Pat McKeough

A professional investment analyst for more than 30 years, Pat has developed a stock-selection technique that has proven reliable in both bull and bear markets. His proprietary ValuVesting System™ focuses on stocks that provide exceptional quality at relatively low prices. Many savvy investors and industry leaders consider it the most powerful stock-picking method ever created.

As early as 1980, Pat was recognized as #1 in the world of published investment advice by the Washington, DC–based Newsletter Publishers Association, and he was the first multi-year winner of The Globe and Mail’s stock picking contest.

Both CBS MarketWatch and The Hulbert Financial Digest recognized Pat as one of North America’s top stock analysts. The Wall Street Journal called him “one of only four investment newsletter advisors who have managed to serve their readers well over the long haul.”

A best-selling Canadian author, he wrote Riding the Bull, his 1993 book that predicted the stock-market boom of the last half of that decade. Through his many television appearances, he is well-known to investors for his insightful analysis and his candid, unpretentious style.

Bottom line: Pat’s conservative, reduced-risk strategy is a proven approach to safe investing.

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buying stocks
Pat McKeough responds to many requests from members of his Inner Circle for specific advice about buying stocks as well as questions on investment strategy and the economy. Every week, his comments and recommendations on the most intriguing questions of the past week go out to all Inner Circle members. And each week, we offer you one of the highlights from these Q&A sessions. While we reserve our buy-hold-sell advice for Inner Circle members, these excerpts provide a great deal of information and analysis on stocks we’ve covered for members of Pat’s Inner Circle. This week we had a question from an Inner Circle member about one of Canada’s three big grocery chains. Already the owner of Sobeys, Empire made a major acquisition late last year when it added the Canadian stores of U.S. chain Safeway. The deal gave the company a much larger presence in Western Canada to offset its concentration of Sobeys stores in eastern Canada. Pat examines the company’s business with Safeway on board and assesses the rewards and potential hidden risks of this big acquisition. ...
ENERFLEX LTD. $17.15 (Toronto symbol EFX; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (403-387-6377; www.enerflex.com; Shares outstanding: 78.3 million; Market cap:
$1.3 billion; Dividend yield: 1.8%) rents and sells equipment and services for natural gas production, including compression and processing plants, refrigeration equipment and power generators.

The company has a strong position in three expanding markets: U.S. and Canadian shale gas; Australian natural gas from coal beds; and conventional Middle Eastern natural gas, most of which gets converted to liquefied natural gas (LNG) for shipping worldwide.

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TOROMONT INDUSTRIES LTD. $26.96 (Toronto symbol TIH; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (416-667-5511; www.toromont.com; Shares outstanding: 76.9 million; Market cap: $2.1 billion; Dividend yield: 2.2%) distributes a broad range of industrial equipment, including machinery made by Caterpillar Inc. It also makes refrigeration systems through its CIMCO division.

The company completed the spinoff of Enerflex Ltd. (see right) in July 2011. Shareholders received shares of both the new Toromont Industries and Enerflex.

In the three months ended March 31, 2014, Toromont’s revenue fell slightly, to $311.7 million from $313.1 million a year earlier.

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AEROPOSTALE $4.68 (New York symbol ARO; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (646-485-5410; www.aeropostale.com; Shares outstanding: 78.5 million; Market cap: $378.4 million; No dividends paid) is undertaking a number of major initiatives to increase its sales and profits.

These moves are in response to the slow U.S. economy, which has increased the unemployment rate among teenagers, hurting sales at teen retailers like Aeropostale.

In the three months ended February 1, 2014, Aeropostale’s sales fell 16.0%, to $670.0 million from $797.7 million a year earlier. Same-store sales declined 15%. It lost $70.3 million, or $0.90 a share, compared to loss of $671,000, or $0.01.

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ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD $29.82 (Toronto symbol ATD.B: TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (1-800-361-2612; www.couche-tard.com; Shares outstanding: 538.2 million; Market cap: $17.1 billion; Dividend yield: 0.4%) has split its shares on a 3-for-1 basis.

When a company’s stock price goes up, it has an incentive to split the stock to make it seem cheaper to investors, who may then buy more. This can make the stock more liquid than if it refrained from splits and let its share price go to uncommonly high levels.

Alimentation Couche-Tard is a buy.

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SYMANTEC CORP. $21.41 (Nasdaq symbol SYMC; TSINetwork Rating: Average) (1-408-517-8000; www.symantec.com; Shares outstanding: 691.6 million; Market cap: $14.7 billion; Dividend yield: 2.8%) reports that its revenue fell 5.6% in its fiscal 2014 fourth quarter, which ended March 28, 2014, to $1.65 billion from $1.75 billion a year earlier.

However, earnings per share rose 6.8%, to $0.47 from $0.44, mainly due to savings from a new restructuring plan that includes job cuts and simplifying the company’s product lines.

Symantec now expects to earn $1.84 to $1.92 a share in fiscal 2015, which is higher than the consensus estimate of $1.83. The stock trades at just 11.4 times the midpoint of that range, mainly due to investor uncertainty after Symantec fired its CEO over the slow progress of its restructuring.

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SHERRITT INTERNATIONAL $4.63 (Toronto symbol S; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (1-800-704-6698; www.sherritt.com; Shares outstanding: 297.3 million; Market cap: $1.4 billion; Dividend yield: 0.9%) has fended off activist investor George Armoyan’s attempt to put three of his nominees on its nine-person board of directors.

Meanwhile, Armoyan has put forward a number of proposals for Sherritt to cut costs, reduce its debt and better align what he sees as the interests of shareholders, management and the board directors.

Even though he lost the board vote, Armoyan’s ongoing involvement, and his 5% interest in the company, should keep drawing investor attention to Sherritt’s strong long-term prospects. Sherritt is already putting a number of his proposals in place.

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MAJOR DRILLING $8.48 (Toronto symbol MDI; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (1-866-264-3986; www.majordrilling.com; Shares outstanding: 79.2 million; Market cap: $672.9 million; Dividend yield: 2.4%) is a large contract-drilling firm that mainly serves the mining industry.

In the three months ended January 31, 2014, Major’s revenue fell 41.7%, to $71.8 million from $123.3 million a year earlier. The company’s loss also widened to $12.8 million, or $0.16 a share, from $4.3 million, or $0.05. The latest earnings included a $3.3-million foreign exchange loss.

Many of Major’s large- and medium-sized mining customers, particularly gold companies, slowed their drilling activity in the latest quarter, and orders from junior miners dropped sharply.

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PASON SYSTEMS $30.37 (Toronto symbol PSI; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (403-301-3400; www.pason.com; Shares outstanding: 82.4 million; Market cap: $2.5 billion; Dividend yield: 2.0%) is trading near all-time highs as it continues to gain from the boom in U.S. shale oil and gas drilling.

Pason rents equipment for monitoring and managing oil and gas rigs. It also sells communication technology, such as its satellite system, which companies use to remotely collect data from their drilling operations. Pason serves oil and gas producers and drilling contractors throughout Canada, the U.S., Mexico, Argentina and Australia.

In the three months ended March 31, 2014, the company’s revenue rose 12.7%, to $123.2 million from $109.3 million a year earlier. Higher sales in the U.S., Australia and Canada offset slower drilling activity in Mexico and a significant devaluation of the Argentine currency.

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