Search

ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD $73.50 (Toronto symbol ATD.B: TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (1-800-361-2612; www.couchetard. com; Shares outstanding: 179.4 million; Market cap: $13.6 billion; Dividend yield: 0.5%) operates 6,198 convenience stores throughout North America. The Canadian outlets operate under the Couche-Tard and Mac’s banners, while the U.S. stores mainly use the Circle K brand.
< br /> In Europe, Couche-Tard operates 2,287 stores across Scandinavia (Norway, Sweden and Denmark), Poland, the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) and Russia.
< br /> In the three months ended July 21, 2013, Couche-Tard’s sales jumped 48.0%, to $8.9 billion from $6.0 billion a year earlier. The gain mostly came from Norway’s Statoil Fuel & Retail chain of European gas stations, which Couche-Tard bought for $2.7 billion in June 2012 (all figures except share price in U.S. dollars). The company also sold more fuel, and expanded its merchandise sales.
...

HEWLETT-PACKARD CO. (New York symbol HPQ; www.hp.com) is a leading maker of personal computers and printers. It also makes server computers and networking products for businesses....

Pat McKeough responds to many requests from members of his Inner Circle for specific advice on trading stocks as well as questions on investment strategy and the economy. Every week, his comments and recommendations on the most intriguing questions of the past week go out to all Inner Circle members. And each week, we offer you one of the highlights from these Q&A sessions. While we reserve our buy-hold-sell advice for Inner Circle members, these excerpts provide a great deal of information and analysis on stocks we’ve covered for members of Pat’s Inner Circle....

PRECISION DRILLING CORP. (Toronto symbol PD; www.precisiondrilling.com) provides contract-drilling services to land-based oil and gas producers, mainly in North America. As of June 30, 2013, it had 324 rigs in service....

PENGROWTH ENERGY CORP. $6.37 (www.pengrowth.com) has gained nearly 30% in the past three months. That’s mainly because the company has successfully completed its plan to sell some of its less important oil and gas properties in Western Canada. The cash from these sales will help Pengrowth speed up the development of its Lindbergh oil sands project in Alberta....

METRO INC. $65 (www.metro.ca) has developed a new mobile app for the Apple iPhone. This program lets Metro offer shoppers customized discounts and promotions based on the location of their nearest Metro supermarket. The app also makes it easier to find specific items within a store and suggests alternative products....

SNC-LAVALIN GROUP INC. $43 (www.snclavalin.com) continues to win new engineering contracts despite last year’s bribery scandal. ZADCO, a joint venture headed by Abu Dhabi’s state owned oil company, recently hired SNC to design a major addition to its oil refinery. Buy.

HOME CAPITAL GROUP INC. $72 (Toronto symbol HCG; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Finance sector; Shares outstanding: 34.7 million; Market cap; $2.5 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.2; Dividend yield: 1.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www. homecapital.com) gets 90% of its revenue by making residential mortgage loans to borrowers who don’t meet the stricter standards of larger, traditional lenders, like banks. These clients include recent immigrants with limited credit histories and self-employed individuals.

The remaining 10% of Home Capital’s revenue mainly comes from credit cards and other loans to consumers and businesses.


...

LOBLAW COMPANIES LTD. $46 (Toronto symbol L; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 282.1 million; Market cap: $13.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.4; Dividend yield: 2.1%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.loblaw.ca) continues to expand its Joe Fresh business, which makes casual clothing and accessories.

In addition to selling these goods in its supermarkets, Loblaw has also opened over 20 stand-alone Joe Fresh stores in Canada and the U.S. In October 2013, Joe Fresh began selling its products in Canada through its own website.

In the U.S., Joe Fresh sells its goods online through an alliance with struggling department store operator J.C. Penney (New York symbol JCP). Joe Fresh has also opened boutiques inside nearly 700 of Penney’s 1,100 department stores in the U.S.
...

SUNCOR ENERGY INC. $36 (Toronto symbol SU; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 1.5 billion; Market cap: $54.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.4; Dividend yield: 2.2%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www. suncor.com) produced an average of 365,000 barrels of oil a day at its oil sands projects in September 2013....

MAPLE LEAF FOODS INC. $13 (Toronto symbol MFI; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 140.0 million; Market cap: $1.8 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.4; Dividend yield: 1.2%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.mapleleaf.ca) has received regulatory approval for its plan to sell its Rothsay rendering operations.

Rothsay recycles by-products from Maple Leaf’s main meatprocessing operations into a variety of ingredients for other products, including animal feed, soaps, lotions, cosmetics, fertilizers and plastics. Rothsay also makes biodiesel fuels.

The company will receive $645 million when the deal closes on October 28, 2013. It will use the cash to pay down its $1.3 billion of long-term debt.
...

CANADIAN IMPERIAL BANK OF COMMERCE $82 (Toronto symbol CM; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Finance sector; Shares outstanding: 400.0 million; Market cap: $32.8 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.9; Dividend yield: 4.7%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.cibc.com) has launched Aventura, a new credit card loyalty plan for travellers. Aventura cards let users earn points on their purchases and redeem them for free flights and other benefits.

Toronto-Dominion Bank (see page 104) recently replaced CIBC as the primary issuer of cards under the popular Aeroplan loyalty program. As part of the deal, CIBC will hang on to Aeroplan accounts held by customers who also bank at CIBC. That’s about half the Aeroplan portfolio.

The bank estimates that losing half of the Aeroplan business will cut its annual earnings by $0.45 a share; in the year ended October 31, 2012, it earned $8.07 a share. However, the additional benefits of the Aventura plan, including letting users fly on any airline and not just Air Canada, should help it attract more customers.
...

TRANSCANADA CORP. $44 (Toronto symbol TRP; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Utilities sector; Shares outstanding: 707.1 million; Market cap: $31.1 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 3.5; Dividend yield: 4.2%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.transcanada.com) expects to complete the southern portion of its Keystone XL pipeline by the end of 2013. This $2.3-billion U.S. project will pump crude oil from terminals in Cushing, Oklahoma, to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Demand for this pipeline from oil shippers is strong, because rising shale oil production in North Dakota has increased inventories at Cushing and hurt crude prices.

The company still hopes to win approval for Keystone XL’s northern portion, which would pump oil from Alberta to the Gulf Coast. The U.S. government will probably announce its decision in 2014.

TransCanada is a buy....

EMERA INC. $29 (Toronto symbol EMA; Income Portfolio, Utilities sector; Shares outstanding: 132.4 million; Market cap: $3.8 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.7; Dividend yield: 4.8%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.emera.com) is Nova Scotia’s main power supplier. It also holds interests in electrical utilities in the U.S. and the Caribbean.

The company continues to invest in promising new projects. For example, it recently agreed to pay $541 million U.S. for three natural-gas-fired power plants in New England. Emera also plans to pay $390 million for a 34.5% stake in a power plant in Labrador. In addition, it will spend $1.5 billion to build an undersea cable that will transmit 20% of this facility’s power to Nova Scotia.

Closing a non-regulated power plant for maintenance helped cut Emera’s second-quarter earnings by 8.0%, to $42.6 million from $46.3 million a year earlier. Earnings per share fell 13.5%, to $0.32 from $0.37, on more shares outstanding. However, overall revenue still rose 1.0%, to $506.5 million from $501.3 million, thanks to colder-than-normal weather in Nova Scotia and higher power rates.
...

FORTIS INC. $31 (Toronto symbol FTS; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Utilities sector; Shares outstanding: 211.7 million; Market cap: $6.6 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.8; Dividend yield 4.0%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.fortis.ca) is the main electricity supplier in Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island. It also distributes natural gas in B.C. and operates power plants in other parts of Canada, the U.S. and the Caribbean.

On June 27, 2013, Fortis paid $1.5 billion U.S. for CH Energy, which distributes gas and electricity in New York State.

Without costs related to this acquisition and other unusual items, Fortis earned $61 million, or $0.32 a share, in the second quarter of 2013. That’s down 10.3% from $68 million, or $0.36, a year earlier. The decline is mainly due to lower rates and volumes at its B.C. gas utility. Revenue fell 0.3%, to $790 million from $792 million.
...

PRECISION DRILLING CORP. $10 (Toronto symbol PD; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Resource sector; Shares outstanding: 276.9 million; Market cap: $2.8 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.4; Dividend yield: 2.0%; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk; www.precisiondrilling.com) provides contract-drilling services to land-based oil and gas producers, mainly in North America. As of June 30, 2013, it had 324 rigs in service.

Wet weather in Western Canada and low gas prices have hurt demand for Precision’s rigs. In the second quarter of 2013, its revenue fell 0.8%, to $378.9 million from $382.0 million a year earlier.

However, demand for the company’s Super Series rigs, which can reach deeper pockets of oil and gas, remains strong.
...

TORONTO-DOMINION BANK $91 (Toronto symbol TD; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Finance sector; Shares outstanding: 917.6 million; Market cap: $83.5 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.8; Dividend yield: 3.7%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.td.com) has agreed to pay $52.5 million U.S. to settle charges that it failed to report suspicious transactions related to a fraudulent investment scheme in Florida. Separately, the bank is appealing a court ruling that it pay $67 million U.S. related to this case.

These amounts are small next to the $1.6 billion (Canadian), or $1.65 a share, that TD earned in the quarter ended July 31, 2013. Still, settling these charges cuts TD’s risk, especially in light of tighter enforcement from U.S. securities regulators.

TD Bank is a buy....

BLACKBERRY LTD. $8.44 (Toronto symbol BB; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 524.6 million; Market cap: $4.4 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.4; No dividends paid; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative; www.blackberry.com) lost $965 million, or $1.84 a share, in the three months ended August 31, 2013 (all amounts except share price and market cap in U.S. dollars). That’s mainly because it wrote down the value of its unsold Z10 touchscreen smartphones by $934 million. A year earlier, it lost $229 million, or $0.44 a share. Revenue fell 45.0%, to $1.6 billion from $2.9 billion.

The company has accepted a $9.00 U.S.-a-share takeover offer from Fairfax Financial Holdings (Toronto symbol FFH). However, it’s unclear if Fairfax can complete the deal. That’s why the stock is trading at 9.8% below the offer price.

Due to its worsening financial condition, we’ve cut BlackBerry’s TSINetwork Rating from “Average” to “Speculative.”
...

CGI GROUP INC. $36 (Toronto symbol GIB.A; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 310.9 million; Market cap: $11.2 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.2; No dividends paid; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk; www.cgi.com) is Canada’s largest provider of computer outsourcing services. CGI helps its clients automate routine functions, like accounting and buying supplies. That makes them more efficient and lets them focus on their main businesses.

CGI was our Stock of the Year for both 2010 and 2011. We first recommended it as our top choice at $15, which works out to a 140.0% gain.

The company continues to benefit from its August 2012 purchase of U.K.-based outsourcing firm Logica. Thanks to Logica, CGI earned $200.4 million in its 2013 third quarter, which ended June 30, 2013. That’s up 115.3% from $93.0 million a year ago. Due to more shares outstanding, per-share earnings rose 80.0%, to $0.63 from $0.35.
...

CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY LTD. $134 (Toronto symbol CP; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 175.0 million; Market cap: $23.5 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 3.9; Dividend yield: 1.0%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.cpr.ca) transports freight between Montreal and Vancouver and connects with hubs in the U.S. Midwest and Northeast. It gets 25% of its revenue from the U.S.

CP was our top pick for 2012 at $69. Since then, the stock has jumped 94.2%.

The company continues to improve its efficiency, mainly with more efficient locomotives, better tracks, and software that optimizes train loads and speeds. In the quarter ended June 30, 2013, CP’s earnings soared 144.7%, to $252 million from $103 million a year earlier. Per-share earnings gained 138.3%, to $1.43 from $0.60, on more shares outstanding.
...

TECK RESOURCES LTD. $26 (Toronto symbol TCK.B; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 576.3 million; Market cap: $15.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.6; Dividend yield: 3.5%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.teck.com) is a leading producer of metallurgical coal, a key ingredient in steelmaking. It also produces copper and zinc.

The stock is down 29.7% from $37 when we named it our top pick for 2013. That’s mainly because slowing industrial activity, mainly in Asia, has hurt commodity prices.

In quarter ended June 30, 2013, earnings fell 50.5%, to $197 million, or $0.34 a share. These figures exclude unusual items, such as foreign exchange losses and writedowns. A year earlier, Teck earned $398 million, or $0.68 a share.
...

MANITOBA TELECOM SERVICES INC. $29 (Toronto symbol MBT; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Utilities sector; Shares outstanding: 67.8 million; Market cap: $2.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.3; Dividend yield: 5.9%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.mts.ca) fell 10% after the federal government blocked its recent deal to sell its Allstream subsidiary to an Egyptian billionaire.

Allstream provides integrated telephone, Internet and other communication services to over 50,000 businesses across Canada, as well as government agencies. Ottawa felt that selling Allstream to a foreign investor could risk national security.

If you disregard costs related to the sale, Manitoba Telecom now expects to earn $1.15 to $1.45 a share in 2013. Without Allstream, it probably would have earned around $1.75 a share. The stock trades at a high 22.3 times the midpoint of the new range.
...

AGRIUM INC. $87 (Toronto symbol AGU; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 147.0 million; Market cap: $12.8 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.8; Dividend yield: 3.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.agrium.com) has expanded its retail operations in the past few years.

This business is now the world’s largest seller of seeds, fertilizers and other products to farmers, with over 1,200 stores in North America, Australia, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay and Brazil. In 2012, the retail division accounted for 65% of Agrium’s revenue and 32% of its earnings.

In addition, Agrium makes nitrogen-based fertilizer at four wholly owned plants in Canada and one in the U.S. It also owns 50% of a nitrogen facility in Argentina and 26% of one in Egypt. Operating in these countries adds risk, but these plants only account for a small part of Agrium’s revenue. In addition, this division makes potash and phosphate fertilizers.
...

MANULIFE FINANCIAL $18.66 (Toronto symbol MFC; Shares outstanding: 1.8 billion; Market cap: $33.7 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; Dividend yield: 2.8%; www.manulife.ca) sells life and other forms of insurance, as well as mutual funds and investment-management services. It operates globally and has $567 billion of assets under management.

Excluding one-time items, Manulife’s earnings per share rose 3.3% in the three months ended June 30, 2013, to $0.31 from $0.30. That fell short of the consensus estimate of $0.34. Revenue rose slightly, to $6.50 billion from $6.42 billion.

Insurance sales were down 3%, mostly due to lower sales in Asia, where sales were unusually high a year earlier ahead of tax changes. That offset stronger demand for mutual funds and investment products.
...

CENOVUS ENERGY $30.31 (Toronto symbol CVE; Shares outstanding: 755.8 million; Market cap: $23.3 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Average; Dividend yield: 3.2%; www.cenovus.com) operates three heavy oil projects in Alberta and one in Saskatchewan. It gets about half its output from the oil sands. Conventional oil and natural gas wells supply the other half. The company’s reserves should last 23 years.

In the three months ended June 30, 2013, Cenovus’s production rose 2.2%. The increase helped push up revenue to $4.5 billion from $4.2 billion. However, higher operating costs from new projects caused the company’s earnings to decline 8.1%, to $0.34 from $0.37. Cash flow per share fell 5.7%, to $1.15 from $1.22.

Cenovus’s outlook is positive, and it plans to spend $3.3 billion to $3.7 billion annually over the next 10 years to increase its production.
...