Pat McKeough

A professional investment analyst for more than 30 years, Pat has developed a stock-selection technique that has proven reliable in both bull and bear markets. His proprietary ValuVesting System™ focuses on stocks that provide exceptional quality at relatively low prices. Many savvy investors and industry leaders consider it the most powerful stock-picking method ever created.

As early as 1980, Pat was recognized as #1 in the world of published investment advice by the Washington, DC–based Newsletter Publishers Association, and he was the first multi-year winner of The Globe and Mail’s stock picking contest.

Both CBS MarketWatch and The Hulbert Financial Digest recognized Pat as one of North America’s top stock analysts. The Wall Street Journal called him “one of only four investment newsletter advisors who have managed to serve their readers well over the long haul.”

A best-selling Canadian author, he wrote Riding the Bull, his 1993 book that predicted the stock-market boom of the last half of that decade. Through his many television appearances, he is well-known to investors for his insightful analysis and his candid, unpretentious style.

Bottom line: Pat’s conservative, reduced-risk strategy is a proven approach to safe investing.

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CANADIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY CO. $73 (www.cn.ca) faces several challenges, including falling crude-by-rail volumes and higher safety-related costs. However, CN continues to improve its efficiency with new locomotives and tracks....
LOBLAW COMPANIES LTD. $64 (Toronto symbol L; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 412.6 million; Market cap: $26.4 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.6; Dividend yield: 1.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.loblaw.ca) is Canada’s largest food retailer, with 1,140 stores. Its banners include Loblaws, Provigo, Fortinos, Real Canadian Superstore and No Frills. George Weston Ltd. (Toronto symbol WN) owns 46% of Loblaw.

In March 2014, the company acquired the 1,250-store Shoppers Drug Mart chain for $12.3 billion in cash and shares. Thanks largely to this purchase, Loblaw’s sales jumped 38.2%, from $30.8 billion in 2010 to $42.6 billion in 2014.

Merger savings help pay down debt

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BOMBARDIER INC. (Toronto symbols BBD.A $2.55 and BBD.B $2.53; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 1.7 billion; Market cap: $4.4 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.3; Dividend suspended in February 2015; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk; www.bombardier.com) plans to sell shares in its transportation division to the public. This business makes passenger railcars and accounts for 45% of Bombardier’s total revenue.

The company expects to complete the sale in the fourth quarter of 2015. The new shares will mainly trade on Germany’s stock exchange because that’s where this business is based. Bombardier will retain a majority stake in this new company.

Bombardier also recently suspended its dividend and sold new shares to shore up its balance sheet. The cash should help the company finish developing its new CSeries jet. Bombardier has firm orders for 243 CSeries planes. If buyers exercise their options and other agreements, that figure would rise to 603 aircraft with a total value of about $39 billion U.S.

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METRO INC. $34 (Toronto symbol MRU; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 246.9 million; Market cap: $8.4 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.7; Dividend yield: 1.4%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.metro.ca) plans to spend $300 million to build new supermarkets and upgrade existing stores in its 2015 fiscal year, which ends September 30, 2015. That’s up 47.8% from $203 million in fiscal 2014.

These investments should help Metro reach its long-term goal of increasing its annual sales by 2% to 4% and earnings per share by 8% to 10%.

Metro is a buy.

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CENOVUS ENERGY INC. $21 (Toronto symbol CVE; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 828.4 million; Market cap: $17.4 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.9; Dividend yield: 5.0%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.cenovus.com) has temporarily shut down its Foster Creek oil sands project in northern Alberta, as forest fires in the area are hindering traffic on the main access road to the site.

Cenovus own 50% of Foster Creek, while U.S.-based ConocoPhillips (New York symbol COP) owns the other 50%. In the first quarter of 2015, Cenovus’s share of this project’s output was 68,000 barrels a day, or 31% of its total daily oil production of 218,000 barrels.

The fires have also forced other oil projects in Alberta to close. In all, these operations account for 9% of the province’s total production. However, the shutdowns have increased the spot price of Western Canadian crude, which should help Cenovus offset the lost revenue.

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CAE INC. $15 (Toronto symbol CAE; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 267.2 million; Market cap: $4.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.8; Dividend yield: 1.9%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.cae.com) has won a new contract to train pilots for the U.S. Army and Air Force. As a result, the company will build a new training facility at Dothan Regional Airport in Alabama.

This eight-year deal is worth $200 million U.S. To put that in context, CAE’s revenue was $2.2 billion (Canadian) in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2015. Military clients supply about 40% of the company’s revenue, which cuts its reliance on selling flight simulators to cyclical commercial airlines.

CAE is our #1 buy for 2015.

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IGM FINANCIAL INC. $42 (Toronto symbol IGM; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Finance sector; Shares outstanding: 248.5 million; Market cap: $10.4 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 3.5; Dividend yield: 5.4%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.igmfinancial.com) is Canada’s largest independent mutual fund company, with $148.5 billion of assets under management. Power Financial owns 59.1% of IGM.

In the first quarter of 2015, IGM’s earnings rose 3.0%, to $200.3 million from $194.4 million a year earlier. Per-share earnings gained 3.9%, to $0.80 from $0.77, on fewer shares outstanding. Revenue increased 6.4%, to $760.9 million from $714.8 million. Sales of mutual funds (net of redemptions) fell 12.0%, but rising stock markets pushed up assets under management by 8.1%.

The Canadian Medical Association recently dropped Mackenzie and other firms as sub-advisors on some of the bond funds it sells to its members. That will cut IGM’s assets under management by $10 billion. However, based on the fees it earns from this client, the impact on its earnings is small. The stock trades at just 12.5 times the $3.36 a share that IGM will likely earn in 2015. The $2.25 dividend yields 5.4%.

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GREAT-WEST LIFECO INC. $37 (Toronto symbol GWO; Conservative Growth and Income Portfolios, Finance sector; Shares outstanding: 997.5 million; Market cap: $36.9 billion; Priceto- sales ratio: 0.9; Dividend Yield: 3.5%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.greatwestlifeco.com) is one of Canada’s largest insurance companies, with $1.2 trillion of assets under administration. It also offers mutual funds, retirement planning and wealth management. Power Financial (Toronto symbol PWF) owns 67.1% of Great-West.

The company continues to expand in Ireland. In 2013, it paid $1.75 billion for Irish Life Group, a major pension manager and life insurance provider. It will also soon complete its purchase of the Irish operations of Legal & General Group for an undisclosed sum. This business provides investment and tax-planning services to wealthy individuals.

Meanwhile, in the three months ended March 31, 2015, Great-West’s earnings rose 19.3%, to $700 million from $587 million a year earlier. Irish Life contributed $80 million, up from $52 million. Due to more shares outstanding, earnings per share rose 18.6%, to $0.70 from $0.59. Revenue rose 27.6%, to $12.7 billion from $9.9 billion.

The company will probably earn $2.82 a share in 2015, and the stock trades at a low 13.1 times that estimate. The $1.30 dividend yields 3.5%.

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