Pat McKeough

A professional investment analyst for more than 30 years, Pat has developed a stock-selection technique that has proven reliable in both bull and bear markets. His proprietary ValuVesting System™ focuses on stocks that provide exceptional quality at relatively low prices. Many savvy investors and industry leaders consider it the most powerful stock-picking method ever created.

As early as 1980, Pat was recognized as #1 in the world of published investment advice by the Washington, DC–based Newsletter Publishers Association, and he was the first multi-year winner of The Globe and Mail’s stock picking contest.

Both CBS MarketWatch and The Hulbert Financial Digest recognized Pat as one of North America’s top stock analysts. The Wall Street Journal called him “one of only four investment newsletter advisors who have managed to serve their readers well over the long haul.”

A best-selling Canadian author, he wrote Riding the Bull, his 1993 book that predicted the stock-market boom of the last half of that decade. Through his many television appearances, he is well-known to investors for his insightful analysis and his candid, unpretentious style.

Bottom line: Pat’s conservative, reduced-risk strategy is a proven approach to safe investing.

Posts by the author
The pendulum theory grew out of Sir Isaac Newton’s 17th-century studies of gravity and physics, particularly his second law of motion. Yet the theory turns up in discussions of all sorts of non-mechanical topics. This includes investors’ efforts at understanding the stock market.
VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS ETF $34.00 (New York symbol VWO; buy or sell through brokers) aims to track the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) Emerging Index. It’s made up of the common stock of companies in developing countries. The fund’s MER is just 0.15%. The top holdings of Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets include Taiwan Semiconductor (Taiwan: computer chips), Tencent Holdings (China: Internet), China Mobile, China Construction Bank, Naspers Ltd. (South Africa: media), Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Hon Hai Precision Industry (Taiwan: electronics), Infosys (India: information technology) and Housing Development Finance (India: banking). The breakdown by country for this $45.1 billion fund is as follows: China, 27.3%; Taiwan, 15.9%; India, 12.0%; South Africa, 8.1%; Brazil, 6.7%; Mexico, 5.5%; Malaysia, 4.6%; Russia, 4.3%; Thailand, 3.0%; Indonesia, 3.0%; Philippines, 2.0%; Poland, 1.5%; Turkey, 1.8%; and others, 5.8%....
CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY $170.25 (Toronto symbol CP; Shares outstanding: 153.0 million; Market cap: $26.3 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; Dividend yield: 0.8%; www.cpr.ca) has agreed to sell a parcel of land—the Arbutus Corridor—to the City of Vancouver. Canadian Pacific stopped running trains through the Arbutus Corridor in 2001. Since then, the company has considered several options to re-develop the property. These included building a facility to store railcars. The municipal government opposed those plans. The sale price of $55 million is small next to the $1.6 billion, or $10.10 a share, that CP earned in 2015. But the deal also gives the company additional payments linked to future development of the property....
ARC RESOURCES $18.38 (Toronto symbol ARX; Shares outstanding: 348.3 million; Market cap: $6.2 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative; Dividend yield: 3.3%; www.arcresources.com) produces oil and natural gas in Western Canada. Its average daily output of 119,243 barrels of oil equivalent is 66% gas and 34% oil. In the three months ended December 31, 2015, ARC’s cash flow per share dropped 26.6%, to $0.58 from $0.79 a year earlier. Production increased 1.1%, but its realized oil price fell 32.1%. Gas prices declined 37.6%. Like many oil and gas producers, ARC is cutting exploration and development spending. In 2016, it will devote $390.0 million to this purpose. That’s down 29.1% from $550.0 in 2015....
CRESCENT POINT ENERGY $17.64 (Toronto symbol CPG; Shares outstanding: 504.9 million; Market cap: $8.7 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk; Dividend y ield: 2.0%; www.crescentpointenergy.com) produces oil and natural gas in Western Canada, with a focus on its Bakken light oil development in southeastern Saskatchewan. Its output is 90% oil and 10% gas. In the three months ended December 31, 2015, Crescent Point’s cash flow fell 13.3%, to $496.7 million from $572.8 million a year earlier. The company raised its daily output by 14.5%, but lower oil and gas prices offset that increase. Cash flow per share dropped 23.4%, to $0.98 from $1.28, because Crescent Point issued shares to pay for acquisitions. They include the $1.5 billion the company paid for Legacy Oil + Gas in June 2015....
PENGROWTH ENERGY $1.54 (Toronto symbol PGF; Shares outstanding: 543.0 million; Market cap: $792.8 million; TSINetwork Rating: Average; No dividends paid; www.pengrowth.com) has moved up on news that prominent Toronto investor Seymour Schulich now owns 14.7% of the company’s shares. That makes him Pengrowth’s largest shareholder. Schulich has a long history of investing in small oil and mining firms. These include a 27.6% stake in Birchcliff Resources (Toronto symbol BIR). Birchcliff is a recommendation of Stock Pickers Digest, our newsletter that focuses on aggressive investments. Schulich’s involvement is likely a plus for Pengrowth. But its shares will need stronger oil prices in order to move higher....
ISHARES CANADIAN SHORT-TERM BOND INDEX ETF $28.47 (Toronto symbol XSB; buy or sell through brokers) mirrors the performance of the DEX Short-Term Bond Index. This index consists of a range of investment-grade federal, provincial, municipal and corporate bonds with one- to five-year terms to maturity. The fund holds 437 bonds with an average term to maturity of 2.94 years. The bonds in the index are 65.0% government and 35.0% corporate. The fund’s MER is 0.28%. The iShares Canadian Short-Term Bond Index Fund yields 2.4%, but this high yield is due to the fact that some of the fund’s bonds pay above-market interest rates. As a result, they trade above their face value. When these bonds mature, holders will only get the bonds’ face value, meaning the portfolio will incur predictable capital losses. These losses will offset some of the appeal of the above-market yields....
ISHARES CANADIAN UNIVERSE BOND INDEX ETF $31.87 (Toronto symbol XBB; buy or sell through brokers) mirrors the performance of the Canadian Universe Bond Index. The 957 bonds in the portfolio have an average term to maturity of 10.26 years. The fund’s MER is 0.33%. The bonds in the index are 72.0% government and 28.0% corporate. The fund yields 2.8%, compared to the Short-Term Bond Fund’s 2.4%. Its yield to maturity is 1.96%, 0.75 percentage points above the Short-Term Fund. That reflects the added risk of long-term bonds....
PENN WEST $1.17 (Toronto symbol PWT; Shs. o/s: 502.2 million; Market cap: $582.5 million; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative; No dividends paid; www.pennwest.com) has sold oilproducing properties worth over $1 billion since the start of 2015. Even so, its debt is still a very high $1.9 billion, or 3.3 times its market cap. In the three months ended December 31, 2015, Penn West’s production fell 20.3%, to an average of 77,398 barrels per day from 97,143. Cash flow per share fell sharply, to just $7.0 million, or $0.01 a share, from $137.0 million, or $0.28 a share. Penn West may still need to sell more assets to meet scheduled debt repayments. But without significantly higher oil and gas prices, those sales will further cut its already low cash flow....
RIOCAN REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST $26.68 (Toronto symbol REI.UN; Units outstanding: 321.9 million; Market cap: $8.7 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Average; Dividend yield: 5.2%; www.riocan.com) owns all or part of 305 shopping centres in Canada, including 16 properties under development. The trust pays monthly distributions of $0.1175 a unit, for a 5.2% annual yield. These payouts accounted for 90.4% of RioCan’s cash flow in 2015. However, 31.5% of the trust’s investors take part in its distribution reinvestment plan, so they get units rather than cash. On this basis, RioCan’s cash payouts were a more reasonable 62.0% of its cash flow. (If you want the units instead of cash, you still have to pay income taxes on your distributions for the year when you receive them.) This week, RioCan announced that with the April 2016 distribution, it eliminated the 3.1% discount it offered to unitholders who reinvested their distributions....