PENGROWTH ENERGY $4.98 - Toronto symbol PGF

PENGROWTH ENERGY $4.98 (Toronto symbol PGF; Shares outstanding: 512.6 million; Market cap: $2.6 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Average; Dividend yield: 9.6%; www.pengrowth.com) produced 85,748 barrels of oil equivalent a day (60% natural gas and 40% oil) in 2012. That’s up 15.9% from 73,973 barrels in 2011.

The stock is down 47% in the past year. That’s because investors are concerned that low gas prices and Pengrowth’s high debt ($1.8 billion, or 69% of its market cap) will force it to cut its $0.04-a-share monthly dividend, for a 9.6% annualized yield.

However, Pengrowth’s rising oil production will cut its risk. This includes its Lindbergh oil sands project, which is now under construction. Moreover, the company has $4.5 billion of tax pools that it can use to cut its tax bill until 2017.

Pengrowth is still a buy.

A professional investment analyst for more than 30 years, Pat has developed a stock-selection technique that has proven reliable in both bull and bear markets. His proprietary ValuVesting System™ focuses on stocks that provide exceptional quality at relatively low prices. Many savvy investors and industry leaders consider it the most powerful stock-picking method ever created.