Pat McKeough

A professional investment analyst for more than 30 years, Pat has developed a stock-selection technique that has proven reliable in both bull and bear markets. His proprietary ValuVesting System™ focuses on stocks that provide exceptional quality at relatively low prices. Many savvy investors and industry leaders consider it the most powerful stock-picking method ever created.

As early as 1980, Pat was recognized as #1 in the world of published investment advice by the Washington, DC–based Newsletter Publishers Association, and he was the first multi-year winner of The Globe and Mail’s stock picking contest.

Both CBS MarketWatch and The Hulbert Financial Digest recognized Pat as one of North America’s top stock analysts. The Wall Street Journal called him “one of only four investment newsletter advisors who have managed to serve their readers well over the long haul.”

A best-selling Canadian author, he wrote Riding the Bull, his 1993 book that predicted the stock-market boom of the last half of that decade. Through his many television appearances, he is well-known to investors for his insightful analysis and his candid, unpretentious style.

Bottom line: Pat’s conservative, reduced-risk strategy is a proven approach to safe investing.

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Thinking about dividend capture? Learn why ex dividend date trading often disappoints Canadians after spreads, taxes, FX and volatility, plus safer options.
DIAGEO PLC ADRs $123 (New York symbol DEO; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; ADRs outstanding: 627.6 million; Market cap: $77.2 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 4.6; Dividend yield: 1.8%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.diageo.com) has raised its stake in United Spirits, India’s largest distiller, from 10.04% to 25.02%. Diageo is now United Spirits’ largest shareholder. It also controls the company through voting agreements with other major shareholders.

Diageo paid 594.4 million British pounds for this additional stake (1 British pound = $1.58 Canadian). To put that in context, the company earned 1.5 billion pounds, or 2.44 pounds per ADR, in the six months ended December 31, 2012. (Each American Depositary Receipt represents four Diageo common shares.)

The purchase will help Diageo profit from rising demand for premium spirits in India. However, it will take at least a year before the new operations add to the company’s earnings.
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MCCORMICK & CO. INC. $72 (New York symbol MKC; Income Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 132.0 million; Market cap: $9.5 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.4; Dividend yield: 1.9%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.mccormick.com) earned $78.6 million in its fiscal 2013 second quarter, which ended May 31, 2013. That’s down 2.2% from $80.4 million a year earlier. Earnings per share fell 1.7%, to $0.59 from $0.60, on fewer shares outstanding. If you disregard costs to integrate a Chinese maker of bouillon products that McCormick recently purchased, it would have earned $0.61 a share in the latest quarter.

Sales rose 1.9%, to $1.0 billion from $984.0 million. Sales to consumers (59% of the total) rose 3.9%, mainly because the company launched successful new products and improved its marketing. It also raised its prices. However, sales to businesses (41% of the total) fell 0.9%, mainly due to fewer orders from fast-food restaurants in the U.S.

McCormick is a buy.
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MCDONALD’S CORP. $97 (New York symbol MCD; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 1.0 billion; Market cap: $97.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 3.6; Dividend yield: 3.2%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.mcdonalds.com) plans to open its first restaurant in Vietnam next year.

This new outlet will face strong competition from other U.S. fast food chains, such as KFC, Pizza Hut, Starbucks and Subway, that already operate in the country. However, the population is young and eager to embrace foreign brands. Moreover, the son-in-law of Vietnam’s prime minister will own and operate this franchise. That cuts the risk of this expansion.

McDonald’s is a buy....
J.P. MORGAN CHASE & CO. $57 (New York symbol JPM; Income Portfolio, Finance sector; Shares outstanding: 3.8 billion; Market cap: $216.6 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.3; Dividend yield: 2.7%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www. jpmorganchase.com) cut its loan-loss provisions by 78.0% in the second quarter of 2013, to $47 million from $214 million a year earlier. It also improved its efficiency ratio to 62.9% from 67.5%.

These savings helped raise Morgan’s earnings by 31.0% in the quarter, to $6.5 billion from $5.0 billion a year ago. Due to fewer shares outstanding, earnings per share rose 32.2%, to $1.60 from $1.21. Revenue gained 13.7%, to $25.2 billion from $22.2 billion. That’s mainly due to higher fees from its wealth management division and gains from trading securities.

An unexpected $6-billion loss at Morgan’s trading division caused the stock to fall to $32 in June 2012, but it has rebounded strongly. It now trades at 9.7 times Morgan’s likely 2013 earnings of $5.89 a share. The $1.52-a-share dividend yields 2.7%.
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WELLS FARGO & CO. $44 (New York symbol WFC; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Finance sector; Shares outstanding: 5.3 billion; Market cap: $233.2 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.8; Dividend yield: 2.7%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.wellsfargo.com) set aside $652 million to cover bad loans in the three months ended June 30, 2013, down 63.8% from $1.8 billion a year earlier. That helped push up its earnings by 19.7%, to $5.3 billion, or $0.98 a share. A year ago, it earned $4.4 billion, or $0.82 a share.

Revenue rose 0.4%, to $21.4 billion from $21.3 billion. Borrowers continue to refinance their mortgages at lower rates, which cuts Wells Fargo’s interest income. However, the bank is doing a good job of getting its clients to sign up for more services, such as credit cards and wealth management. As a result, income from fees and other sources rose 3.7%.

In addition, Wells Fargo continues to cut its operating costs, like salaries and rent. In the latest quarter, its efficiency ratio (non-interest operating expenses divided by revenue— the lower, the better) improved to 57.3% from 58.2% a year ago.
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FEDEX CORP. $106 (New York symbol FDX; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 316.6 million; Market cap: $33.6 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.8; Dividend yield: 0.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.fedex.com) delivers packages and documents in the U.S. and over 220 other countries and territories.

The stock has moved up in the past few weeks, partly due to speculation that activist investment firm Pershing Square Capital Management (see page 71) will soon make a significant investment in FedEx.

However, it seems unlikely that Pershing would be interested in FedEx, because it prefers underperforming firms that could spur their earnings by cutting costs. FedEx is already restructuring as more companies choose slower but cheaper delivery methods, like trucks and ships, over its more expensive overnight international air service.
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CINTAS CORP. $48 (Nasdaq symbol CTAS; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 122.3 million; Market cap: $5.9 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.4; Dividend yield: 1.3%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.cintas- .com) designs and makes uniforms, which it sells to over 900,000 businesses, mainly in North America. It also offers related services, including office cleaning and document shredding.

In its 2013 fiscal year, which ended May 31, 2013, Cintas’s sales rose 5.2%, to a record $4.3 billion from $4.1 billion a year earlier. Sales at the uniform business, which supplied 71% of Cintas’s overall revenue, rose 4.5%, while sales at its other divisions (29% of the total) gained 6.9%. Earnings increased 6.0%, to $315.4 million from $297.6 million. Due to fewer shares outstanding, earnings per share rose 11.0%, to $2.52 from $2.27.

The stock trades at a reasonable 17.7 times the $2.71 a share that Cintas will probably earn in fiscal 2014.

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INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP. $197 (New York symbol IBM, Conservative Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 1.1 billion; Market cap: $216.7 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.2; Dividend yield: 1.9%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.ibm.com) continues to enjoy strong demand for its software, as it helps businesses analyze large amounts of data and improve their efficiency. That’s helping IBM offset slow sales of its mainframe computers.

IBM is a buy.

TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC. $39 (Nasdaq symbol TXN; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 1.1 billion; Market cap: $42.9 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 3.5; Dividend yield: 2.9%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.ti.com) plans to stop making chips for cellphones due to intense competition from larger chipmakers. Instead, it is shifting to analog chips, which convert sounds and temperatures into digital signals that computers can understand. While not as profitable, sales of analog chips are much less volatile than wireless chips.
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INTEL CORP. $23 (Nasdaq symbol INTC; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 5.0 billion; Market cap: $115.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.2; Dividend yield: 3.9%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.intel.com) is the world’s leading computer chip maker. Its products power 80% of the world’s personal computers.

In the three months ended June 29, 2013, Intel’s sales fell 5.1%, to $12.8 billion from $13.5 billion a year earlier. Sales of personal computer chips (which supply 63% of Intel’s total sales) fell 7.5%, while sales of chips for server computers were flat. Earnings declined 29.3%, to $2.0 billion from $2.8 billion. Due to fewer shares outstanding, earnings per share fell 27.8%, to $0.39 from $0.54.

Intel continues to invest heavily in new chips. It spent $2.52 billion (or 19.6% of its sales) on research in the latest quarter, up slightly from $2.51 billion (or 18.6% of sales) a year earlier.

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