BONAVISTA ENERGY $2.76

BONAVISTA ENERGY $2.76 (Toronto symbol BNP; Shares outstanding: 214.0 million; Market cap: $626.1 million; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk; Dividend yield: 4.4%; www.bonavistaenergy.com) explores for oil and gas in Alberta, Saskatchewan and B.C. Its output is 68% gas and 32% oil. In the quarter ended December 31, 2015, Bonavista’s cash flow per share fell 30.2%, to $0.44 from $0.63 a year earlier. Most of that drop came from lower oil and gas prices, but also because of falling output. It declined 6.9%, to 79,862 barrels of oil equivalent per day from 85,810 barrels. Like many producers, the company will cut its exploration and development. In 2016, it plans to spend $145 million to $190 million. That’s a reduction from Bonavista’s initial announcement of $210 million, which is down from the $283.4 million it spent in 2015. It spent $639.6 million in 2014. The reduced investment will likely cut Bonavista’s production in 2016 to a range of 69,000 to 73,000 barrels per day. The reduction, along with low oil and gas prices, will lower Bonavista’s per-share cash flow to an estimated $1.37 for the current fiscal year. That’s down 22.6% from the $1.77 it reported for 2015. It had cash flow of $2.69 a share in 2014. The stock trades at just 2.0 times this year’s forecast for cash flow per share. That’s very low for a company with strong potential to grow when oil and gas prices recover. However, the $0.01-a-share monthly dividend, which yields a high 4.0%, could be cut if oil and gas prices drop further. Bonavista Energy is a hold.