A Member of Pat McKeough’s Inner Circle recently asked for his advice on Ontario’s biggest electricity transmission and distribution utility.
Pat likes the firm’s dominant position in the province’s essential electricity infrastructure, strong quarterly earnings growth, consistent dividend growth, and massive tailwinds from a projected 75% electricity demand growth through 2050. However, Pat notes that caution is warranted due to the stock’s current high valuation as well as the risk that increasing capital requirements for grid modernization could lead to funding pressures or potential dilution.
Hydro One Ltd. (Symbol H on Toronto; www.hydroone.com) is Ontario’s largest electricity transmission and distribution utility.
Through its wholly owned Hydro One Inc., the company operates almost all of Ontario’s electricity transmission network. That translates into 30,000 kilometres of high-voltage transmission lines and about 125,000 kilometres of primary low-voltage distribution lines.
Hydro One delivers electricity to about 1.5 million residential and commercial clients across the province. Those customers include large industrial companies and municipal utilities.
The company has three segments:
The Transmission segment accounts for about 92% of Ontario’s transmission capacity. This business is rate-regulated. That means the Ontario Energy Board (OEB), a regulatory body, sets the prices Hydro can charge.
The Distribution business is the largest in Ontario. It, too, is rate-regulated. It earns revenue mainly by charging distribution rates approved by the OEB. Plus, it charges amounts to recover the cost of purchased power.
The Other segment is mostly made up of Hydro’s telecommunications business. It provides support for the company’s transmission and distribution businesses.
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Hydro One recently expanded its transmission ownership in northern Ontario. Specifically, on December 19, 2024, the company said it has agreed to pay the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System (and Enbridge Transmission Holdings Inc.) $257.4 million in cash for a 48% stake in the East-West Tie Ltd. partnership.
East-West Tie Line is a 450-kilometre, 230-kilovolt transmission line, running from Wawa, Ontario, to Thunder Bay, along the north shore of Lake Superior. It connects northwest Ontario communities and industries to Ontario’s electricity grid.
A consortium of six First Nations and affiliates of NextEra Energy Canada LP own the remaining interest in the partnership. The line has an OEB-approved rate base of about $880 million. The rate base is the amount of money that the Partnership has invested in the Line. It’s used to calculate the utility’s allowed rate of return, or profits.
Consistent dividend growth is backed by rising earnings
For the three months ended June 30, 2025, Hydro’s revenue rose 1.7%, to $2.07 billion from $2.03 billion a year earlier. Hydro earned $327 million, or $0.54 a share, in the quarter. That was up 12.0% from $292 million, or $0.49 a share.
Note—the company raised its quarterly dividend by 6.0% with the June 2025 payment, to $0.3331 a share from $0.3142. The stock now yields 2.8%.
Hydro’s shares trade at a relatively high 23.0 times the company’s 2025 earnings estimate of $2.10 a share.
Recommendation in Pat’s Inner Circle: Hydro One Ltd. is okay to hold.