oil prices

PENGROWTH ENERGY TRUST $20 (Toronto symbol PGF.UN; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Units outstanding: 247.9 million; Market cap: $5.0 billion; SI Rating: Average) is one of North America’s largest energy royalty trusts. Pengrowth produces oil and natural gas from properties in Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan. It also owns 8.4% of the Sable Offshore Energy Project, which extracts natural gas from several fields south of Nova Scotia. Natural gas accounts for roughly 60% of Pengrowth’s production, while oil supplies the remaining 40%. Pengrowth focuses mainly on high quality, mature properties that give it plenty of steady cash flows. In the past three years, it has acquired properties that have increased its reserves by 45% and its production by 63%. Based on current production levels, Pengrowth’s reserves should last at least 10 years. Pengrowth uses hedging contracts to lock-in selling prices and stabilize its cash flows. Due to the sharp rise in oil prices in the past few months, Pengrowth had to write down the value of these contracts. Unrealized foreign exchange losses have also weighed on its profits....

The main drawback to most income and royalty trusts is that many of them contain low quality assets. We aim to zero in on trusts with high quality assets that provide stable cash flows and distributions. Even the best trusts, such as these three, are still highly cyclical. However, we feel they will continue to pay above-average yields, even after Ottawa starts taxing trust distributions in 2011. Investors should limit their income trust holdings to no more than 15% of their overall portfolio....

BCE INC. $33.60, Toronto symbol BCE, fell sharply this week after Quebec’s Supreme Court ruled in favour of a lawsuit launched by the company’s bondholders to block the takeover. The bondholders felt it reduced the security of their investments. BCE and the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, which heads a private group that has agreed to buy BCE for $42.75 a share, plan to appeal this ruling to the Supreme Court of Canada. That will likely delay the takeover beyond the June 30, 2008 target date. It could also force the consortium to re-price or scrap the takeover. Depending on the circumstances, BCE may receive a $1 billion or $1.24 a share break-up fee from the consortium if the deal falls through. That’s equal to 3% of its market cap of $30 billion. The company could use that cash to expand its wireless and high-speed Internet services, or increase its $1.46 dividend (4.3% yield). BCE could also unlock some of its value by spinning off some of its operations....

FORDING CANADIAN COAL $62.06 (Toronto symbol FDG.UN; SI Rating: Average) jumped 10% to a new all-time high recently after South Korean steelmaker Posco agreed to pay $308 U.S. a tonne for coal from BHP Billiton in the coal year that began on April 1, 2008. That’s 210% more than the industry benchmark price of $98 U.S. in the prior year. Fording is still negotiating new prices with its customers. Higher coal prices will help it offset rising labour, transportation and other costs. Fording units currently yield 3.2%. Fording is still a buy....

CHEVRON CORP. $94 (New York symbol CVX; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 2.1 billion; Market cap: $197.4 billion; WSSF Rating: Above average) has gained just 24% since January 2008. Oil is up 40% since then. In general, oil stocks have lagged because oil prices rise or fall in response to short-term changes in oil supply or demand, which can reverse overnight. Despite the recent gains, a slowing U.S. economy could spur a large drop in oil prices. We recommend conservative investors stick to industry leaders like Chevron. Its wide sources of revenue (production, refining and retail gas stations) helps shield it from volatile oil prices....

Oil has shot up 40% since January 2008, from around $85 a barrel to nearly $120. However, many oil stocks have failed to rise along with it. For example, CHEVRON CORP. $94 (New York symbol CVX; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 2.1 billion; Market cap: $197.4 billion; WSSF Rating: Above average) has gained just 24% during the same time. In general, oil stocks have lagged because oil prices rise or fall in response to short-term changes in oil supply or demand, which can reverse overnight. Despite the recent gains, a slowing U.S. economy could spur a large drop in oil prices....

BOMBARDIER INC. $6.32 (Toronto symbol BBD.A) earned $0.26 a share in its fiscal year ended January 31, 2008, up 85.7% from $0.14 in the prior year (all amounts except share price in U.S. dollars). Revenue grew 17.5%, to $17.5 billion from $14.9 billion. Aircraft deliveries rose 10.7% in fiscal 2008, to 361 from 326. Revenue at Bombardier’s train division grew 18.2%, thanks to strong demand for passenger railcars in China and India. Buy. INDIGO BOOKS & MUSIC INC. $13 (Toronto symbol IDG) is doing a good job attracting users to its website with online community groups based on authors and genres. Since their launch in October 2007, these groups now have over 100,000 members. Features like this help build customer loyalty and spur sales. Buy. TRANSCONTINENTAL INC. $18 (Toronto symbol TCL.A) has increased its quarterly dividend 14.3%, from $0.07 a share to $0.08. The new annual rate of $0.32 yields 1.8%. Buy....

TRANSCANADA CORP. $36.34, Toronto symbol TRP, fell about 9% this week after it agreed to buy the Ravenswood power plant located in Queens, New York for $2.9 billion U.S. The plant has the capacity to service 21% of New York City’s peak electricity load. The price is 10% more than TransCanada’s 2007 cash flow of $2.6 billion or $4.95 a share. TransCanada will probably issue $1.2 billion worth of new common shares to help pay for this purchase. TransCanada foresees as much as $2 billion in investment opportunities for capacity expansion and efficiency improvements at the facility. As well, Ravenswood provides diversification in power generation and into the U.S....

FAIR ISAAC CORP. $24.38, New York symbol FIC, has as its main business its FICO software, which lets creditors use information about a customer to calculate a credit score. The subprime mortgage crisis has hurt the banks and other financial institutions that are Fair Isaac’s major customers. These customers may cut back on software spending in the near term. However, over the longer term, the subprime crisis will likely increase demand for Fair Isaac’s reliable credit-scoring software. The company now hopes a new restructuring plan will improve its profitability. It plans to sell several non-core operations, cut staff and consolidate facilities. These moves should cut its annual pre-tax expenses by $35 million. To put that in context, Fair Isaac earned $20.2 million or $0.39 a share in the three months ended December 31, 2007....

The markets rattled many investors this week with steep one-day drops. At times like this, it’s good to remember that even when a further decline lies ahead, high volatility generally signals that it’s “a good time to buy”, rather than “a good time to sell”. It’s also encouraging to see that despite the steep one-day drops, most major market indexes are still at or above the lows they hit in January. BANK OF MONTREAL $43.10, Toronto symbol BMO, fell over 10% this week after it announced writedowns of asset-backed securities and higher loan loss provisions. In its first fiscal quarter ended January 31, 2008, earnings fell 26.7% to $255 million or $0.47 a share from $348 million or $0.67 a share a year earlier. The latest earnings figure included a $324 million after-tax writedown of securities, plus a $38 million rise in loan loss provisions. If you exclude unusual items, earnings fell 8.3%....