Pat McKeough

A professional investment analyst for more than 30 years, Pat has developed a stock-selection technique that has proven reliable in both bull and bear markets. His proprietary ValuVesting System™ focuses on stocks that provide exceptional quality at relatively low prices. Many savvy investors and industry leaders consider it the most powerful stock-picking method ever created.

As early as 1980, Pat was recognized as #1 in the world of published investment advice by the Washington, DC–based Newsletter Publishers Association, and he was the first multi-year winner of The Globe and Mail’s stock picking contest.

Both CBS MarketWatch and The Hulbert Financial Digest recognized Pat as one of North America’s top stock analysts. The Wall Street Journal called him “one of only four investment newsletter advisors who have managed to serve their readers well over the long haul.”

A best-selling Canadian author, he wrote Riding the Bull, his 1993 book that predicted the stock-market boom of the last half of that decade. Through his many television appearances, he is well-known to investors for his insightful analysis and his candid, unpretentious style.

Bottom line: Pat’s conservative, reduced-risk strategy is a proven approach to safe investing.

Posts by the author
EMERA INC. $33 (Toronto symbol EMA; Income Portfolio, Utilities sector; Shares outstanding: 147.9 million; Market cap: $4.9 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.2; Dividend yield: 4.4%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.emera.com) is Nova Scotia’s main power supplier. It also holds interests in electrical utilities in the U.S. and the Caribbean. Other operations include the Brunswick pipeline, which pumps natural gas from the U.S. to a liquefied natural gas plant in New Brunswick.

Emera aims to start working on a new hydroelectric project on Labrador’s Churchill River by the end of this year. It will invest $600 million for a 29% stake in a new regulated utility, which will transmit power from Churchill River to the island of Newfoundland.

In addition, Emera will spend $1.5 billion to build an undersea cable, called the Maritime Link, that will transmit 20% of the plant’s power to Nova Scotia. Emera will own 100% of this cable. These two projects should begin operating by 2017.
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FORTIS INC. $32 (Toronto symbol FTS; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Utilities sector; Shares outstanding: 248.9 million; Market cap: $8.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.7; Dividend yield 3.9%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.fortis.ca) is the main electricity supplier in Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island. It also operates power plants in other parts of Canada, the U.S. and the Cayman Islands. In addition, wholly owned FortisBC Energy distributes natural gas in B.C.

Fortis recently completed its takeover of CH Energy Group, which supplies gas and power in New York State. Fortis paid $1.5 billion U.S., including the assumption of $500 million U.S. of CH’s debt.

The company made several concessions to win regulatory approval, including freezing electricity rates until June 2015. It also extended the contract of CH’s main union by one year, to April 30, 2017. These moves will hurt CH’s contribution to Fortis’s earnings, at least in the short term.
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ATCO LTD. (Toronto symbols ACO.X [class I non-voting] $44 and ACO.Y [class II voting] $44; Income Portfolio, Utilities sector; Shares outstanding: 115.2 million; Market cap: $5.1 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.3; Dividend yield: 1.7%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.atco.com) is a holding company. Its main subsidiary is 52.9%-owned Canadian Utilities (see left). It also owns 75.5% of ATCO Structures & Logistics, which builds temporary buildings for construction companies and energy exploration firms; Canadian Utilities owns the remaining 24.5%.

In the three months ended March 31, 2013, ATCO’s revenue rose 5.6% to $1.1 billion from $1.0 billion a year earlier. That’s mainly due to the higher contribution from Canadian Utilities. Revenue at its Structures division fell 0.9% after it completed several major projects in 2012.

Earnings fell 1.7%, to $117 million, or $1.01 a share, from $119 million, or $1.03. (All per-share amounts adjusted for a 2-for-1 stock split in May 2013.)
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CANADIAN UTILITIES LTD. (Toronto symbols CU [class A non-voting] $36 and CU.X [class B voting] $36; Income Portfolio, Utilities sector; Shares outstanding: 258.2 million; Market cap: $9.3 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 3.2; Dividend yield: 2.7%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www. canadianutilities.com) distributes electricity and natural gas in Alberta and Australia. It also operates 18 power plants in Canada, Australia and the U.K. ATCO Ltd. (see right) owns 52.9% of the company.

In the quarter ended March 31, 2013, Canadian Utilities earned $183 million, down 3.7% from $190 million a year earlier. Earnings per share fell 4.2%, to $0.68 from $0.71. (All per-share amounts adjusted for a 2-for-1 stock split in May 2013.)

Without unusual items, mainly deferred payments from or refunds paid to customers, earnings would have risen 3.4%. Revenue gained 8.0%, to $876 million from $811 million. Colder-than-normal winter weather increased demand for electricity and natural gas. Higher rates in Australia also contributed to the gain.
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CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY LTD. $129 (Toronto symbol CP; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 175.0 million; Market cap: $22.6 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 3.9; Dividend yield: 1.1%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.cpr.ca) expects to ship 70,000 carloads of crude oil in 2013, up sharply from just 13,000 in 2011.

However, the crash could hurt the oil-by-rail boom. (Note: Montreal, Maine and Atlantic Ltd., operated the train involved in the crash, not CP.)

It seems likely that regulators will require railways to replace their current tanker cars with models that can better withstand collisions. They may also demand that railways place more workers on their trains, and install automatic-braking equipment.
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TRANSCANADA CORP. $46 (Toronto symbol TRP; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Utilities sector; Shares outstanding: 707.0 million; Market cap: $32.5 billion; Priceto- sales ratio: 3.9; Dividend yield: 4.0%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.transcanada.com) operates a 57,000- kilometre pipeline network that pumps natural gas from Alberta to Eastern Canada and the U.S. The company’s pipelines supply 20% of North America’s natural gas. In 2012, they provided 53% of TransCanada’s revenue and 60% of its earnings.

The company also owns or invests in 21 power plants in Alberta, Ontario, Quebec and the northeastern U.S. In all, these facilities have over 11,800 megawatts of generating capacity. TransCanada’s electricity operations now supply 34% of its revenue and 21% of its earnings.

In 2011, the company started up its oil-pipeline division. This business mainly consists of the Keystone pipeline, which pumps oil from Alberta to refineries in Illinois, and a distribution hub in Cushing, Oklahoma. Oil pipelines supply the remaining 13% of TransCanada’s revenue and 19% of its earnings.
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Big U.K. acquisition helps profits soar for CGI
YUNUS ARAKON
CGI GROUP INC. (Toronto symbol GIB.A; www.cgi.com) is Canada’s largest provider of computer outsourcing services. CGI helps its clients automate routine functions, like accounting and buying supplies. That makes them more efficient and lets them focus on their main businesses. CGI is a long-term recommendation of our Successful Investor newsletter. We made it our #1 Canadian stock of the year in 2010 at $15. The stock has risen 107% for our subscribers since then. We also made it our stock of the year in 2011. The stock is up 73% since then....
ENBRIDGE INC. $44.53 (Toronto symbol ENB; Shares outstanding: 809.3 million; Market cap: $36.3 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; Dividend yield: 2.8%; www.enbridge.com) has shut down three of its oil pipelines near Fort McMurray, Alberta, after heavy rain weakened the ground beneath one of them, causing a minor spill.

The company has since reopened two of these lines and expects to restart the third in the next few days. The shutdown is costing Enbridge about $1 million a day in lost revenue. To put that in context, the company’s revenue was $8.0 billion, or over $89 million a day, in the first three months of 2013.

Enbridge is a buy.
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CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY $127.99 (Toronto symbol CP; Shares outstanding: 174.7 million; Market cap: $22.6 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Average; Dividend yield: 1.1%; www.cpr.ca) continues to benefit from its aggressive plan to improve its efficiency with new locomotives, upgraded tracks and software that optimizes train loads and speeds.

For example, CP has cut the time it takes to ship intermodal containers between Toronto and Calgary by 20 hours. The trip now takes 64 hours.

Speeding up service will help CP attract more customers. It will also help it reach its goal of lowering its operating ratio from 75.8% in the first quarter of 2013 to around 65% by the middle of 2016. (Operating ratio is calculated by dividing a railway’s regular operating costs by its revenue. The lower the ratio, the better.)
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