Pat McKeough

A professional investment analyst for more than 30 years, Pat has developed a stock-selection technique that has proven reliable in both bull and bear markets. His proprietary ValuVesting System™ focuses on stocks that provide exceptional quality at relatively low prices. Many savvy investors and industry leaders consider it the most powerful stock-picking method ever created.

As early as 1980, Pat was recognized as #1 in the world of published investment advice by the Washington, DC–based Newsletter Publishers Association, and he was the first multi-year winner of The Globe and Mail’s stock picking contest.

Both CBS MarketWatch and The Hulbert Financial Digest recognized Pat as one of North America’s top stock analysts. The Wall Street Journal called him “one of only four investment newsletter advisors who have managed to serve their readers well over the long haul.”

A best-selling Canadian author, he wrote Riding the Bull, his 1993 book that predicted the stock-market boom of the last half of that decade. Through his many television appearances, he is well-known to investors for his insightful analysis and his candid, unpretentious style.

Bottom line: Pat’s conservative, reduced-risk strategy is a proven approach to safe investing.

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What does a diversified portfolio look like? A well-diversified portfolio balances risk by spreading investment holdings out by industry sector and other factors
SHERWIN-WILLIAMS CO. $276 (New York symbol SHW; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 93.1 million; Market cap: $25.7 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.3; Dividend yield: 1.0%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.sherwin-williams.com) reported $3.15 billion of sales in the three months ended September 30, 2015, unchanged from a year earlier. Consumers bought more paint, offsetting lower sales to industrial clients and weakness in Latin America. Excluding exchange rates, sales gained 3.7%.

Earnings rose 14.8%, to $374.5 million from $326.2 million. Per-share profits gained 18.5%, to $3.97 from $3.35, on fewer shares outstanding. For all of 2015, the company expects to earn $10.75 to $11.00 a share. However, the stock is expensive at 25.4 times the midpoint of that range.

Sherwin-Williams is a hold.

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MONSANTO CO. $96 (New York symbol MON, Aggressive Growth Portfolio; Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 439.8 million; Market cap: $42.2 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.8; Dividend yield: 2.3%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.monsanto.com) plans to cut 12% of its workforce over the next two years. That’s because low prices for corn, soybeans and wheat are prompting farmers to buy fewer of its genetically modified seeds and other agricultural products.

The company now expects the cuts to save it $500 million annually by fiscal 2018 (fiscal years end August 31), up from its earlier target of $300 million. Monsanto earned $2.8 billion, or $5.73 a share, in fiscal 2015.

Monsanto is still a buy.

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KEYSIGHT TECHNOLOGIES INC. $31 (New York symbol KEYS; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 170.0 million; Market cap: $5.3 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.8; No dividends paid; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.keysight.com) reported a 2.6% revenue decline in its 2015 fiscal year, which ended October 31, 2015, to $2.86 billion from $2.93 billion in 2014. Excluding exchange rates, revenue rose 1%.

Before unusual items, earnings fell 15.0%, to $432 million from $508 million. Due to more shares outstanding, per-share earnings fell 17.1%, to $2.52 from $3.04. That’s partly because Keysight raised its research spending by 7.2%, to $387 million (or 13.6% of revenue) from $361 million (or 12.3%).

The company aims to shift away from manufacturing testing equipment for electronic devices to more profitable businesses like software and services. However, its short-term outlook is weak, which is why the stock trades at just 12.0 times the $2.59 a share Keysight will probably earn in fiscal 2016.

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SNAP-ON INC. $171 (New York symbol SNA; Conservative Growth and Income Portfolios, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 58.1 million; Market cap: $9.9 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.7; Dividend yield: 1.4%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.snapon.com) makes tools for auto mechanics and sells them through a fleet of franchised vans that visit garages. It also makes specialized tools for industrial customers.

Snap-On continues to expand beyond the U.S., which supplies 65% of its revenue. In August 2015, it paid $13.1 million for Ecotechnic, an Italian maker of equipment for maintaining vehicle air conditioning systems. The purchase should add roughly $13 million to Snap-On’s annual revenue.

The company is also seeing strong demand for its tools and other products. In the three months ended October 3, 2015, its revenue gained 1.9%, to $821.5 million from $806.3 million a year earlier. Excluding exchange rates and acquisitions, sales gained 7.3%. Earnings per share rose 12.5%, to $1.98 from $1.76.

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GENUINE PARTS CO. $91 (New York symbol GPC; Conservative Growth and Income Portfolios, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 150.8 million; Market cap: $13.7 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.9; Dividend yield: 2.7%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.genpt.com) gets about half of its sales and earnings by selling replacement auto parts. The company operates 1,100 outlets under the NAPA banner, and its distribution business serves 4,900 independent stores in North America, Australia and New Zealand.

Genuine also distributes industrial parts, office products and electrical equipment. It gets 80% of its revenue from the U.S.

The company recently agreed to buy Covs Parts, an auto-parts distributor in Western Australia.

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ARCHER DANIELS MIDLAND CO. $36 (New York symbol ADM; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 596.7 million; Market cap: $21.5 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.3; Dividend yield: 3.1%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.adm.com) processes corn, wheat, soybeans, canola, flax seed, peanuts and other crops into a variety of food ingredients, such as flour, oils and sweeteners. It’s also the largest maker of ethanol from corn in the U.S.

In the three months ended September 30, 2015, Archer’s earnings fell 66.3%, to $252 million from $747 million a year earlier. It spent $1.8 billion on share buybacks in the first nine months of 2015, so per-share profits declined 64.0%, to $0.41 from $1.14, on fewer shares outstanding.

Without unusual items, mainly gains on asset sales, earnings per share fell 30.2%, to $0.60 from $0.86. Revenue declined 8.6%, to $16.6 billion from $18.1 billion. International markets supply half of the company’s revenue, so the high U.S. dollar hurts the contribution from its overseas operations. Record crop harvests have also depressed prices and profits at its grain-trading business.

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NORDSTROM INC. $58 (New York symbol JWN; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 185.4 million; Market cap: $10.8 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.7; Dividend yield: 2.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.nordstrom.com) is down 30% from its peak of $83 in March 2015. The company is seeing slowing sales, and it’s investing in new websites and stores in Canada. That’s squeezing its profit margins.

In its fiscal 2016 third quarter, which ended October 31, 2015, sales rose 6.5%, to $3.2 billion from $3.0 billion a year earlier. Same-store sales rose 0.9%, well below the consensus forecast of a 3.6% gain. Earnings fell 21.9%, to $0.57 a share from $0.73.

Nordstrom now expects same-store sales growth of 2.5% to 3.0% for all of fiscal 2016, down from its earlier forecast of 3.5% to 4.5%. It also cut its full-year earnings outlook to $3.35 a share from $3.75. The stock trades at 17.3 times the new estimate. That’s a reasonable multiple, as the company’s margins should improve once its new investments begin contributing to its profits.

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TUPPERWARE BRANDS CORP. $58 (New York symbol TUP; Conservative Growth and Income Portfolios, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 50.4 million; Market cap: $2.9 billion; Priceto- sales ratio: 1.2; Dividend yield: 4.7%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.tupperwarebrands.com) makes household goods, mainly plastic food and beverage containers, as well as cosmetics and fragrances.

In the three months ended September 26, 2015, Tupperware’s sales fell 11.5%, to $521.0 million from $588.7 million a year earlier. Overseas markets supplied 73% of Tupperware’s sales, so if you exclude the negative impact of the high U.S. dollar, sales rose 7%. Earnings declined 12.2%, to $0.79 a share from $0.90.

For all of 2015, the company expects its sales to rise 4% to 5%, along with earnings of $4.39 to $4.44 a share, excluding exchange rates. The stock trades at 13.1 times the midpoint of that range, which is reasonable in light of Tupperware’s large international operations. The $2.72 dividend seems safe and yields 4.7%.

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NVIDIA CORP. $31 (Nasdaq symbol NVDA; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 538.0 million; Market cap: $16.7 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 3.5; Dividend yield: 1.5%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.nvidia.com) is a leading designer of 3D-capable video chips, which make video games run more smoothly and appear more lifelike.

Nvidia aims to cut its reliance on personal computers and smartphones by focusing on chips for games, high-definition TVs, cars and cloud computing. As part of this plan, it hoped to sell its Icera subsidiary, which designs mobile-phone chips. However, it was unable to find a buyer, so it now plans to wind down Icera in the next few months.

If you exclude a writedown of Icera and other unusual items, Nvidia earned $255 million in its fiscal 2016 third quarter, which ended October 25, 2015, up 15.9% from $220 million a year earlier. Per-share profits rose 17.9%, to $0.46 from $0.39, on fewer shares outstanding. Revenue gained 6.5%, to $1.3 billion from $1.2 billion.

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