Pat McKeough

A professional investment analyst for more than 30 years, Pat has developed a stock-selection technique that has proven reliable in both bull and bear markets. His proprietary ValuVesting System™ focuses on stocks that provide exceptional quality at relatively low prices. Many savvy investors and industry leaders consider it the most powerful stock-picking method ever created.

As early as 1980, Pat was recognized as #1 in the world of published investment advice by the Washington, DC–based Newsletter Publishers Association, and he was the first multi-year winner of The Globe and Mail’s stock picking contest.

Both CBS MarketWatch and The Hulbert Financial Digest recognized Pat as one of North America’s top stock analysts. The Wall Street Journal called him “one of only four investment newsletter advisors who have managed to serve their readers well over the long haul.”

A best-selling Canadian author, he wrote Riding the Bull, his 1993 book that predicted the stock-market boom of the last half of that decade. Through his many television appearances, he is well-known to investors for his insightful analysis and his candid, unpretentious style.

Bottom line: Pat’s conservative, reduced-risk strategy is a proven approach to safe investing.

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Learn which Canadian sectors have historically delivered more dependable dividends—and why. This safety-first guide explains the cash-flow mechanics, key risks (rates, regulation, credit cycles), and how to build a balanced income mix without chasing yield.
Investment Advice
Pat McKeough responds to many requests from members of his Inner Circle for specific investment advice, as well as questions on investment strategy and the economy. Every week, his comments and recommendations on the most intriguing questions of the past week go out to all Inner Circle members. And each week we offer you a report on one of the stocks profiled in these Q&A sessions. We give you Pat’s buy-hold-sell recommendation as well as his analysis of the stock. This is part of the specific buy, hold and sell advice we offer you in our daily posts. Every week you get “A Stock to Sell” on Monday, “Best Canadian Stocks” on Tuesday, and “Our Top U.S. Stocks” on Thursday. Recently an Inner Circle member asked us about a leading Canadian specialty food maker. Premium Brands draws two-thirds of its revenue from retail and the rest from food services. The company continues to expand aggressively and Pat assesses the flurry of acquisitions it has made in recent years. He considers the high debt Premium has assumed to make its acquisitions and whether it can continue to maintain its high dividend. Q: Pat: Can you please give me your opinion of Premium Brands for income and gains in the specialty food sector? Thanks....
CALIAN TECHNOLOGIES $18.40 (Toronto symbol CTY; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (613- 599-8600; www.calian.com; Shares outstanding: 7.3 million; Market cap: $138.7 million; Dividend yield: 6.1%) operates in two areas: the business and technology services division (which supplies 70% of the company’s revenue) provides engineers, health care workers and other skilled professionals on a contract basis. The systems engineering division (30% of revenue) sells hardware and software for testing, operating and managing satellite and other communication systems.

In the three months ended June 30, 2014, the company earned $2.9 million, or $0.39 a share. That’s down 12.5% from $3.3 million, or $0.43 a share, a year earlier. Revenue declined 7.4%, to $53.8 million from $58.1 million.

Government clients add stability


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STANTEC INC. $67.93 (Toronto symbol STN; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (780-917-7288; www.stantec.com; Shares outstanding: 46.8 million; Market cap: $3.1 billion; Dividend yield: 1.1%) sells a range of consulting, project-delivery, design and technology services. Its clients operate in a variety of industries, including oil and gas, transportation and construction.

In the quarter ended June 30, 2014, Stantec’s revenue rose 13.0%, to $530.3 million from $469.4 million a year earlier. Earnings gained 22.6%, to $44.3 million, or $0.95 a share, from $36.1 million, or $0.78.

Timely move into Quebec

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ZARGON OIL & GAS $6.03 (Toronto symbol ZAR; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (403- 264-9992; www.zargon.ca; Shares outstanding: 30.2 million; Market cap: $183.5 million; Dividend yield: 11.9%) produces natural gas and oil in Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and North Dakota. Its output is 62% oil and 38% gas.

Zargon continues to sell properties to fund high development spending at its alkaline surfactant polymer (ASP) enhanced oil recovery project at Little Bow, Alberta. ASP is a new process that floods oil wells with a chemical mixture when water is no longer effective. The alkali in the mixture penetrates the rock and frees trapped oil.

This project is costly, and it’s diverting funds from Zargon’s conventional oil drilling. That’s lowering the company’s cash flow— per-share cash flow fell 26.4% in the latest quarter, to $0.39 from $0.53 a year ago.

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BELLATRIX EXPLORATION $5.24 (Toronto symbol BXE; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (403- 266-8670; www.bellatrixexploration.com; Shares outstanding: 191.1 million; Market cap: $1.1 billion; No dividends paid) is now trading on the New York Stock Exchange, also under the BXE symbol.

Bellatrix originally listed its common shares on the NYSE MKT (formerly the American Stock Exchange) on September 20, 2012. Switching to the main New York exchange should raise its profile and increase its liquidity.

The company has also formed a new joint venture with Grafton Asset Management. Under the deal, Grafton will contribute $250 million toward the development of some of Bellatrix’s extensive landholdings in Alberta. Bellatrix will also commit $250 million. To put that in context, Bellatrix’s cash flow was $148.7 million, or $0.84 a share, in the first half of 2014.

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ATLANTIC TELE-NETWORK $58.52 (Nasdaq symbol ATNI; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (340- 777-8000; www.atni.com; Shares outstanding: 15.9 million; Market cap: $914.6 million; Yield: 2.0%) raised its quarterly dividend by 7.4%, to $0.29 a share from $0.27, with the October 2014 payment. It now yields 2.0%.

Atlantic closed the sale of its Alltel wireless business to AT&T (symbol T on New York) late last year. It now holds cash of $407.6 million, or $24.64 a share, and has paid off its $271.1 million of debt.

The company could use its high cash balance to make acquisitions or expand its remaining operations. It could also make further dividend increases or pay special dividends.

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TRILOGY ENERGY CORP. $20.22 (Toronto symbol TET; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (403-290-2900; www.trilogyenergy.com; Shares outstanding: 105.1 million; Market cap: $2.8 billion; Dividend yield: 2.1%) reported production of 36,187 barrels of oil equivalent a day (including gas) in the quarter ended June 30, 2014. That’s down 2.7% from 37,209 barrels a year earlier. Cash flow per share rose 9.6%, to $0.80 from $0.73, as higher oil and gas prices offset the production drop.

The company plans to spend $375 million on exploration this year, down 5.5% from the $397 million it spent in 2013. As well, it’s now focusing on its shale oil prospects at Kaybob, Alberta and spending less on its more mature oil pools in the same area.

That shift could push Trilogy’s average daily output to over 42,000 barrels late next year, but it will continue to weigh on the company’s production growth in the meantime.

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CIMAREX ENERGY $106.95 (New York symbol XEC; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (303-295-3995; www.cimarex.com; Shares outstanding: 87.0 million; Market cap: $9.0 billion; Dividend yield: 0.6%) produces and explores for natural gas and oil. Gas makes up 48% of the company’s output.

Cimarex’s properties are mostly in the Wolfcamp shale area of the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, and the Cana-Woodford shale area in western Oklahoma.

In the three months ended June 30, 2014, the company’s production averaged 838.7 million cubic feet of natural gas equivalent per day (including oil). That’s up 22.1% from 686.8 million cubic feet a year earlier.

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DEVON ENERGY CORP. $55.14 (New York symbol DVN; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (405-235- 3611; www.dvn.com; Shares outstanding: 409.1 million; Market cap: $22.6 billion; Dividend yield: 1.7%) is one of the largest U.S.-based oil and natural gas explorers and producers. Its production mix is 48% gas and 52% oil.

In 2011, Devon sold all of its international and Gulf of Mexico properties, which it saw as risky and expensive to develop.

The company narrowed its focus even further with the July 2014 sale of some of its properties to Linn Energy for $2.3 billion. The sale included Devon’s holdings in the Rockies, the onshore Gulf Coast and the Mid-Continent region (which includes Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas).

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