BONAVISTA ENERGY $15.94 - Toronto symbol BNP

BONAVISTA ENERGY $15.94 (Toronto symbol BNP; Shares outstanding: 179.1 million; Market cap: $2.9 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk; Dividend yield: 5.3%; www.bonavistaenergy.com) explores for oil and gas in Alberta, Saskatchewan and B.C. Its production is 62% gas and 38% oil.

In the three months ended December 31, 2012, cash flow per share fell 37.4%, to $0.57 from $0.91 a year earlier. Gas prices declined by 12.7%, to $3.22 per thousand cubic feet from $3.69. Production dropped 2.1%, to 71,842 barrels of oil equivalent a day (including gas) from 73,373.

Bonavista recently cut its monthly dividend by 41.7%, to $0.07 from $0.12. That’s helping it save cash for exploration and development. The new annual rate of $0.84 a share still yields a high 5.3%. As well, Bonavista now pays out just 36% of its cash flow as dividends, so more cuts are unlikely.

The stock trades at 6.8 times Bonavista’s forecast 2013 cash flow of $2.33 a share. The company’s long-term debt of $889.1 million is a reasonable 30.7% of its $2.9-billion market cap.

Bonavista Energy Corp. is a buy.

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