Pat McKeough

A professional investment analyst for more than 30 years, Pat has developed a stock-selection technique that has proven reliable in both bull and bear markets. His proprietary ValuVesting System™ focuses on stocks that provide exceptional quality at relatively low prices. Many savvy investors and industry leaders consider it the most powerful stock-picking method ever created.

As early as 1980, Pat was recognized as #1 in the world of published investment advice by the Washington, DC–based Newsletter Publishers Association, and he was the first multi-year winner of The Globe and Mail’s stock picking contest.

Both CBS MarketWatch and The Hulbert Financial Digest recognized Pat as one of North America’s top stock analysts. The Wall Street Journal called him “one of only four investment newsletter advisors who have managed to serve their readers well over the long haul.”

A best-selling Canadian author, he wrote Riding the Bull, his 1993 book that predicted the stock-market boom of the last half of that decade. Through his many television appearances, he is well-known to investors for his insightful analysis and his candid, unpretentious style.

Bottom line: Pat’s conservative, reduced-risk strategy is a proven approach to safe investing.

Posts by the author
ENCANA CORP. $9.45 (Toronto symbol ECA; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 842.5 million; Market cap: $8.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.2; Dividend yield: 3.8%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.encana.com) continues to sell less important properties as it narrows its focus on four higher-margin projects: Montney (B.C.), Duvernay (Alberta) and Eagle Ford and Permian (Texas).

These sales cut its daily output by 21.0% in the three months ended June 30, 2015, to 388,700 barrels a day (67% gas, 33% oil and natural gas liquids) from 491,800 a year earlier. As well, the company’s realized gas prices, which include the benefit of hedging contracts, fell 13.7%, while oil prices dropped 37.0%.

As a result, Encana lost $167 million, or $0.20 a share (all amounts except share price and market cap in U.S. dollars). A year earlier, it earned $171 million, or $0.23. Cash flow per share dropped 75.3%, to $0.22 from $0.89, while revenue declined 47.7%, to $830 million from $1.6 billion.

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Successful expansion in Ireland is just one reason Great-West Lifeco gets our nod as one of Canada’s top financial blue chip stocks.
CENOVUS ENERGY INC. $19 (Toronto symbol CVE; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 833.2 million; Market cap: $15.8 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.0; Dividend yield: 3.4%; TSINetwork Rating: Average) gets 35% of its revenue from its Western Canadian oil sands properties and conventional oil and gas wells. Chief among these assets are its 50%-owned Christina Lake and Foster Creek oil sands projects; ConocoPhilips (New York symbol COP) owns the remaining 50%.

Refining supplies the remaining 65% of Cenovus’s revenue. The company ships its oil to its 50%-owned refineries in Illinois and Texas. Phillips 66 (New York symbol PSX) owns the other 50% of these operations. Cenovus’s refineries help cut its exposure to falling oil prices, as cheaper crude lowers their operating costs.

Cenovus still plans to spend $1.8 billion to $2.0 billion on expansions and upgrades in 2015, unchanged from its previous estimate. These projects should add 50,000 barrels a day to its production by the end of 2016.

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SUNCOR ENERGY INC. $37 (Toronto symbol SU; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 1.4 billion; Market cap: $51.8 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.6; Dividend yield: 3.1%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.suncor.com) gets 80% of its crude production from its huge Alberta oil sands projects. The remaining 20% comes from traditional oil and gas wells.

Lower oil and gas prices cut these properties’ contribution to just 39% of Suncor’s revenue and 31% of its earnings in the three months ended June 30, 2015.

However, low oil prices are a plus for Suncor’s four refineries and 1,500 Petro-Canada gas stations. As a result, these businesses supplied 61% of revenue and 69% of earnings.

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SNC-LAVALIN GROUP INC. $40 (Toronto symbol SNC; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 150.6 million; Market cap: $6.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.6; Dividend yield: 2.5%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.snclavalin.com) earned $26.5 million in the second quarter of 2015, down 17.3% from $32.1 million a year earlier. Earnings per share declined 19.0%, to $0.17 from $0.21, on fewer shares outstanding.

The drop was largely because SNC ran into unstable soil while building a mass-transit project, which increased its costs. Expenses at a separate highway project were also higher than expected, further hurting its earnings.

However, revenue jumped 32.7%, to $2.25 billion from $1.7 billion, thanks to U.K.-based Kentz, which SNC bought in August 2014. Kentz provides engineering and construction services to the oil and gas industry and now supplies a third of SNC’s revenue.

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POWER CORP. $31.00 (Toronto symbol POW; Shares outstanding: 414.0 million; Market cap: $14.4 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; Dividend yield: 4.0%; www.powercorporation.com) is a diversified holding company. It holds its financial assets through 65.7%-owned Power Financial.

These financial assets include 69.5% of Great-West Lifeco, one of Canada’s largest life insurers, and 58.7% of IGM Financial, a leading Canadian mutual fund provider.

As well, Power Financial owns 50% of holding company Parjointco, which holds a 55.5% stake in Switzerland-listed Pargesa Holdings SA. Pargesa has 95% of its assets in five large European firms. Power Corp. also has interests in Asia.

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PEYTO EXPLORATION & DEVELOPMENT CORP. $27.59 (Toronto symbol PEY; Shares outstanding: 159.0 million; Market cap: $4.5 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk; Dividend yield: 4.8%; www.peyto.com) produces and explores for oil and natural gas in Alberta. Its average daily production of 81,588 barrels of oil equivalent is 91% gas and 9% oil.

In the three months ended March 31, 2015, Peyto’s cash flow fell 10.5%, to $0.94 a share from $1.05 a year ago. It raised its production by 13.0%, but that was offset by lower gas prices.

Like Bonavista, Peyto is cutting its spending this year. Its outlays will now total $560 million to $600 million, down from $690 million in 2014.

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BONAVISTA ENERGY $4.63 (Toronto symbol BNP; Shares outstanding: 206.6 million; Market cap: $1.1 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk; Dividend yield: 9.1%; www.bonavistaenergy.com) explores for oil and natural gas in Alberta, Saskatchewan and B.C. Its output is 75% gas and 25% oil.

In the three months ended June 30, 2015, Bonavista’s cash flow per share fell 34.3%, to $0.44 from $0.67 a year earlier.

Most of that drop came from lower oil and natural gas prices; the company’s output fell only slightly, to 73,736 barrels of oil equivalent a day from 74,273 barrels.

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ISHARES CDN REIT SECTOR INDEX FUND $15.79 (Toronto symbol XRE; buy or sell through brokers; ca.ishares.com) holds the 15 Canadian real estate investment trusts in the S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index.

iShares CDN REIT’s expenses are 0.60% of its assets. The fund yields 5.1%.

The ETF’s largest holding is RioCan REIT at 20.1%, followed by H&R REIT (14.6%), Smart REIT (7.9%), Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (7.9%), Canadian REIT (7.3%), Allied Properties REIT (6.7%), Cominar REIT (6.5%), Dream Office REIT (6.1%), Boardwalk REIT (5.3%), Granite REIT (4.5%), Artis REIT (4.3%), Dream Global REIT (2.5%), Crombie REIT (2.3%), Pure Industrial REIT (2.1%) and Northern Property REIT (1.6%).

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