Growth Stocks

Although growth stock picks can be highly volatile, they can make good long-term investments. They may be well-known stars or quiet gems, but they do share one common attribute—they are growing at a higher-than-average rate within their industry, or within the market as a whole, and could keep growing for years or decades.

And keep in mind that we focus on growth stocks, which have a good long-term history and favourable prospects. We downplay momentum stocks that tend to attract many investors simply because they are moving faster than the market averages, but are liable to fall sharply when their momentum fades.

There’s room for growth stock investing in your portfolio, but make sure you follow our TSI Network three-part Successful Investor strategy for your overall portfolio:

  1. Invest mainly in well-established companies;
  2. Spread your money out across most if not all of the five main economic sectors (Manufacturing & Industry; Resources & Commodities; Consumer; Finance; Utilities);
  3. Downplay or avoid stocks in the broker/media limelight.

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CHEVRON CORP. $108 (New York symbol CVX; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Resources sector; Shares outstanding: 2.0 billion; Market cap: $216.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.9; Dividend yield: 3.0%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.chevron.com) recently announced that it had discovered promising new gas wells off the northwest coast of Australia. This was its 13th discovery in the area since 2009.

These discoveries enhance the prospects of Chevron’s Gorgon liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Australia. Gorgon will convert gas from these offshore fields into a liquid. The company will then ship the LNG on tankers to customers in Asia.

Chevron owns 47% of Gorgon, and will operate it. The company’s share of the $37-billion development cost is $17.4 billion. Gorgon should start producing in 2014. Chevron expects the Australian wells to last 40 years.

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WELLS FARGO & CO. $30 (New York symbol WFC; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Finance sector; Shares outstanding: 5.3 billion; Market cap: $159.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.0; Dividend yield: 1.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.wellsfargo.com) earned $15.0 billion in 2011. That’s up 29.2% from $11.6 billion in 2010. Earnings per share rose 27.6%, to $2.82 from $2.21, on more shares outstanding. More clients are repaying their loans on time. As a result, loan-loss provisions fell 49.9%, to $7.9 billion from $15.8 billion. This was the main reason for earnings gain.

Revenue fell 5.0%, to $80.9 billion from $85.2 billion. Demand for mortgages and credit cards is rising. However, the bank is getting less interest income from borrowers due to today’s low interest rates.

Wells Fargo is still a hold.

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CEDAR FAIR L.P. $25 (New York symbol FUN; Income Portfolio, Consumer sector; Units outstanding: 55.4 million; Market cap: $1.4 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.4; Dividend yield: 6.4%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.cedarfair.com) had a record 23.4 million visitors at its amusement parks, water parks and hotels in 2011. That’s up 2.6% from 22.8 million in 2010.

As a result, the partnership estimates that its revenue increased 5.4% in 2011, to $1.03 billion from $977.6 million in 2010. Thanks to its improving outlook, the partnership expects to pay distributions of $1.60 a unit in 2012 (for a 6.4% yield). That’s up 60.0% from $1.00 in 2011.

Cedar Fair is a buy.

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FAIR ISAAC CORP. $39 (New York symbol FICO; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 35.7 million; Market cap: $1.4 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.2; Dividend yield: 0.2%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.fico.com) sells products and services that help businesses around the world make better decisions on customer creditworthiness.

Fair Isaac is starting to see the benefits of its recent restructuring plan, which included cutting 9% of its workforce and combining facilities.

In its 2011 fiscal year, which ended September 30, 2011, Fair Isaac’s earnings rose 22.4%, to $80.2 million from $65.6 million in fiscal 2010. The company spent $96.3 million in 2011 on share buybacks. Because of a 9.7% drop in the number of shares outstanding, earnings per share jumped 38.6%, to $2.01 from $1.45. Revenue rose 2.3%, to $619.7 million from $605.6 million. Lower loan demand pushed down sales of credit scores to lenders. However, higher sales of fraud-detection products more than offset this drop.

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BROADRIDGE FINANCIAL SERVICES INC. $24 (New York symbol BR; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Finance sector; Shares outstanding: 124.1 million; Market cap: $3.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.3; Dividend yield: 2.7%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.broadridge.com) serves the investment industry in three areas: investor communications, securities processing and transaction clearing.

In its fiscal 2012 first quarter, Broadridge earned $19 million. That’s up 46.2% from $13 million a year earlier. Earnings per share rose 50.0%, to $0.15 from $0.10, on fewer shares outstanding. Revenue rose 13.1%, to $476.4 million from $421.4 million.

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AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES INC. $44 (New York symbol A; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 348.1 million; Market cap: $15.3 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 2.2; Dividend yield: 0.9%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.agilent.com) makes testing systems that help improve electronic
devices, such as cellphones. It also makes medical and drug-testing equipment.

The company will pay its first-ever quarterly dividend of $0.10 a share in April 2012. The annual rate of $0.40 yields 0.9%.

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DIEBOLD INC. $32 (New York symbol DBD; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 62.6 million; Market cap: $2.0 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.7; Dividend yield: 3.5%; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.diebold.com) makes ATMs, safes, vaults and building security systems.

Diebold spends 3% of its revenue on research. This has helped it develop innovative new products, such as its Opteva Flex Performance ATMs. These models can sort banknotes that customers deposit and then reissue them to other users. This reduces the need to refill these ATMs with fresh bills.

In the third quarter of 2011, Diebold’s revenue fell 5.2%, to $709.3 million from $748.6 million a year earlier. That’s mainly due to lower sales of lottery and voting equipment in Brazil.

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NCR CORP. $18 (New York symbol NCR; Aggressive Growth Portfolio, Manufacturing & Industry sector; Shares outstanding: 157.4 million; Market cap: $2.8 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.5; No dividends paid; TSINetwork Rating: Average; www.ncr.com) is a leading maker of ATMs, checkout scanners, cash registers and self-serve kiosks.

In August 2011, NCR paid $1.2 billion for Radiant Systems Inc., which makes point-of-sale terminals and self-serve kiosks for hotels, restaurants and gas stations. This purchase will cut NCR’s reliance on ATMs, which account for 55% of its overall revenue.

In the quarter ended September 30, 2011, NCR’s revenue rose 16.2%, to $1.4 billion from $1.2 billion. Radiant contributed $36 million to the increase. NCR earned $16 million, or $0.10 a share. That’s down 79.5% from $78 million, or $0.48 a share, a year earlier. Without costs to integrate Radiant, earnings per share rose 15.2%, to $0.53 from $0.46.

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INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES INC. $57 (New York symbol IFF; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 80.9 million; Market cap: $4.6 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 1.7; Dividend yield: 2.2%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.iff.com) aims to make its fragrances division more profitable. This business makes compounds that improve the smells of soaps, detergents and air fresheners.

As part of this plan, IFF will increase its focus on emerging markets. As a result, it will cut 70 employees worldwide. It will pay severance and other costs of $10 million, or $0.08 a share; IFF earned $81.8 million, or $1.00 a share, in the third quarter of 2011. The plan should save it $9 million a year, starting in 2012.

International Flavors & Fragrances is a buy.

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CONAGRA FOODS INC. $27 (New York symbol CAG; Income Portfolio, Consumer sector; Shares outstanding: 412.6 million; Market cap: $11.1 billion; Price-to-sales ratio: 0.9; Dividend yield: 3.6%; TSINetwork Rating: Above Average; www.conagrafoods.com) is paying an undisclosed sum for the Canadian operations of Del Monte Foods. This business makes packaged fruits, fruit snacks and vegetables under the Del Monte brand, as well as canned tomato products under the Aylmer label.

The new operations look like a nice fit with ConAgra’s existing operations in Canada, and will add $150 million to its annual sales of $12.8 billion.

ConAgra is a buy.

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