spin off

We looked at a wide range of stocks before settling on CAE as our #1 pick for 2015. Here are the top three runners-up. All are highly attractive buys, but we feel CAE offers a better mix of long-term potential and low risk. CANADIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY CO. $78 (Toronto symbol CNR; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 809.3 million; Market cap: $63.1 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 5.5; Dividend yield: 1.3%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.cn.ca) has several key advantages that put it in a strong position to profit from an improving North American economy. For example, it’s the only railway that accesses all three coasts: Atlantic, Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. As well, CN owns an exclusive line that lets it avoid major bottlenecks in the Chicago area....

MONSANTO CO., $119.04, New York symbol MON, sells technology-based agricultural products, such as genetically modified seeds, to farmers, grain processors and food companies. It also sells weed- and pest-control products. In the first quarter of its 2015 fiscal year, which ended November 30, 2014, Monsanto earned $243 million, down 34.0% from $368 million a year earlier. Earnings per share fell 27.5%, to $0.50 from $0.69, on fewer shares outstanding. Without unusual items, earnings per share declined 29.9%, to $0.47 from $0.67, but that still beat the consensus forecast of $0.35. Sales fell 8.7%, to $2.9 billion from $3.1 billion, but that also beat the consensus forecast of $2.8 billion....

BHP BILLITON LTD. ADRs $55 (New York symbol BHP; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; ADRs outstanding: 1.6 billion; Market cap: $88.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.2; Dividend yield: 4.5%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.bhpbilliton.com) still plans to spin off its aluminum, manganese, nickel and silver operations, as well as some coal mines, into a separate company in the first half of 2015. After the spinoff, BHP will focus on four main commodities: metallurgical coal, iron ore, copper and oil. In all, they account for 96% of its earnings. Prices of these commodities have declined in the past few months, mainly due to slowing growth in China, Japan and Europe. In response, the company is laying off workers and making its main properties more productive....

BHP BILLITON LTD. ADRs $55 (New York symbol BHP; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; ADRs outstanding: 1.6 billion; Market cap: $88.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.2; Dividend yield: 4.5%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.bhpbilliton.com) still plans to spin off its aluminum, manganese, nickel and silver operations, as well as some coal mines, into a separate company in the first half of 2015.

After the spinoff, BHP will focus on four main commodities: metallurgical coal, iron ore, copper and oil. In all, they account for 96% of its earnings.

Prices of these commodities have declined in the past few months, mainly due to slowing growth in China, Japan and Europe. In response, the company is laying off workers and making its main properties more productive.

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BOMBARDIER INC., Toronto symbols BBD.A $3.77 and BBD.B, $3.71, reported better-than-expected quarterly results this week. Without costs related to its recent restructuring, which included laying off 2% of its workforce, Bombardier’s earnings rose 34.5% in the quarter ended September 30, 2014, to $222 million, or $0.12 a share (all amounts except share prices in U.S. dollars). That beat the consensus estimate of $0.10 a share. A year earlier, the company earned $165 million, or $0.09 a share. Overall revenue gained 20.9%, $4.9 billion from $4.1 billion, also beating the consensus forecast of $4.82 billion....

EBAY INC., $47.95, Nasdaq symbol EBAY, reported better-than-expected third quarter earnings, but its revenue missed the consensus estimate. It also lowered its earnings and revenue outlook for the current quarter. That caused the stock to fall 8% this week. In the three months ended September 30, 2014, eBay earned $848 million, up 1.3% from $837 million a year earlier. Per-share earnings rose 6.3%, to $0.68 from $0.64, on fewer shares outstanding. That beat the consensus estimate of $0.67. Revenue rose 11.8%, to $4.35 billion from $3.9 billion, but that missed consensus estimate of $4.37 billion....

EBAY INC., $54.44, Nasdaq symbol EBAY, plans to spin off its PayPal subsidiary as a separate company. This business processes online transactions, including purchases made through eBay’s auction websites. In the past few years, PayPal has expanded into retail stores and payments through smartphones. It accounts for about 40% of eBay’s revenue. eBay plans to hand out PayPal shares as a special dividend in the second half of 2015. Investors are not liable for capital gains taxes until they sell their new shares....

I can say without reservation that, in investing, spinoffs are the closest thing you can find to a sure thing. It all comes down to the incentives. In spinoffs, the incentives work in your favour. This is easier to understand if you contrast spinoffs to one of the least desirable investments, new stock issues, where the incentives all work against you. New issues (also known as Initial Public Offerings or IPOs) come to market when it’s a good time for the company or its insiders to sell. That’s not necessarily—and often isn’t—a good time for you to buy. In addition, the underwriting brokerage firms try to spark investor interest in the new issue. They hire public relations firms to get the media interested. They also pay extra commission (double or more the regular rates) to spur their salespeople to sell the new issue....

One of the ways a company can try to unlock its own hidden value is by creating a separate company out of a subsidiary. The parent company can either sell stock in the new company to the public, or spin it off—hand the stock out to its own investors. In the past few years, it has become common to do both. The parent company starts by selling a portion of the new company to the public, to establish a market and a following among investors. That way, by the time of the spin-off, stock in the new company may be liquid enough to be sold relatively easily, or retained with some confidence as a worthwhile investment. In our experience, and in most academic studies of the subject, this helps the parent and the spin-off. Both generally do better than comparable companies for at least several years after the spin-off takes place....

The Guggenheim Spin-off ETF, $46.50, symbol CSD on New York (Units outstanding: 13.3 million; Market cap: $618.5 million; www.guggenheiminvestments.com), aims to track the Beacon Spin-off Index. The ETF’s MER is 0.65%. The Beacon Spin-off Index consists of 34 stocks. Companies can be included if they have been spun off in the past 30 months. There are no limitations on market capitalization (or the total value of a company’s outstanding shares), but companies in the index are mainly small- and mid-caps with capitalizations under $10 billion. Beacon defines a spinoff as any firm resulting from either of the following events: a parent company’s distribution of shares in a subsidiary to its own shareholders or “partial initial public offerings,” in which a parent company sells a percentage of a subsidiary’s shares to the general public....