Pat McKeough

A professional investment analyst for more than 30 years, Pat has developed a stock-selection technique that has proven reliable in both bull and bear markets. His proprietary ValuVesting System™ focuses on stocks that provide exceptional quality at relatively low prices. Many savvy investors and industry leaders consider it the most powerful stock-picking method ever created.

As early as 1980, Pat was recognized as #1 in the world of published investment advice by the Washington, DC–based Newsletter Publishers Association, and he was the first multi-year winner of The Globe and Mail’s stock picking contest.

Both CBS MarketWatch and The Hulbert Financial Digest recognized Pat as one of North America’s top stock analysts. The Wall Street Journal called him “one of only four investment newsletter advisors who have managed to serve their readers well over the long haul.”

A best-selling Canadian author, he wrote Riding the Bull, his 1993 book that predicted the stock-market boom of the last half of that decade. Through his many television appearances, he is well-known to investors for his insightful analysis and his candid, unpretentious style.

Bottom line: Pat’s conservative, reduced-risk strategy is a proven approach to safe investing.

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When we get questions about investing in stocks through split-share, our advice is, avoid the risk and invest in good stocks individually
ALIMENTATION COUCHETARD $29.50 (Toronto symbol ATD.B: TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (1-800-361-2612; www.couchetard.com; Shares outstanding: 565.8 million; Market cap: $16.6 billion; Dividend yield: 0.5%) plans to keep looking for big acquisitions like its $2.7-billion purchase of Norway’s Statoil Fuel & Retail gas station chain in June 2012.

However, the company has a long history of not overpaying for acquisitions; in 2010, it dropped its $2-billion U.S. hostile takeover offer for Casey’s General Stores after competitor 7-Eleven outbid it. And earlier this year, it stayed out of the running to buy oil and gas giant Hess Corp.’s 1,354 U.S. gas stations and convenience stores. Marathon Petroleum eventually paid $2.9 billion.

Meanwhile, Couche-Tard’s sales rose 2.0% in the quarter ended April 27, 2014, to $9.0 billion from $8.8 billion a year ago. Earnings per share rose 10.0%, to $0.22 from $0.20. (All figures except share price and market cap in U.S. dollars. Per-share amounts adjusted for a 3-for-1 stock split on April 14, 2014).

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TIM HORTONS $60.17 (Toronto symbol THI; TSINetwork Rating: Average) (905-845-6511; www.timhortons.com; Shares outstanding: 134.3 million; Market cap: $8.1 billion; Dividend yield: 2.1%) operates 3,610 coffee-anddonut shops in Canada, 870 in the U.S. and 44 in the Persian Gulf.

In the quarter ended March 30, 2014, sales rose 4.8%, to $766.4 million from $731.5 million a year ago. The gain was mainly because the company opened 23 outlets in Canada and 11 in the U.S. Samestore sales rose 1.6% at its Canadian locations and 1.9% in the U.S.

Earnings rose 5.5%, to $90.9 million from $86.2 million. In the past nine months, the company has repurchased $1 billion worth of shares. As a result, its earnings per share jumped 17.9%, to $0.66 from $0.56.

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Stock Broker
Every industry and group has its own special jargon. This specialized language always has the same purpose. It simplifies communications within the industry, and helps make insiders feel they are part of a tightly knit community. It also helps the group pursue its goals. It shapes concepts that will establish lines of thought and discussions that match the industry’s view of the world. But it can be confusing for those who are not insiders in the group. This natural human tendency has probably been going on ever since language began. Many will recall George Orwell’s classic novel written at the dawn of the Cold War, 1984. In the book, the totalitarian government that rules the English-speaking world has decided to replace English with an invented language called Newspeak. This new language uses lots of English words, but it defines concepts in such a way that forbidden ideas are difficult, if not impossible, to express....
Stock market trading
Every Wednesday, we publish our “Investor Toolkit” series on TSI Network. Whether you’re a beginning or experienced investor, these weekly updates are designed to give you advice on stock market trading and other investment topics. Each Investor Toolkit update gives you a fundamental piece of investing strategy, and shows you how you can put it into practice right away. Today’s tip: “Worrying about things like the direction of the economy—rather than about the long-term strengths and weaknesses of the stocks you own—can lead investors into disastrous buy-sell decisions.” Many investors spend a lot of time worrying about the wrong things, while paying little attention to anything that has a direct impact on the value of their investments. For instance, at times they may mull over every tidbit of economic information that comes out, and how it differs from its predecessor of a week or a month earlier. They hope to detect a pattern—a sign that the economy is mending and headed for a return to steady growth, or deteriorating and doomed to plunge into a renewed recession....
PENGROWTH ENERGY $7.12 (Toronto symbol PGF; Shares outstanding: 526.2 million; Market cap: $3.7 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Average; Dividend yield: 6.7%; www.pengrowth.com) produced 75,102 barrels a day (55% oil and natural gas liquids, 45% natural gas) in the first quarter of 2014, down 16.3% from 89,702 a year earlier.

The drop was mainly because Pengrowth sold several less important oil and gas properties in Western Canada. It’s investing the proceeds in more promising projects, including its Lindbergh oil sands development in Alberta’s Cold Lake region.

Pengrowth’s cash flow, which excludes these losses, fell 6.9%, to $0.27 a share from $0.29. However, that beat the consensus estimate of $0.25.

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BONAVISTA ENERGY $16.63 (Toronto symbol BNP; Shares outstanding: 189.3 million; Market cap: $3.3 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk; Dividend yield: 5.1%; www.bonavistaenergy.com) explores for oil and natural gas in Alberta, Saskatchewan and British Columbia. Its production is 65% gas and 35% oil.

In the three months ended March 31, 2014, Bonavista’s cash flow per share gained 40.4%, to $0.80 from $0.57 a year earlier. Production rose just 2.2%, to 73,936 barrels of oil equivalent a day from 72,333. But its realized gas price jumped 55.5%, to an average of $5.07 per thousand cubic feet from $3.26, while oil prices rose 6.2%, to $79.68 a barrel from $75.05.

Bonavista plans to spend $580 million to $600 million on exploration and development in 2014. Its plans include drilling 130 to 135 wells, which will let it raise its average 2014 production as high as 77,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day. For all of 2013, Bonavista spent $460 million to drill 126 wells.

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PEYTO EXPLORATION & DEVELOPMENT CORP. $39.25 (Toronto symbol PEY; Shares outstanding: 153.7 million; Market cap: $6.1 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk; Dividend yield: 3.1%; www.peyto.com) produces and explores for oil and natural gas in Alberta. Its average daily production of 72,209 barrels of oil equivalent is 90% gas and 10% oil.

In the quarter ended March 31, 2014, Peyto’s cash flow rose 53.6%, to $1.06 a share from $0.69 a year earlier. That’s because the company raised its production by 30.4%. Gas prices also gained 27.5%, to an average of $4.45 per thousand cubic feet from $3.49, while oil prices rose 6.1%, to $80.49 a barrel from $75.88.

Peyto plans to spend $625 million on exploration and development in 2014, which will let it drill 110 to 125 wells. To put that in context, the company spent $578 million to drill 99 wells in 2013.

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BELL ALIANT INC. $28.91 (Toronto symbol BA; Shares outstanding: 227.8 million; Market cap: $6.5 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Average; Dividend yield: 6.6%; www.aliant.ca) continues to invest heavily in fibre optic networks. It now has 963,048 high-speed Internet users (up 3.9% from a year earlier) and 189,781 digital TV customers (up 38.3%).

However, lower demand for regular phone services cut Bell Aliant’s revenue by 1.2%, to $675.7 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2014, from $683.6 million a year earlier. Before one-time items, earnings declined 9.1%, to $0.40 a share from $0.44.

Due to the cost of Bell Aliant’s network upgrades, its annual dividend of $1.90 a share (6.6% yield) accounts for over 100% of its cash flow, after capital expenditures. However, that payout ratio should drop to 75% to 85% after it finishes these projects by 2016. The stock trades at a high, but still reasonable, 18.1 times its forecast 2014 earnings of $1.60 a share.

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VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS ETF $42.42 (New York symbol VWO; buy or sell through brokers) aims to track the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) Transitions Index, which is made up of common stocks of companies in developing countries. The fund has an MER of just 0.15%.

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF’s top holdings include Taiwan Semiconductor (Taiwan: computer chips), China Mobile (China: wireless), Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Brazil: oil and gas), Vale SA (Brazil: mining), Gazprom (Russia: gas utility), China Construction Bank, Tencent Holdings (China: Internet), Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, Naspers Ltd. (South Africa: media) and MTN Group (South Africa: wireless).

The $59.3-billion fund’s breakdown by country is as follows: China (20.6%), Taiwan (13.7%), Brazil (13.7%), India (9.9%), South Africa (9.7%), Mexico (5.7%), Russia (5.4%), Malaysia (5.2%), Indonesia (2.9%), Thailand (2.8%), Turkey (1.9%), Chile (1.7%), Poland (1.7%) and others (5.1%).

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