Search

Every Monday we feature “A Stock to Sell” as our daily post. With every stock or investment we recommend as a sell, we give you a full explanation of why we advise against investing in it at this time.

Cardiff Energy (symbol CRS on Toronto; www.cardiffenergy.com), is a junior oil and gas exploration firm. It first sold shares to the public and began trading in April 2012.

Cardiff holds interests in 15 producing oil wells, one producing gas well and three shut-in oil wells in the Lincoln County area of central Oklahoma. It also has holdings in other parts of the state, including seven producing oil and gas wells in the Garvin County area and interests in the Buzzard Sand oil property in Osage County.

...

ENERFLEX LTD. $15.48 (Toronto symbol EFX; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk)(403-387-6377; www.enerflex.com; Shares outstanding: 78.6 million; Market cap: $1.2 billion; Dividend yield: 2.2%) rents and sells equipment and services for natural gas production, including compression and processing plants, refrigeration gear and power generators.

On June 30, 2014, Enerflex completed its $431- million U.S. acquisition of two businesses owned by privately held Axip Energy Services LP: an international contract compression and processing subsidiary and a division that provides aftermarket services.

In the quarter ended September 30, 2014, Enerflex’s revenue rose 22.6%, to $479.0 million from $390.7 million a year earlier. Earnings per share jumped 37.5%, to $0.33 from $0.24.

...

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL $703.89 (New York symbol CMG; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (303-595-4000; www.chipotle.com; Shares outstanding: 31.0 million; Market cap: $21.8 billion; No dividends paid) halted sales of pork items at one-third of its nearly 1,800 U.S. restaurants in mid-January 2015. That’s because it learned that a key supplier had failed to meet Chipotle’s humane pig-housing standards.

The company uses pork in around 7% of the burritos, tacos, bowls and salads it sells.

Chipotle believes most customers will simply substitute pork with other meats on the menu, but some may go elsewhere.

...

SYMANTEC CORP. $25.62 (Nasdaq symbol SYMC; TSINetwork Rating: Average)(408-517-8000; www.symantec.com; Shares outstanding: 690.2 million; Market cap: $17.7 billion; Dividend yield: 2.3%) is hiring engineers and licensing certain technology from Narus, a computer-security firm owned by Boeing Co. (symbol BA on New York). Narus has developed algorithms and software that can analyze large amounts of Internet traffic and filter out certain data. Its clients include the U.S. National Security Agency.

Symantec will use Narus’s technology to develop security software for corporations. Demand for these products should be strong, particularly after highprofile cyber attacks on Sony, Home Depot and Target.

Symantec is a buy.

...

HECLA MINING COMPANY $3.35 (New York symbol HL; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (208-769- 4100; www.hecla-mining.com; Shares outstanding: 367.4 million; Market cap: $1.2 billion) explores for, mines and processes silver and gold in the U.S. and Mexico.

In the three months ended December 31, 2014, Hecla produced 3.2 million ounces of silver, up 29.1% from 2.5 million a year earlier. Gold output rose 16.1%, to 54,671 ounces from 47,108.

All of Hecla’s mines have potential for higher output, although it’s cutting back on capital spending for now while it waits for higher gold and silver prices.

...

CARFINCO FINANCIAL $8.80 (Toronto symbol CFN; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (1-888-486-4356; www.carfinco.com; Shares outstanding: 26.5 million; Market cap: $232.9 million; Dividend yield: 3.4%) is down sharply since mid-January from $11.25 to today’s price. The company provides car loans to consumers who don’t meet the criteria of traditional lenders, like banks.

In November 2014, Carfinco’s shareholders voted to accept a friendly $11.25-a-share takeover bid from Spain’s Banco Santander SA (ADR symbol SAN on New York). The company’s directors and executive officers, who collectively own a 12.9% stake, also agreed to support the sale.

But neither Carfinco nor Santander have announced anything about the $268-million deal, which was expected to close by the end of 2014 or early this year. Santander has been in the news lately with the appointment of a new executive chairman, a share issue to raise 7.5 billion euros ($10.4 billion Canadian) to shore up its capital base and a dividend cut.

...

AEROPOSTALE INC. $2.78 (New York symbol ARO; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk)(646-485-5410; www.aeropostale.com; Shares outstanding: 79.1 million; Market cap: $220.0 million; No dividends paid) has risen over 20% since the clothing retailer said in early January 2015 that it expects to report a much smaller than expected loss in its 2014 fourth quarter.

The company now expects a fourthquarter loss of $0.25 to $0.31 share, compared to its earlier forecast of a $0.44-ashare loss. It has been cutting costs and selling more high-profit-margin clothing.

Aeropostale continues to face intense competition from other teen-clothing retailers. To restore its profitability, it plans to better market its products and keep cutting costs and refreshing its clothing lines. It’s also closing underperforming stores.

...

FIRSTSERVICE CORP. $63.43 (Toronto symbol FSV; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (416-960-9500; www.firstservice.com; Shares outstanding: 34.5 million; Market cap: $2.3 billion; Dividend yield: 0.7%) serves the following areas of the real estate market: commercial real estate, residential property management and property improvement. The company has more than 24,000 employees worldwide.

In the quarter ended September 30, 2014, FirstService’s revenue rose 13.5%, to $684.6 million from $603.0 million a year earlier (all figures except share prices in U.S. dollars). Excluding one-time items, earnings per share were $0.75, up 8.7% from $0.69.

Revenue rose at all three of FirstService’s divisions: Colliers International (commercial real estate), up 16%; FirstService Residential (residential property management), up 10%; and FirstService Brands (property services), up 12%. (FirstService Brands operates Paul Davis Restoration, California Closets and CertaPro Painters.)

...

WESTJET AIRLINES $32.05 (Toronto symbol WJA; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk)(1-877-493-7853; www.westjet.com; Shares outstanding: 127.8 million; Market cap: $4.1 billion; Dividend yield: 1.5%) serves 91 destinations in North America, Central America, the Caribbean and Europe. Its fleet of 109 modern Boeing 737s are 30% more fuel efficient than older jets.

In June 2013, the company launched WestJet Encore, its Canadian regional airline. This business now operates 14 Bombardier Q400 NextGen turboprop planes, which seat 78 passengers.

In the three months ended September 30, 2014, WestJet’s earnings, excluding one-time items, jumped 30.9%, to a third-quarter record of $85.4 million from $65.1 million a year earlier. Earnings per share gained 32.0%, to $0.66 from $0.50, on fewer shares outstanding. This was WestJet’s 38th consecutive quarter of profitability. Revenue rose 9.2%, to $1.0 billion from $924.8 million.

...

GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER CO. $25.57 (Nasdaq symbol GT; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (330-796-2122; www.goodyear.com; Shares outstanding: 274.6 million; Market cap: $6.8 billion; Dividend yield: 0.9%) expects to report lowerthan- expected profits in its soon-to-bereleased 2014 fourth-quarter results.

The company now expects fourth-quarter operating income growth to be below the 10% to 15% it originally forecast in October 2014. That’s because weak European sales and a decline in foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar are hurting the value of its international sales. Warmer-than-expected weather also hurt demand for winter tires.

However, Goodyear reaffirmed its 2015 targets and expects operating income growth of 10% to 15% to resume this year. The stock trades at just 8.1 times the company’s forecast 2015 earnings of $3.15 a share.

...

CALIAN TECHNOLOGIES $18.47 (Toronto symbol CTY; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (613- 599-8600; www.calian.com; Shares outstanding: 7.4 million; Market cap: $135.8 million; Dividend yield: 6.1%) operates in two areas: the business and technology services division (which supplies 70% of the company’s revenue) provides engineers, health care workers and other skilled professionals on a contract basis. The systems engineering division (30% of revenue) sells hardware and software for testing, operating and managing satellite and other communication systems.

In the three months ended September 30, 2014, the company earned $2.8 million, or $0.38 a share. That’s down 6.7% from $3.0 million, or $0.41, a year earlier. Revenue declined 5.4% in the latest quarter, to $54.4 million from $57.5 million.

The business and technology services division continues to benefit from recurring orders from Canadian federal government departments, including the Department of National Defence. This division’s revenue rose 5.4%.

...

SASOL LTD. (ADR) $34.47 (New York symbol SSL; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk)(082- 883-9697; www.sasol.com; ADRs outstanding: 650.8 million; Market cap: $22.5 billion; Dividend yield: 7.1%) has announced that it will proceed with building an $8.1-billion facility in Lake Charles, Louisiana that will convert natural gas into plastics and other products. The project, which will triple Sasol’s U.S. chemical production, will start up in 2018.

Major developments like this can add a lot of risk. But the plant will take advantage of cheap and abundant U.S. shale gas, as well as ethane-shipping infrastructure that’s already in place on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Expanding in the U.S. will also help Sasol offset some of the political and currency risks of operating mainly in South Africa.

...

CIMAREX ENERGY $102.82 (New York symbol XEC; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (303-295-3995; www.cimarex.com; Shares outstanding: 87.2 million; Market cap: $8.6 billion; Dividend yield: 0.6%) produces and explores for natural gas and oil. Gas makes up 50% of the company’s output.

Cimarex’s properties are mostly in the Wolfcamp shale area of the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, as well as the Cana-Woodford shale region in western Oklahoma.

In the three months ended September 30, 2014, Cimarex’s production averaged 942.4 million cubic feet of natural gas equivalent a day, up 31.5% from 716.8 million cubic feet a year earlier.

...

ATLANTIC TELE-NETWORK $65.04 (Nasdaq symbol ATNI; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (340-777-8000; www.atni.com; Shares outstanding: 15.9 million; Market cap: $1.0 billion; Dividend yield: 1.8%) is entering the solar energy market by acquiring 28 solar projects in Massachusetts, California and New Jersey for $103 million.

Atlantic will now operate the assets, which have 45.7 megawatts of capacity, through its newly created Ahana Renewable subsidiary. The projects’ power-purchase agreements range from 10 to 25 years.

Before the purchase, Atlantic held cash of $395.6 million, or $24.87 a share, so it can easily afford this acquisition.

...

Pat McKeough responds to many requests from Members of his Inner Circle for specific stock advice as well as questions on investment strategy and the economy. Every week, his comments and recommendations on the most intriguing questions of the past week go out to all Inner Circle Members. And each week we offer you a report on one of the stocks profiled in these Q&A sessions. We give you Pat’s buy-hold-sell recommendation as well as his analysis of the stock. This is part of the specific buy, hold and sell advice we offer you in our daily posts. Every week you get “A Stock to Sell” on Monday, “Best Canadian Stocks” on Tuesday, and “U.S. Stock Picks” on Thursday.

Recently we had a question from an Inner Circle member about one of America’s best-known venture capital firms, KKR &Co. Previously known as Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., the company earned notoriety when its leveraged buyout of Nabisco in the 1980s became the subject of a best-selling book and TV movie, Barbarians at the Gate. Pat looks at the company’s varied activities in the public, private and capital markets. He also assesses the strategies it is pursuing as it makes a flurry of deals aided by low borrowing rates.

Q: Pat: I was wondering if you could give me any information about KKR & Co. Your thoughts on it would be appreciated.

A: KKR & Co. LP (formerly Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. LP; symbol KKR on New York; www.kkr.com) is an asset manager with 14 offices across North America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Australia.

The company serves three main markets: private (investment funds); public (leveraged loans, high-yield bonds, special situation assets, distressed assets and rescue, debtor-in-possession and exit financings); and capital (debt/equity financing).

...

FAIR ISAAC CORP. $78.02 (New York symbol FICO; TSINetwork Rating: Average)(415-472-2211; www.fairisaac.com; Shares outstanding: 32.1 million; Market cap: $2.4 billion; Dividend yield: 0.1%) makes FICO Scores, the program that dominates the market for software that businesses use to evaluate customer creditworthiness. The company is also profiting by selling programs that help credit card issuers control fraud and analyze cardholders’ spending patterns.

In its fiscal 2014 fourth quarter, which ended September 30, 2014, Fair Isaac’s earnings per share rose 39.2%, to $1.10 from $0.79 a year ago.

Revenue gained 16.4%, to $221.6 million from $190.3 million. The company saw stronger sales at its main applications division (66% of the total) on increased licensing revenue from software that detects bank fraud.

...

BROADRIDGE FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS $46.55 (New York symbol BR; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (201-714-3000; www.broadridge.com; Shares outstanding: 120.0 million; Market cap: $5.6 billion; Dividend yield: 2.3%) serves the investment industry in three main areas: investor communications, securities processing and transaction clearing. The company processes 90% of all proxy votes in the U.S. and Canada.

Without one-time items, Broadridge earned $37.0 million, or $0.30 a share, in its fiscal 2015 first quarter, which ended September 30, 2014. That’s down 22.9% from $48.0 million, or $0.39 a share, a year earlier. The company paid employees higher commissions on new sales and performance bonuses. It also expanded its sales and marketing capabilities.

Broadridge typically makes about half of its profits in its fiscal fourth-quarter ended June 30. That’s the busiest period for processing proxies and annual reports for its clients.

...

ALIMENTATION COUCHETARD $44.55 (Toronto symbol ATD.B; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (1-800-361-2612; www.couchetard. com; Shares outstanding: 565.8 million; Market cap: $25.4 billion; Dividend yield: 0.4%) is buying The Pantry (symbol PTRY on Nasdaq), which operates more than 1,500 convenience stores in 13 southern U.S. states.

Couche-Tard will pay $1.7 billion—$ 860 million in cash and the assumption of $840 million of debt. This is its biggest purchase since it paid $2.7 billion U.S. for Norway’s Statoil Fuel & Retail gas station chain in June 2012.

Founded in 1967, The Pantry mainly grew through acquisitions beginning in the late 1980s. Like Couche-Tard, it focuses on selling higher-margin fresh food. It sells its own private-label bottled water and is the fifth-largest location for Subway restaurants.

...

DOREL INDUSTRIES $39.05 (Toronto symbol DII.B; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk) (514-731-0000; www.dorel.com; Shares outstanding: 32.3 million; Market cap: $1.3 billion; Dividend yield: 3.5%) makes a range of items, including ready-to-assemble home and office furniture; juvenile products, such as car seats, strollers, high chairs, toddler beds and cribs; and recreational goods, mainly bicycles.

Dorel has grown quickly over the last 10 years, with revenue doubling from $1.2 billion in 2003 to $2.4 billion in 2013 (all figures except share price and market cap in U.S. dollars). This period included two big acquisitions: France’s Ampa Group for $240 million in 2003 and Dorel’s 2004 purchase of Pacific Cycle for $310 million.

In late 2013, Dorel acquired 70% of money-losing Caloi, a major Brazilian bike maker, for $73.0 million. It has now integrated Caloi’s production from its big plant in Manaus, Brazil into its distribution and sales network to the point that it’s now adding to Dorel’s profits.

...

Every Thursday we bring you one of our best U.S. stock picks. You get our specific recommendation on the stocks we profile, with a full explanation of how we arrived at our opinion. You will read about stocks making moves you should know about, most often from coverage in our newsletter on U.S. investing, Wall Street Stock Forecaster.

GENERAL ELECTRIC CO. (New York symbol GE; www.ge.com) recently agreed to form a major new alliance with France’s Alstom SA, a leading maker of electrical-transmission equipment and parts for power plants.

Under the deal, GE will form three 50/50 joint ventures with Alstom. One will combine the companies’ electrical grid operations, while a second will focus on products for renewable energy projects, like offshore wind farms. The third will hold Alstom’s nuclear-equipment division.

...

Every Wednesday, we publish our “Investor Toolkit” series on TSI Network. Whether you’re a new or experienced investor, these weekly updates are designed to give you specific investment advice. Each Investor Toolkit update gives you a fundamental piece of investing strategy, and shows you how you can put it into practice right away.

Today’s tip: “To get the maximum reward from rising stocks, it’s essential to pick stocks with clear growth prospects and not simply momentum stocks with uncertain futures.”

By definition, growth stocks are companies that have above-average growth prospects. They are firms whose earnings growth has been above the market average, and is likely to remain above average. It is often the case that they pay small dividends or none at all. Instead, they re-invest their cash flow in the business, to promote their growth.

...

Every Tuesday we bring you “Best Canadian Stocks.” You get our specific recommendations on the stocks we profile, with a full explanation of how we arrived at our opinion. You’ll read about stocks making moves you should know about, from coverage in one of our three newsletters featuring Canadian stocks—The Successful Investor, Stock Pickers Digest and Canadian Wealth Advisor.

A sinkhole recently forced Russia’s Uralkali to close its Solikamsk-2 mine, which accounts for 20% of Uralkali’s potash production and 3.5% of global capacity.

Uralkali didn’t say how long it would take to reopen the mine, but it could close it permanently.

Regardless of the length of the shutdown, high potash inventories will continue to weigh on prices. Moreover, this year’s record U.S. harvest has hurt corn, soybean and wheat prices, prompting farmers to store excess crops while they wait for a rebound.

However, we feel that steady sales from Agrium’s retail stores give it an advantage over bulk fertilizer producers like Potash Corp.

...

Every Monday we feature “A Stock to Sell” as our daily post. With every stock or investment we recommend as a sell, we give you a full explanation of why we advise against investing in it at this time.

Arafura Resources $0.05 (symbol ARU on the Australian exchange; www.arultd.com), is an Australian firm with a rare earth property in the country’s Northern Territory.

Rare earth elements are a group of metals with unique characteristics. They are fairly common in the Earth’s crust, but due to their geochemical properties, these elements are usually dispersed and not routinely found concentrated as minerals in economically exploitable ore deposits. Thus the name “rare earth.”

...

Pat McKeough responds to many requests from Members of his Inner Circle for specific stock investment advice as well as questions on investment strategy and the economy. Every week, his comments and recommendations on the most intriguing questions of the past week go out to all Inner Circle Members. And each week we offer you a report on one of the stocks profiled in these Q&A sessions. We give you Pat’s buy-hold-sell recommendation as well as his analysis of the stock. This is part of the specific buy, hold and sell advice we offer you in our daily posts. Every week you get “A Stock to Sell” on Monday, “Best Canadian Stocks” on Tuesday, and “U.S. Stock Picks” on Thursday.

Recently an Inner Circle Member asked us about online travel specialists Priceline. The company offers online reservations for airline tickets, hotels and other vacation essentials and successfully raised its profile with commercials featuring Canadian actor William Shatner. Priceline has made several key acquisitions in the past two years and expects to make more. Pat looks at the company’s financial situation and assesses its ability to maintain a strong market share as it expands its international operations.

Q: What do you think about Priceline as a stock? Thanks.

...

We wish all of our readers a great year-end holiday and a healthy, happy and prosperous New Year. Please note that our next daily will appear on Friday, December 26.

Every Wednesday, we publish our “Investor Toolkit” series on TSI Network. Whether you’re a new or experienced investor, these weekly updates are designed to give you specific investment advice. Each Investor Toolkit update gives you a fundamental piece of investing strategy, and shows you how you can put it into practice right away.

...