TRILOGY ENERGY CORP. $28.25 - Toronto symbol TET

TRILOGY ENERGY CORP. $28.25 (Toronto symbol TET; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (403-290- 2900; www.trilogy.com; Shares outstanding: 116.5 million; Market cap: $3.3 billion; Dividend yield: 1.5%) owns oil and gas properties in the Kaybob and Grande Prairie areas of central Alberta. About 62% of Trilogy’s production is natural gas. The remaining 38% is oil. In the three months ended September 30, 2012, Trilogy produced 33,412 barrels of oil equivalent per day (including gas). That’s up 15.1% from 29,035 barrels a year earlier. But even with the higher production, a 40.1% decline in gas prices pushed down the company’s cash flow per share by 21.6%, to $0.40 from $0.51. Trilogy pays out just 26% of its cash flow as dividends. That gives it a low 1.5% yield, but it’s also letting the company maintain an active drilling program. In the first three quarters of 2012, Trilogy spent $274 million on exploration and development, up 10.5% from $248 million in the same period a year earlier. The company drilled 55 wells, up 25.0% from 44. Trilogy is now producing about 38,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. In 2013, it plans to spend $350 million on exploration and development. That could push its output as high as 42,000 barrels per day. The company’s long-term debt is $573.0 million, or a low 17.4% of its market cap. Trilogy is forecast to report cash flow of $3.10 a share in 2013. The stock trades at 9.1 times that estimate. Trilogy Energy is a hold.

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