Pat McKeough

A professional investment analyst for more than 30 years, Pat has developed a stock-selection technique that has proven reliable in both bull and bear markets. His proprietary ValuVesting System™ focuses on stocks that provide exceptional quality at relatively low prices. Many savvy investors and industry leaders consider it the most powerful stock-picking method ever created.

As early as 1980, Pat was recognized as #1 in the world of published investment advice by the Washington, DC–based Newsletter Publishers Association, and he was the first multi-year winner of The Globe and Mail’s stock picking contest.

Both CBS MarketWatch and The Hulbert Financial Digest recognized Pat as one of North America’s top stock analysts. The Wall Street Journal called him “one of only four investment newsletter advisors who have managed to serve their readers well over the long haul.”

A best-selling Canadian author, he wrote Riding the Bull, his 1993 book that predicted the stock-market boom of the last half of that decade. Through his many television appearances, he is well-known to investors for his insightful analysis and his candid, unpretentious style.

Bottom line: Pat’s conservative, reduced-risk strategy is a proven approach to safe investing.

Posts by the author
The pendulum theory grew out of Sir Isaac Newton’s 17th-century studies of gravity and physics, particularly his second law of motion. Yet the theory turns up in discussions of all sorts of non-mechanical topics. This includes investors’ efforts at understanding the stock market.
APACHE CORP. $50 (New York symbol APA; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 378.3 million; Market cap: $18.9 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 3.0; Dividend yield: 2.0%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.apachecorp.com) continues to sell overseas properties to focus on its less-risky onshore oil and gas operations here in North America. As a result, its production in 2015 fell 9.9%, to 486,775 barrels a day from 540,212 in 2014. Due to lower oil and gas prices, it lost $130 million, or $0.34 a share, in 2015 compared to a profit of $2.0 billion, or $5.21. The company plans to spend $1.4 billion to $1.8 billion on capital projects in 2016, down from $4.7 billion in 2015. That should let it continue to pay quarterly dividends of $0.25 a share, for an annualized yield of 2.0%. In 2015, dividend payments totaled $377 million....
DIAGEO PLC ADRs $107 (New York symbol DEO; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; ADRs outstanding: 630.0 million; Market cap: $67.4 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 4.4; Dividend yield: 3.2%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.diageo.com) is the world’s largest premium alcoholic beverage company. Its major brands include Guinness stout, Smirnoff vodka, Johnnie Walker whisky and Captain Morgan rum. Diageo recently sold its wine operations in Australia and its Jamaican brewing operations. That freed up cash it can use to expand its main spirits businesses. They include its upcoming deal to buy Australian whisky maker Starward. In the six months ended December 31, 2015, Diageo’s sales fell 5.0% to 5.6 billion pounds from 5.9 billion a year earlier (1 pound=$1.85 Canadian). If you exclude the brands that Diageo recently sold and the negative impact of currency exchange rates, sales gained 1.8%. Earnings per ADR fell 4.7%, to 2.05 pounds from 2.15. (Each American Depositary Receipt represents four common shares.)...
MOLSON COORS BREWING CO. $95 (New York symbol TAP; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 214.4 million; Market cap: $20.4 billion; Price-tosales ratio: 5.6; Dividend yield: 1.7%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.molsoncoors.com) is buying the 58% stake of MillerCoors it doesn’t already own. This business took its current form in 2008 when Molson and SABMiller combined their U.S. brewing operations. SABMiller is now merging with rival Anheuser- Busch InBev to create the world’s largest brewer. To satisfy competition regulators, SABMiller will sell its stake in MillerCoors to Molson for $12.0 billion. Paying for this business will add to Molson’s longterm debt of $2.9 billion, which is equal to 14% of its market cap. However, the deal will add $4.7 billion to its annual revenue. It totaled $3.6 billion in 2015....
QUAKER CHEMICAL CORP. $85 (New York symbol KWR; Income Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 13.2 million; Market cap: $1.1 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.5; Dividend yield: 1.5%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.quakerchem.com) make lubricants that keep mechanical parts from rusting. Sales in 2015 fell 3.7%, to $737.6 million from $765.9 million in 2014. That’s mainly due to unfavourable exchange rates and lower demand from steel producers. However, a cost-cutting plan lifted its earnings per share by 4.0%, to $4.43 from $4.26. Quaker needs oil to make its products, so lower crude prices are cutting its costs. Its earnings should improve to $4.58 a share in 2016. The stock trades at a reasonable 18.6 times that forecast....
HP INC. $12 (New York symbol HPQ; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 1.7 billion; Market cap: $20.4 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.2; Dividend yield: 4.2%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.hp.com) earned $645 million in its fiscal 2016 first quarter, which ended January 31, 2016. That’s down 15.7% from $765 million a year earlier. Earnings per share fell 12.2%, to $0.36 from $0.41, on fewer shares outstanding. Sales declined 11.6%, to $12.2 billion from $13.9 billion. Personal computer sales (62% of the total) fell 12.8%. Weak demand for new machines forced HP to cut its selling prices. Sales of printers (38%) dropped 17.0%. HP holds cash of $3.7 billion, or $2.12 a share. Its long-term debt of $6.7 billion is a manageable 33% of its market cap....
HEWLETT-PACKARD ENTERPRISE CO. $18 (New York symbol HPE; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 1.7 billion; Market cap: $30.6 billion; Priceto- sales ratio: 0.6; Dividend yield: 1.2%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.hpe.com) sells computer servers and analytics software to businesses. It saw its earnings fall 14.9% in the quarter ended January 31, 2016, to $731 million from $859 million a year earlier. Per-share earnings declined 12.8%, to $0.41 from $0.47 on fewer shares outstanding. Revenue dipped 2.5%, to $12.7 billion from $13.1 billion. However, excluding currency rates, revenue rose 4%. The company’s long-term debt of $15.2 billion is a high 50% of its market cap. It also holds cash of $8.5 billion, or $4.91 a share. This new firm is in a strong position to profit as more businesses expand their e-commerce activities and buy cloud-based data storage services. The stock trades at 9.6 times the $1.88 a share it will probably earn in 2016. That low p/e reflects uncertainty over the growth of business spending on new technology this year. The $0.22 dividend yields 1.2%....
ADOBE SYSTEMS INC. $93 (Nasdaq symbol ADBE; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 497.8 million; Market cap: $46.3 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 9.6; No dividends paid since June 2005; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.adobe.com) continues to see strong demand for its subscription services, particularly the Creative Cloud package of photoediting and desktop-publishing programs. In the quarter ended February 29, 2016, the company added 798,000 Creative Cloud subscribers (net of cancellations). This service now has around 7 million users. However, the stock trades at an expensive 33.2 times the $2.80 a share Adobe will likely earn in the year ending November 30, 2016. Moreover, Adobe gets 40% of its revenue from outside the U.S., and the high U.S. dollar is hurting the contribution of its overseas businesses. Adobe is still a hold.
GENERAL MILLS INC. $61 (New York symbol GIS, Conservative Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 593.4 million; Market cap: $36.2 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.1; Dividend yield: 3.0%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.generalmills.com) plans to change the labels on its packaged food products to indicate if they contain genetically modified organisms (GMOs). That’s mainly to comply with new GMO-labelling rules in Vermont. They take effect in July 2016. The change will also help the company prepare for the likelihood of new national labelling standards. General Mills is currently phasing out GMO versions of oats in its cereals. However, it will continue to use GMO crops for other products. That’s because they use corn and wheat, and finding sufficient supplies of non-GMO versions would be difficult....
SYMANTEC CORP. $19 (Nasdaq symbol SYMC; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 652.2 million; Market cap: $12.4 billion; Priceto- sales ratio: 2.0; Dividend yield: 1.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.symantec.com) has launched a new service that aims to improve the security of Internet websites. Called “Encryption Everywhere,” this software makes it easier for web hosting firms to embed encryption when they create new websites. This will help protect users from cybercriminals and online intruders. Symantec is giving away this software for free. It feels this approach will encourage hosting firms to adopt the technology and eventually buy more security services and software. Just 3% of the world’s websites use encryption technology, so there’s plenty of room to grow. Symantec is a buy.