and email-filtering software, to businesses and consumers.

In 2014, the company said it would split into two publicly traded firms. One would keep the Symantec name and focus on antivirus and security software and services. The other, called Veritas Technologies, makes products for data backup and recovery.

However, the company has now decided to sell Veritas to a group of private investors for $8.0 billion. It expects to close the deal on January 1, 2016.

...
ALCOA INC. $8.99 (New York symbol AA; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 1.3 billion; Market cap: $11.7 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.5; Dividend yield: 1.3%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.alcoa.com) plans to split itself into two separate firms.

One will focus on Alcoa’s upstream operations, which include mining bauxite ore and refining it into bulk aluminum products. This business will be the world’s fourth-largest aluminum producer, with $13.2 billion of annual revenue and $2.8 billion of gross earnings.

The other company will focus on engineered aluminum products, such as components for cars and jet engines. This firm has $14.5 billion of annual revenue and $2.2 billion of gross earnings.

...
STANLEY BLACK & DECKER INC. $107 (New York symbol SWK; Conservative Growth and Income Portfolios, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 153.2 million; Market cap: $16.4 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.4; Dividend yield: 2.1%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.stanleyblackanddecker.com) earned $234.1 million in the three months ended October 3, 2015, down 5.0% from $246.4 million a year earlier. The company spent $192.1 million on share buybacks in the quarter, so per-share earnings gained 1.3%, to $1.55 from $1.53.

Sales fell 1.7%, to $2.8 billion from $2.9 billion. Stanley gets about half of its sales from outside the U.S., so if you exclude the negative impact of currency rates, sales rose 6%. Stronger demand for its hand tools offset lower sales of its building-security products and tools for industrial users.

The company continues to benefit from a recent restructuring, while lower prices for steel and other raw materials are expanding its profit margins. As a result, Stanley now expects to earn $5.80 to $5.95 a share for all of 2015, up from its earlier forecast of $5.70 to $5.90. The stock trades at an attractive 18.2 times the midpoint of the new range.

...
Trading ETFs can work just as well in facilitating dumb moves as it does with smart moves