Pat McKeough

A professional investment analyst for more than 30 years, Pat has developed a stock-selection technique that has proven reliable in both bull and bear markets. His proprietary ValuVesting System™ focuses on stocks that provide exceptional quality at relatively low prices. Many savvy investors and industry leaders consider it the most powerful stock-picking method ever created.

As early as 1980, Pat was recognized as #1 in the world of published investment advice by the Washington, DC–based Newsletter Publishers Association, and he was the first multi-year winner of The Globe and Mail’s stock picking contest.

Both CBS MarketWatch and The Hulbert Financial Digest recognized Pat as one of North America’s top stock analysts. The Wall Street Journal called him “one of only four investment newsletter advisors who have managed to serve their readers well over the long haul.”

A best-selling Canadian author, he wrote Riding the Bull, his 1993 book that predicted the stock-market boom of the last half of that decade. Through his many television appearances, he is well-known to investors for his insightful analysis and his candid, unpretentious style.

Bottom line: Pat’s conservative, reduced-risk strategy is a proven approach to safe investing.

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When we get questions about investing in stocks through split-share, our advice is, avoid the risk and invest in good stocks individually
Stock Market Picks
Kemie Guaida
Every Wednesday, we publish our “Investor Toolkit” series on TSI Network. Whether you’re a beginning or experienced investor, these weekly updates are designed to give you advice on specific investment topics. Each Investor Toolkit update gives you a fundamental piece of investing strategy, and shows you how you can put it into practice right away. Today’s tip: “Wise investors always value dividends, but many investors don’t realize that share buybacks can be just as valuable as dividends, and in some cases, more so.” Dividends are in fashion with investors, and that’s a good thing. Creative accounting can produce false impressions of prosperity and hide embarrassing financial problems. But accounting can’t create cash for this year’s dividend, let alone conjure up a history of past dividends. If you restrict your stock market picks to dividend payers, you’ll avoid most of the market’s greatest disasters....
Stock Investing
TRANSCANADA CORP. (Toronto symbol TRP; www.transcanada.com) operates a 68,500-kilometre pipeline network that pumps natural gas from Alberta to Eastern Canada and the U.S. The company’s pipelines supply 20% of North America’s natural gas. In 2013, they provided 51% of TransCanada’s revenue and 53% of its earnings. The company also owns or invests in power plants in Alberta, Ontario, Quebec and the northeastern U.S. In all, these facilities have over 11,800 megawatts of generating capacity. TransCanada’s electricity operations now supply 36% of its revenue and 30% of its earnings. In 2011, the company started up its oil pipeline division. This business mainly consists of the Keystone pipeline, which pumps oil from Alberta to refineries in Illinois, and a distribution hub in Cushing, Oklahoma. Oil pipelines supply the remaining 13% of TransCanada’s revenue and 7% of its earnings....
YUM! BRANDS INC. $82 (New York symbol YUM; Aggressive Growth Portfolio; Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 411.4 million; Market cap: $33.7 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.8; Dividend yield: 1.8%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.yum.com) has 40,324 fast-food restaurants in over 110 countries. Its main banners include KFC (fried chicken), Pizza Hut and Taco Bell (Mexican food). Franchisees operate 80% of these outlets.

The company was the first fast-food chain to enter China, in 1987, and is now a leader in that country. Its 6,332 Chinese outlets now supply 53% of its sales and 35% of its earnings. Other markets include the U.S. (23% of sales, 31% of earnings), and other countries (24%, 34%).

Food safety fears hurt results

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UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP. $116 (New York symbol UTX; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 916.7 million; Market cap: $106.3 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.7; Dividend yield: 2.0%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.utc.com) has amended its deal to build 28 Sikorsky Cyclone helicopters for the Canadian government. The company had planned to deliver these helicopters in 2012, but disputes over prices and support prompted it to suspend the program. It now plans to begin deliveries in 2015.

The original contract was worth $4.6 billion. But due to the delays in starting up production, United Technologies will record a one-time charge of $440 million in the second quarter of 2014. However, it feels other unusual gains will offset this charge.

As a result, the company still expects to earn $6.65 to $6.85 a share for all of 2014. The stock trades at 17.2 times the midpoint of that range. That’s a reasonable p/e ratio in light of its leading market share in its various niche industries (jet engines, elevators and heating and air conditioning equipment) and wide global reach (overseas markets account for 60% of its revenue).

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GENUINE PARTS CO. $87 (New York symbol GPC; Conservative Growth and Income Portfolios, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 153.6 million; Marketcap: $13.4 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.9; Dividend yield: 2.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.genpt.com) has agreed to pay an undisclosed sum for Toledo, Ohio-based Impact Products. This privately held firm sells janitorial equipment, such as mops, pails, safety glasses and first aid kits, to businesses.

Expanding by acquisition adds risk, but the purchase looks like a good fit with Genuine’s office supplies and furniture business. The new operations will also add $85 million to Genuine’s $14.1 billion of annual sales. Moreover, small purchases like this tend to be easier to integrate.

The stock now trades at 19.0 times the company’s projected 2014 earnings of $4.58 a share. That’s a high p/e for a firm that supplies clients in cyclical industries like auto parts and manufacturing.

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GANNETT CO., INC. $31 (New York symbol GCI; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector: Shares outstanding: 226.8 million; Market cap: $7.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.3; Dividend yield: 2.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.gannett.com) has completed the sale of two TV stations in Phoenix and one in St. Louis for a total of $407.5 million.

The cash will help Gannett pay for its recent deal to buy six Texas TV stations from London Broadcasting Co. The company will pay $215 million when the deal closes in the next few months. To put these figures in context, Gannett earned $108.4 million, or $0.47 a share, in the first quarter of 2014.

Gannett is a buy.

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APPLE INC. $90 (Nasdaq symbol AAPL; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 6.0 billion; Market cap: $540.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 3.2; Dividend yield: 2.1%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.apple.com) has agreed to a settle a lawsuit that accused the company and five publishers of working together to illegally increase e-book prices.

The company did not say how much it would pay, but the lawsuit was seeking $840 million in damages. To put this in context, Apple held cash and investments of $150.6 billion, or $24.96 a share, as of March 29, 2014 (all per-share amounts adjusted for a 7-for-1 stock split in June 2014).

Apple is a hold.

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DIEBOLD INC. $39 (New York symbol DBD; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 64.6 million; Market cap: $2.5 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.9; Dividend yield: 2.9%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.diebold.com) is a leading maker of automated teller machines. It also makes safes, vaults and building-security systems. The company gets 55% of its revenue from outside North America.

In the three months ended March 31, 2014, Diebold’s revenue rose 8.6% to $688.3 million from $633.5 million a year earlier. If you exclude the negative impact of currency exchange rates, revenue rose 12.2%. That’s mainly because the company completed two large orders for election and lottery machines in Brazil.

Diebold is shifting toward services and software, which give it recurring revenue and cut its reliance on ATM sales. Services and software accounted for 56% of its first quarter revenue.

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NCR CORP. $33 (New York symbol NCR; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 167.9 million; Market cap: $5.5 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.9; No dividends paid; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.ncr.com) gets 52% of its revenue from ATMs. It also makes cash registers and self-serve checkouts (32% of revenue) and kiosks for theatres and arenas (10%). Maintenance services supply the other 6%. Overseas markets account for 60% of NCR’s revenue.

In the quarter ended March 31, 2014, NCR’s revenue rose 7.7%, to $1.5 billion from $1.4 billion a year earlier. That’s partly due to its January 2014 purchase of privately held Digital Insight Corp., whose software helps over 1,000 banks and credit unions manage their online and mobile transactions.

NCR paid $1.65 billion for this firm, which should add $350 million to its yearly revenue. Earnings fell 14.5%, to $53 million from $62 million. Pershare earnings declined 16.2%, to $0.31 from $0.37, on more shares outstanding.

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